Weather Pattern Never Seen Before!!! Ever......

There is warming in the Stratosphere in the past couple weeks to an extent not seen before in Jan. This usually takes places closer to March when spring is arriving. I included this picture of the atmospheric layers so you could see. The layer that our weather takes place in is the Troposphere. The warming in the Stratosphere will cause it to expand which will compress the Troposhpere causing it to cool. This would mean big continental arctic outbreaks, especially earlier in the winter like now. The other thing that makes this amazing is that it is happening during La-Nina. This is also very rare. According to Ed Berry he believes that this scenario will cause the blocking that has been happening over Greenland to shift to Canada and then to Alaska during the next few weeks. In that position it would take the strong Polar Jet from La Nina and force it South for a few weeks of storms pounding CA instead of the Pac NW & Canada. Models should begin to catch onto this and show more of a straight line of the storm train into CA over the next few weeks. One sign of this is that the models do show the NAO going towards positive the next few weeks which is a sign that the block/Arctic High will be shifting Westward away from Greenland. This pattern would mean big snows for the whole country in Feb. as the Southward shifted jetstream brings storms across the whole country & allows them to grab some moisture from the Gulf.

As far as the storm for this Friday, models back and forth a little on timing. Some have the cut-off stalling and waiting to be pushed in by a cold front which would start snow levels close to lake level and then drop them with 1-2 feet for everyone. Other models slow the cold front or even cause a second cut-off from it that follows the first cut-off. This would be a little less snow with snow levels starting above 7000 ft. and not falling quite as fast. Will have to keep watching because as the storm gets closer details will become more clear. Either way it should be a start to a major weather pattern change.

I won't go into anything farther than a week for now, especially with what is going on in the atmosphere globally. The models have never seen this before so how can they accurately predict very far out. Something that should be watched though. The ingredients to a big Feb./beginning of March are on the table. Let's hope they continue to come together just right. BA

I think we're in business!!!

Models finally coming around to the idea to a change in the pattern. The ridge should begin to move East starting Tuesday as a trough hitting it's backside splits forming a cut-off low. As you know these cut-offs are hard to predict. Latest models slow the progression of the cut-off. They have a cold front coming behind it that helps to push it into Central CA on Friday. This may be better as the snow levels will start high but come down much faster. Some models even suggesting a nice subtropical tap. This could be a decent storm.

A subsequent colder storm should come down on it's heels for the weekend. Unlike last weekend, this storm will be coming over water so it will be much more moist and provide more snow for the lower levels.

This should be a transition to a much colder and stormier pattern thru at least President's weekend. Will have to continue to iron out the details of the cut-off storm for later next week. BA

MJO a GO....

MJO currently near Indonesia on its way towards the Western Pacific. NWS catching on to the idea of this increasing storminess for the West Coast starting next week, but models have not yet. Be patient a change is coming. Nothing till at least next Wed. though. One interesting thing on the models is the amount of cold air they want to bring into the West for Feb. Either way it will not be January. Models should be singing new tune soon, and when they do I'll be the first to let you know. BA

Too Cold to Snow!.....

The first half of January we had a negative NAO & positive PNA pattern. The negative NAO causes a block to form over Greenland which forces storms up the East Coast. Once into Canada the storms help to drive frigid air from the Arctic down the Eastern half of the country. This forms a huge trough of cold air that can’t progress off the coast because of the block over Greenland. There is also a huge polar vortex this year, which is the mass of growing frigid air in the arctic. This will only help to make the cold air stronger.

Meanwhile the colder than normal water in the Pacific (La Nina) causes high pressures to form in the Eastern Pacific all winter, one after the next. This causes storms to be bumped north, which is why in La Nina years the Pac NW is usually above normal for precip. and the Southwest is below. As storms get stronger Jan-Mar they have better luck pushing the high pressures out of the way. With the block in place over Greenland and the trough stuck over the East, it causes the high pressures to get stuck over the West. Adding to the problem can be a positive PNA which causes larger high pressures over the Central & Eastern Pacific. This sends the storms north towards Alaska which limits their ability to squash the high pressures or sneak over them.

Good news is that the PNA is forecast to trend negative most of February. The bad news in the short term is that the NAO is forecast to go negative as well. There is a currently a train of huge storms lined up across the Pacific headed towards the West Coast. These storms will slam into the high and try to move it. Last week the high wasn’t expected to be as strong and the block wasn’t forecast to be in place, so the storm coming for Friday looked to just roll right into us. With the strong high being locked in place by the trough to the East, the storm will get demolished and whatever is left will just bring some cooler air.

The block over the East looks to finally move by the middle of next week. A storm on Wed. will push the ridge East but may also split and lose some energy as it hits the back of the strong high. Another Storm for the first weekend of Feb. looks to have better success but a high building back over the Eastern Pacific could keep the heaviest moisture to the north. One thing that may help the storms to be stronger and more effective is the possibility of an MJO circulation moving into the Western Pacific. This adds lots of fuel to the jetstream.

The flow of storms should be consistent without any blocks from next week and beyond. The only problems will be the constant re-emerging of a high in the Eastern Pacific taking the punch out of storms and trying to bump them North. La Nina was not forecast to be this strong the beginning of the season which is why season projections were so favorable. In La Nina our season can go either way since we are between the Northwest and Southwest. We need neutral conditions. Good news is that the ocean temps warmed a little in the past week.

The models aren’t very accurate more than a week out. That is why I wanted to do a post describing what patterns are happening globally. Things should get stormier for us in the next couple of weeks so continue to monitor the patterns and don’t get stuck on the dismal model forecasts for now. I am going to wait and post again when the models finally catch on to the pattern change and possible MJO influence for next week. Meanwhile, get out and enjoy the fresh snow and sunny skies! BA

A Few More Flakes.......

One last piece of energy sliding down the coast behind the trough this morning. This may trigger some additional snow showers thru this evening, so I won't give final accumulations until tomorrow morning. We could still pick up a few more inches.

Northstar picked up another 4 inches on top yesterday bringing the 4 day total to 2 ft. even, with about a half foot at the bottom. Storm didn't take the favorable over water path, but more of a path over land. Still, everyone got some decent snow to resurface the trails. A lot of the shower activity got hung-up on the crest yesterday. Areas along the Sierra crest reported 6-14 additional inches, with 32-42 inches as a 4 day total. Sierra at Tahoe got 11 inches yesterday bringing their 4 day total to 34 inches. They could break 3 ft. with the snow showers from today. So far over 4 days 2-3.5 ft. for everyone on top. The Sierra crest is now only 3 ft. short of the halfway point to get to average snowfall for the year, and Northstar is about 1 ft. short. We are just about halfway thru the 4 snowiest months.

One more day of cold tomorrow and then we warm up into the 40's with sun thru the weekend. Inversion should also start to form at night. Storm activity should return in about 7-10 days, and should last for a while once it starts. These will be colder and more moist storms off of the Pacific. BA

Sun. A.M.

Another 4 inches reported at Northstar overnight. Band of heavy snow that occured last night between 9-11 fell apart rather quickly as the low moved East into NV just to our North instead of sliding South. Another heavier band is just now forming over the area along the cold front. Snow showers should continue thru the day and get enhanced one last time this evening as the last wave of engergy slides over us. Snow showers should diminish overnight.

Northstar has a 4 day total of 20 inches up top according to their 24 hour snow totals chart. Areas along the crest have received 23-28 inches with Sierra at Tahoe reporting 27 inches so far. I will update snowfall potential if the storm track shifts. BA

It's Dumping!!!

Cold front is currently pushing thru the area and is producing a burst of heavy snow. Already a couple of inches at lake level. Cold front will continue to push South and East. Main storm is spinning just north of Tahoe. This is where a consistent band of heavy snow has setup. Track of this center is critical because it is headed East-Southeast. Models right now have it staying just North and we get continued snow showers overnight after the cold front and heavy band push thru. If it tracks a little closer we will get heavier snow. Basically the further North you are the more snow you will get.

Should be a slight lull in activity Sunday morning and then another storm sliding down the coast arrives during the day and enhances snowfall activity into Sunday night. After the low passes, things should wind down by Monday morning. Models are not handling this second low very well because it's hard to say how much moisture it will have because the track is critical. We may just have to wait and see what we have Monday morning with this storm. Total liquid overnight on latest models is .5 inches, but just to our north it has 1-1.25 inches. At .5 with 20:1 snow ratios on top of the mtn. that is 10 inches by tomorrow and 5 inches at lake level at 10:1 ratios. Could be more if the heavy band comes a little further south. Should be several more inches with the second wave Sunday into Sunday night. Still thinking over a foot on top. Hopefully will be able to have a better idea in the morning.

Ridge develops just offshore of NorCal around 130w which pushes storms up into the Pac NW thru next weekend. Cold air Tuesday moderates with highs in the 40's by next weekend, but cold nights. By next weekend the ridge starts to get flattened by storm activity and should reform at around 150w. This should allow a chance at a couple of cold storms the first week of Feb.

According to Ed Berry's latest discussion, MJO is finally back on the scene! Currently over Africa it should be in the Western Pacific by the first week of Feb, with another on its heals for mid-Feb. This adds confidence to a ridge out around 150-160w and would add lots of juice to the jetstream. PNA is also forecasted to tank negative in February which should mean no more ridges for a while! I told you I had a good feeling about February. Hopefully we can catch back up to average snowfall on the season! BA

Update 9 a.m.

As second storm moves away and third one approaches conditions for shower activity has diminished over North Lake Tahoe. Expect breaks of sun today with passing snow showers. As the front gets closer later today shower activity should once again increase. Best set-up for heavier snow showers has shifted to South Lake Tahoe. Places like Sierra at Tahoe continue to get dumped on as we speak.

The fluffy stuff......

Snow levels hovered around 7000 ft. overnight with a couple inches at that elevation and then a half foot on top reported overnight at Northstar. Most resorts reporting the same and 12-18 inches is the two day total for everyone (except a resort south of South Lake reporting 2 ft., but they are alot higher).

The cold front is already beginning to move into Northern CA this morning and temps are beginning to fall. Snow levels should fall througout the day to lake level and the colder air moving in should trigger snow showers most of the day. As the flow is turning more Westerly off the ocean the heaviest precip is getting caught up on the crest which is normal. Accumulations could reach another half foot on top of the mountains with lighter accumulations down lower. Don't think you will see much accumulation at lake level as the sun thru the clouds should melt it on surfaces during the day.

Tonight into Sunday the cold front blasts thru with an inside slider storm to follow Sunday night into Monday. Temps will be cold and snow levels below valley floors, so the snow will be fluffy powder and will pile up much faster. Should see a heavier burst of snow for a few hours as the cold front comes thru tomorrow. Then snow showers thru Monday morning. Still not exactly sure the track of the storm sliding down the Mountains Sunday night. The difference in track could mean a little more or lesss snow. Still, another foot+ could fall over the two days up high with 6-12 inches at lake level.

Models pretty much all agree now to move the storms out by Monday night instead of stalling off the coast. Temps should stay pretty cool all week. Looks like about a week of clear skies as a ridge sits offshore but then it is squashed and retrogrades out to Hawaii opening the storm door to cold snowy storms. We'll have to see what Ed Berry has to say today in his blog. BA

Update 10 P.M. Friday........

Not much change. Going with same forecast as earlier, except storm has slowed. Heavier precip not going to show up until the early morning hours. Snow levels above 7000 dropping to lake level during the day Saturday. 6-12 inches above 7000 ft.

Storm for Sunday trending back a little more over water but not stalling. This storm is cold so high snow to water ratios. This is fluffy powder that will pile up much faster than what we have seen from the previous two storms.

I am looking for a big powder dump like everyone else. I am just trying to make the best of what we have to work with here this weekend. It's better than sunshine and dry air. I am still looking for the storm door to break open the first week of Feb. BA

Friday Morning Update.....

Brief break and ridge between systems this morning causing fog. Temps have risen a little up to 40 in town. Snow levels are up above 7000 ft. Low off the coast will steer some waves of moisture up the Sierra from the south later today into Saturday morning. Snow levels overnight will be around 7000 ft. for the heaviest precip and then fall to 6000 ft. tomorrow morning. Over a foot is possible above 8000 ft. with up to a half foot above 7000 ft. Left over snow showers during the day tomorrow could accumulate a few inches all the way to lake level, with temps in the low-mid 30's.

Models now showing final system coming down more over land than water for Sunday. This is a cold storm but the over land movement will lower snowfall totals. Still should see some decent snows of up to foot on the mountain and half foot in Town with temps only in the 20's. 12z models have a wave of energy diving in behind the cold front on Monday which would sustain snow showers possibly into Tuesday. The track of this storm is critical so we will have to just keep monitoring it. The duration of snow showers may be what piles up with this storm. This set-up is similar to the Dec.16th storm where the snow showers after the cold front kept piling up.

Could be 10 days of ridging before retrogression and more storms the first week of Feb., so hopefully we get some good snow by Tuesday. BA

One Down Two to Go!

People are sitting at home all worried about the rain out their window. It's snowing on the mountains! Most resorts including Northstar have lifts that start at mid-mtn and higher. Northstar even has one called Rendevous that services the top bowl and starts at like 8000 ft. I have had some great powder days where it's raining in the parking lot but dumping up on the mountain. Just thought I'd throw that out there since everyone seems so intent on snow levels.

Storm #1 is just about wrapped up. Just some left over snow showers. Lesson learned from today is that snow levels are trending about 1000 ft. lower than models predicted and during heavier bursts Cold air is drawn to the surface and it snows at lake level. Today it snowed off and on above 6300 ft. and was all snow above 7000 ft. on the mountain. Looks like accumulations started at about an inch or two at 7000 ft. then more as you went up. All resorts reporting 6-12 inches on top as of this afternoon.

Storm #2 is just off the coast headed our way. This storm will tap some good moisture and should bring some decent snowfall tomorrow afternoon thru Saturday. There is not the subtropical tap from the baja this time so snow levels shouldn't be as high. It will not have a lot of cold air though either. Snow levels should be around 7000 ft. then falling on Saturday to lake level. The heavier precip should be done by then so only a light accumulation at lake level but another 6-12 inches on top of the mtns. I think the bigger accumulations can come lower with this storm. Will be another wait and watch situation.

Sunday storm showing up slower which is good. Most models have it coming down off the coast which is also good for picking up moisture. One model shows it a little drier coming down over the Sierra. Snow levels will start at lake level with this storm. Up to a foot is the call for everyone with more up high as the snow piles up faster with this storm with higher water to snow ratios as temps will only be in the 20's on top of the mountains. With the slower progression and the storm stalling off the coast, snow showers could last until wednesday after the heavy precip is over on Monday.

I don't know if anyone cares right now about the extended. A ridge will build in off the Pac NW coast. This will give us a northerly wind and keep us cold the remainder of next week. It will also bump storms up into Canada. This ridge looks to flatten then reform out at 150w the first week of Feb. allowing bigger colder storms to return to Tahoe. BA

Update.........

Snow levels down around 7000 ft. Webcams show Sierra with snow to the bottom, & snowing over Donner Summit. Reports north of tahoe of 5500 ft. snow levels. I think we are right around 6800 ft. currently with temps dropping slightly on the peaks. This is obviously a good sign.

Thursday Morning Tweaking.....

If you seen rain don't worry this is a 6 day storm, 4 of which will have snow levels at or below lake level.

Northstar reporting 3 inches so far on top as of 5 a.m. and some resorts on the crest reporting up to 5. Accumulating snows have been confined to above 7500 ft., although there are wet snowflakes falling at the base lodge and a mix in the village this morning with a temp of 34.

Abundant subtropical moisture, more than expected, is pulling northward this morning. This will keep snow levels up a little higher than thought yesterday. They should hover around where they are now, at or just below 8000 ft. thru tomorrow. Moderate-Heavy precip should continue into the evening as the main low moves across NorCal during the day. Up to an inch of liquid so up to a foot is possible above 8000 ft. by tonight.

There should be a break in the action later tonight into tomorrow as the first low departs, but don't rule out showers. Next storm dives in Friday night into Saturday. Snow levels will start at 8000 then fall to lake level (6000 ft.) by early Sat. morning. This storm could drop another inch of liquid so depending on how fast snow levels drop will make a big difference in how much snow you get depending on your elevation. Above 8000 could get an addition foot by Saturday.

Not much break before the final storm hits on Sunday. This storm has snow levels starting out around 5000 ft. then falling, so lots of snow for everyone. The cold front combined with a low stalling off the coast could bring an additional 1-2 feet above 7000 ft., with up to a foot at lake level by Monday. Depending on the position of the low and how long it stalls, snow showers could linger into Tuesday & Wednesday with additional accumulations.

All said and done we are still on track for 2-4 feet on top of the Mountains by Wed. and over a foot at lake level. I will update tonight on any snow level changes and snowfall amounts. BA

WED. PM UPDATE.......

Still on track. Snow level 8000 tonight dropping to 7000ft. tomorrow with heavy wet snow above those levels. 2-4 tonight and 2-4 inches tomorrow where it stays all snow. Snow level dropping to 6500 ft. tomorrow night and holding thru Saturday with more heavy wet snow as a storm sets up off the coast. The amounts get tricky Fri-Wed. as it isn't clear exactly where the low sets up. Either way we should get a decent shot of snow on Sunday with the cold front and low off the coast, with snow levels falling to valley floors thru Monday. Temps get a couple of degrees colder each day. Models still show 2-3 feet possible where it stays all snow up high by Wed. Could be more could be a little less. Stay tuned!...BA

Keep it UP!!!

The praying & snow dances that is. Some amazing developments over the past 24hrs. We need to try and not get too excited just because we are snow starved, and just look at the positives that it is going to snow over the next seven days. Don't want to overhype the details in each model run the next 4 days. That can get exhausting.

Let's look at the facts. The computer models over the past 24 hrs. have been trending wetter and wetter(that is snowier for us in the mtns), and there has been a greater and greater concensus between the different models. That builds confidence in the forecast, especially less than 5 days away.

Ok, Ok, so here is the latest as of this morning.....There has been a slight increase in precip amounts tonight and Thursday morning with models now showing .5-.75 inches of liquid which would be about 6-9 inches of snow above 8000ft. Snow levels will start at 8000ft. then fall tomorrow to 7500 in the morning and 7000 by the afternoon when there is a break in precip.

New on the models is a closed low that dives in right behind the departing storm on Friday with a decent jet associated with it. Snow levels will be down to 6500 ft. with models showing the same amount of liquid as the Thursday storm. So another 6-9 inchest above 6500ft.

Most models are in agreement now with the cold front coming far West off the coast on Saturday and forming a cut-off low off the CA coast on Sunday. The cold front alone will drop snow levels to valley floors and models have over an inch of liquid which would be a foot of snow just on Sunday.

All models have the low stalling off the coast for a few days. Only differences are the position of the low & how long it sits. The closer to the coast the longer it sits, the more precip we get. Latest GFS model this morning has the low sitting fairly close to the coast and then heading East next Thursday. It has and additional 1.5-3 inches of liquid over the 4 day period which would be another 15-30 inches of snow.

These snow amounts are just based on a 10:1 ratio at 32 degrees. Amounts would be higher up high and lower down low and would change based on actual snow level and temps. The details obviously will have to be ironed out. But I like the agreement on all the models for 3 storms now thru Sunday with a couple feet of snow possible up on the mountain. Stay tuned, the probability increases each day. BA

Update 10 P.M. Tuesday.

Midnight model run just in. If you have access to a GFS model run it! It's in a dream world. Has the front even further west for Sunday with the low stalling off of the CA coast for a couple of days then coming back onshore. It also has the storm absorbing the cut-off coming across the Pacific. It snows for a few days with 3-4 feet+. I will update in the A.M. after looking at other models and the new morning run. We are 5 days away. Consider this an outlier on the extremeley good end, but it's a good sign and something good to go to bed and dream about. BA

Tuesday P.M. Post.......

I know that everyone is extremely antsy for any flakes to fall, including myself, so I will be posting more often until we can get some snow.

No change in storm outlook for Wed-Thurs other than that model runs today want to have lingering moisture stick around thru Friday. Still looking at about 6 inches above 8000 ft.

Sun-Mon. storm continuing to look colder farther West. It could actually be quite cold out by Monday. This is also a wetter scenario. Latest models now have .5-1.0 inches of liquid which would be around 6-12 inches or more with higher snow ratios. We will have to keep watching this.

Everyone keeps asking about the BIG storm. I wouldn't dare say yet then be wrong. Models have no consistency. But keep an eye on next weekend for a cold storm with decent moisture. I'm looking for the ridge to build out at 150-160w, the magic spot. Some model runs showing this the first week of Feb. This would make sense given the atmospheric pattern. All eyes on the first week of Feb. BA

Tuesday A.M. Update.....

Weakening storm is currently approaching the Northern CA coast. One last day today of mild temps and sun. Ahead of the storm it is tapping a nice area of moisture off of the baja. This will send moisture northward, getting to our area sometime tomorrow afternoon. The southerly flow will also raise snow levels to around 8000ft. The main storm and front will quickly move thru by Thursday morning lowering snow levels to around 7000 ft. This morning models have increased the total precip making it up this far north to around .25-.5 inches north of the lake, and .5-.75 inches south of the lake. Where it stays all snow above 8000 ft. that would be 3-6 inches north lake and 6-9 south around our friends at Sierra at Tahoe. Below that would be less and only rain below 7000 ft.

Second Cut-off low now looks to wander off the coast and then head south out in the ocean. I was really hoping this one would come onshore. Still has a chance to, and if it comes close enough it could at least direct some moisture flow off the ocean towards us over the weekend. Meanwhile an arctic front is headed down the Rockies and it could come as far West as the coast. The farther West it comes the colder the air we get and more snow. Right now it looks to bring more cold air than snow with just a few inches at best. If it can come further West and the storm off the coast can come close enough, we could be in business. We will have to wait and see.

Ridge sets up just off the coast next week shunting storms into the Pac NW. It looks to get flattened and allow storms for next weekend, then reform at 140w. We really need it to move back to 150-160w. It should happen do to tropical forcing, just waiting for the unreliable models to catch on. BA

Model Mayhem....

I have waited all weekend to post because I have been watching the models and trying to come up with some sort of reasonable forecast for this week. Overall not much change from the Friday night post. Two more days of mild temps and sun as the MASSIVE ridge is shifting East. The trough headed towards us for Wednesday is still on track as well. The problem in the details is the back side of the ridge as it leaves, with it's dry air that is going to try and rip apart the first couple troughs that run into the back of it. This will be a progressive process to get wetter & wetter storms to affect us. The good news is that the storm door is finally back open.

Trough for wednesday looks to split with a cut-off low diving into SoCAl. There is some moisture off of the baja that it can tap and send moisture northward. Snow levels will be fairly high, above 7000ft. Most places that see accumulation should be south of Tahoe. I think we only get clouds with some flakes up on the mountain. The air will get much colder starting wednesday with highs only in the 30's on the mountain, 40's in town. Inversions will be erased as well.

Another trough making its way towards us gets split and a cut-off low comes under a ridge forming in the gulf of Alaska. This low looks to possibly team up with a trough coming down the West coast on Saturday, as a ridge forms off the coast around 130-140w which surges north cuttting the energy off from the jet. The storm could sit over us for a couple of days and deliver some healthy snowfall. Some models don't like this solution though and don't have a trough joining the storm and high pressure moving it out quickly. This disagreement is one of the reasons I have been waiting to post. We will just have to wait and see.

The week of the 25th the ridge offshore looks to get flattened by a large trough that is much wetter and comes in by the end of the week into the weekend. I have liked the looks of this storm for a while now.

Going into the first week of Feb. the ridge finally builds out around 160-170w. Let's hope this can lock in. This should allow storms to come in very wet that week. I still have a good feeling about February. Ed Berry mentioned in his Saturday discussion that the West Coast trough pattern should fully mature by week three bringing similar affects as the end of December. That would mean over 100 inches of snow the first two weeks of Feb. I hope he's right! BA

Our friends to the East.

It was mentioned in an earlier post that the cold coming into the East this week could be the coldest in years. Well it ended up being the coldest in over a 100 years for some places and an all time record for others. The last 3 nights some extremely cold air has been pouring from the Arctic into the middle and Eastern half of the country. Part of the reason why we have had a ridge. I wanted to take a minute in this post to recognize some of the record breaking cold. The following are some of the records set and the old record & the year the old record was set.

- Aberdeen, SD: -42 [-35 in 1972]
- Sioux City, IA: -20 [-18 in 1972]
- Cedar Rapids, IA: -26 [-23 in 1994]
- Dubuque, IA: -25 [-25 in 1888]
- Burlington, IA: -18 [-18 in 1994]
- Spencer, IA: -27 [-27 in 1972]
- Mobridge, SD: -33 [-30 in 1972]
- Sisseton, SD: -31 [-29 in 1972]

Bismarck, ND was top winner yesterday at -44 which is only one degree off the record of -45 set in 1916. Today's top winner was amazing!!! Big Black River, Maine reported -50 this morning. If this is verified it will be the all time lowest temperature in the state's recorded history! Just about every state in the interior Northeast hit -20 to -40 last night.

Helping these temperatures may be the record pace of accumulating sea ice in the Arctic. Last week a report had the sea ice back to 1979 levels. Also helping is back to back years of La Nina and cold ocean temps, as well as two years of falling global annual temp averages. Bismarck, ND is also on pace for their snowiest year on record. To date it is the snowiest year on record with 61" so far. I thought such an extreme event needed to be talked about. It is affecting our weather here by blocking progression of the ridge from hell we have had the past few weeks.

Update on Our Weather:

I have been talking about the pattern change that is going to occur next week for a couple of weeks now. I need to emphasize that this is a significant event because it will begin the removal of the big strong ridge that has dominated our weather. It will not be significant because of a big snowstorm. Ridges as strong as what we have right now need to be beaten down and storms will get stronger with time. There will however be a big pattern change with a progressive flow and much cooler air.

Of note is that the snow pack here in the Sierra has survived much better than I thought it would have. With light winds at night the temps have been so cold in the valley's, near 10 in Truckee almost every night, that it takes a lont time for the temps to hit their high during the day. The temps only get into the 50's for a few hours before the sun goes down and temps drop. This time of year is also a very low sun angle which limits snowmelt. After3 weeks of no snow there is still snow on the ground everywhere including Martis Valley. So we have done very well and now we have a good base build on.

Models now in concensus that the ridge will reform out at 140w. A storm will try to dive down the West coast with cold air but the ridge will expand north towards Alaska and pinch off the storm from the jet stream. This cut-off low will then slowly come on shore over CA trying to bring moisture under the ridge but there won't be much to work with. Temps will cool down starting Tuesday and should only be in the 30's by Wed. with a chance for snow showers on the mountains with snow levels above 6000 ft. This will not be a big snow event but big in the fact that the ridge is gone and storms are starting to arrive with cooler air.

Latest models show the ridge then retrograding out to 150w and surging toward Alaksa once again the weekend of the 24th, pinching off another cut-off low that possibly gets some subtropical moisture and hits CA on Tuesday the 27th. Ridge then flattens at 150w allowing bigger storms, associated with the jet stream this time, to start striking CA later in the week. I really think the big storms finally get going right at the very end of the month going into the first week of Feb.

Tomorrow Ed Berry's discussion comes out, so I will definitely be discussing the long range in more detail tomorrow night. BA

It only gets better from here........

The big high pressure causing our ridge is on the move. It is slowly beginning to move East towards the Rockies. This will enhance our wind flow out of the East. Normally that would cool us down quite a bit but with the warm air that has formed in the ridge over the past week it will only cool us down a few degrees. Starting tomorrow thru Tuesday, temps will be in the upper 40's to around 50 on the mountain and low 50's in the valley. Overnight lows will be in the 30's on the mtn. and 20's in the valley. This will start to cool a few degrees more by Tuesday.

Models in a little bit of a disagreement with the pattern change for next week, but they are starting to come together. Both models bring in colder air starting next wednesday the 20th and some sort of storm. Difference is the GFS model shows the high pressure out at 140w with a storm coming down the coast & lots of cold air. The Euro model shows the ridge out at 140w but up towards the gulf of Alaska which would force some precip to go under the ridge into Central CA. This would be a slightly less cold solution with snow levels above 6000 ft., but more moisture. The latest GFS run this morning shows a combination of the two with some moisture coming under the ridge on Wed. & then a storm down the coast with cold air right on its heels for Friday. A storm down the coast can be complicate precip wise because depending on how much over water trajectory it has, determines whether it will bring snow showers or a big dump. The storm that started off the big snows of Dec. on the 15th was a cold storm that slid down the coast but we got lucky & it picked up good moisture off the ocean & it dumped 2-3 feet of fluffy powder. Either way there is a change coming the middle of next week with colder air and some sort of precip. Keep up the snow dances.

Anything further out than a week on the models during a big pattern change like this is to be looked at with caution, but I love putting my neck on the line. Feel a little more confident with what models show since it is in line with Ed Berry's predictions of the global pattern. Currently it looks likes the ridge in the Gulf of Alaska briefly shifts into the Pac NW following next weeks storm, shutting off precip and moderating temps for 3-4 days. But it keeps moving East as we are in a progressive flow now. Ridge then forms out at 160w over Hawaii and allows a big storm to finally hit us around the 29th-30th, with another storm behind that. At the same time tropical activity in the southwest Pacific is really heating up and getting ready to pump the jet stream. I have a good feeling about February.........BA

Models Catching On!..........

Thought I'd start with an interesting figure. After having 98% of average precip in Dec. for the Tahoe basin our snowpack as of our last storm on Jan. 2nd is 85% of average as compared to 55% the same time last year. The snow season is still early and we have plenty of time to get some big storms to catch up and even go ahead of average.

Not much change for the next week, possibly exactly a week starting today. The large ridge will drift to a postion directly over us today and stall. Today should be the warmest day as the winds stay light. Temps started out at 10 degrees this morning in Truckee, but by this afternoon everyone should be well into the 50's. Models even indicate a layer of warmer air in the 60's between the valleys and the crests, so that could be a decent portion of the mountain for skiing today, so dress in layers. Temps won't be as warm as today but mild in the 50's thru the weekend. Saving grace for snowmakers will be very low dewpoints in the single digits!

Pattern change is very evident now on the models as they are catching on to the idea of a retrgression in both the PNA and the ridge along the West Coast. The latest model run this morning shows the trough in the East beginning to move offshore starting Monday the 19th. This will allow a progressive flow to start up once again. At the same time it shows the ridge over the West coast beginning to shift East and another ridge forming out at about 140w in the Pacific. This allows the cold arctic air to sink westward into our area by the middle of next week. With the ridge in this location storms would come down just to our East drawing down some very cold air, and possibly setting off some snow showers with the cold unstable air.

Models also catching onto the idea of further retrogression of the ridge in the Pacific out to near 150-160w by the week of the 25th. The PNA is also forecasted to be negative by this time. This allows the cold air to stay as well as opens the storm door to storms coming in straight off the ocean with moisture. The models should continue to catch onto this pattern change and become more consistent once the change begins to take place. I will keep you updated on the coming cold and snow, until then get out and wash your car or do something to jinx the warm weather. BA

January Thaw.....February Freeze

So here we go, break out the sunscreen and the t-shirts. Today begins the 1-2 weeks of warm, dry, spring like weather. La Nina is in full force and is currently reloading itself in the Western Pacific as we wait for extreme cold in other parts of the globe, throwing a wrench into our cold & stormy patern, to get out of the way. We have already discussed the +PNA that has taken hold of our pattern and the extreme cold beginning to sink into the Eastern half of the country. Each of these events are pumping a Giant ridge over the West Coast bringing us a prolonged period of warm and dry conditions.

Changes will begin to occur the week of the 18th. PNA models show it beginning to head towards negative after the 16th of the month. Models also begin to show retrogression of the ridge starting the week of the 18th. The results at first will begin to bring colder air in the region. Further retrogression by the last week of the month out to 150-160w will bring a return to stormy weather. With La Nina in full force and tropical activity increasing in the West Pacific we should be in for a stormy end to January that could last well into February.

Models are already starting to show the colder air retreating in the East and spreading towards the West Coast the week of the 18th. Storm activity will also begin to increase to our north and we may be able to get some unsettled weather. We need to looks towards the last week of January for further retrogression of the ridge to 150w so that we can start getting the big storms that we want. So just hold on, this time next week things should start getting more interesting.

Meanwhile large inversions and clear skies will cause temps to hit the low 20's this week in the valleys and only the mid 30's or low 40's up high. Daytime temps will be in the 50's for everyone. May be warmer up high as they won't need as long to warm with higher overnight temps. BA

Friday 1/9

No change yet, don't worry I'm working hard to make it snow. Starting Sunday everyone will be in the 50's. Inversions at night with lows in the 20's in the valleys and not hitting freezing above 7000 ft. Changes in the pattern still no track for the week of the 18th but that doesn't mean a big storm yet. We need to get a trough and that is hard to do when there is a trough on the Eastern side of the country.

Eastern half of the country could have the biggest cold outbreak next week since 1997 with snow really far south. For the presidential innauguration there could be snow on the ground and lows near 0 that morning in D.C. Up in Alaska they are having one of the biggest cold outbreaks in history with temps hitting -60 in places for more than a week. All this cold loves land and it's heavy so it sinksdown across the country causing a huge trough. We need the ridge over the West Coast to back up so some of that air can come to us. That is hard to do with blocking off the East coast holding the cold there. Will have to wait and watch. Ironically our warmth and lack of snow is due to extreme cold in other areas of the globe and cold oceans.

I will get into a nice long range discussiong tomorrow in detail. BA

Wednesday P.M.

Ridge is moving in off the ocean a little faster. This will help to keep the Thursday storm to our East which is what I had originally thought. Models yesterday were showing it come a little more South first so I had to mention the chance of 3-6 inches. I wouldn't expect more than a dusting as the front goes by. Temps will also not get quite as cold. They will only cool a few degrees in town, staying in the mid 40's. Will dip into the 30's on the mountain for a day on Friday then quickly returning to the 40's.

Long Range models showing the ridge a little slower to retrograde the week of the 18th. Storm activity and cooler air should return to the Pac NW but may hold off on us till the last week of the month. I'll keep you posted. Enjoy the nice weather. BA

Tuesday Update....

Not much has changed. See Sunday post for long range discussion in detail. Temps will continue to be mild tomorrow with inversions setting up at night. Thurs night/Fri storm looks to brush us and give as a quick shot of snow and colder air. Storm is pretty wimpy with no moisture but Tahoe could be in the favorable location of the jet as the cold front comes thru. Models show up to a .5 inch of liquid Thursday night which translates to 3-6 inches of snow with snow levels starting at 6000 ft. then falling. Colder air for Friday with highs in the 30's and lows in the teens.

We will quickly warm back into the 40's as the ridge moves in and strengthens over the weekend. By the middle of next week we should be in the 50's with lots of sun. If ridge is as strong as some models predict we could have some places break 60. Lows in the 20's at night with inversions setting up.

Still looks as if the ridge will begin to retrograde back over the ocean starting the weekend of the 17th. Colder air and unsettled/stormy weather should start to return the week of the 18th, although big storms may hold off till the last week of the month when the ridge retrogrades further back towards it's magical location of 150w. BA

Dejavu?.....

Another beautiful crisp day today wtih temps remaining in the 20's. Great corduroy conditions. Clouds will be on the increase tonight as a huge storm hits the Pac NW bringing up to 3 feet to our old friends up at the Summit. Meanwhile a ridge moves in to SoCal today off of the Pacific. This will keep any moisture from the storm to our north. There may be a flurry or two tomorrow as the flow switches off the ocean and warmer air begins to override and mix with the cold air currently in place, but no accumulations.

The pattern of storms to our north will continue thru the week bringing us clouds from time to time. The flow will be from the west and temps will warm into the 40's all week, maxing out on Thursday in the upper 40's with places near town near 50. Thurs night/Fri a final storm will slide down inside of us changing the flow to northeast thru the weekend which will bring temps back down to the low-mid 40's with lots of sun. This will help by holding off the really warm temps as a big ridge begins to move in off the Pacific.

The ridge that moves in next weekend will bring well above normal temps for the week of the 11th and will re-direct all storms all the way up into British Columbia. Temps could hit the 60's in the lower elevations if the models are accurate with the size and position of this ridge. This will also coincide with a negative NAO and huge trough over the rest of the country. Watch the news because you may see reports of the coldest air to come into the northern plains in years.

By the following weekend (18th of Jan.), the negative NAO begins to break down and the ridge over the West Coast begins to retrograde back out over the ocean. This is evident on the models as they show the East Coast warming and storm activity returning to the Pac NW. Further retrogression of the ridge out towards Hawaii looks to return storm activity and cold to the West Coast and the Sierra around the 20th.

It looks as if ocean temps in the Pacific have continued to cool baffling most forecasters who thought we would have neutral conditions this year, or at most a weak La Nina. La Nina looks to be in full force now. Implications for the middle of Jan.-March will be quite similar to last year. The Pac NW will continue to get slammed and we should get quite a bit of snow as well. The good thing with La Nina is that although we may not get as big of storms, it is usually quite cold and almost all storms have very low snow levels. Will have to continue to watch things unfold, but looks like good things will come to those who wait once again. Just hold on for about two weeks. Meanwhile get out and enjoy the sweatshirt riding weather. BA

Dec. Re-Cap

First let's get this storm out of the way. Front is weakening as it is approaching. Still, a decent batch of moisture is aimed at us as we speak. Gonna hold with 5-10 inches, will have to see what happens with the cold post frontal showers. The rest of the weekend will be cold.

December, after a bad start, ended up fairly good for us. Temps ended up 3.4 degrees below normal for the month. We have averaged -3.8 for Dec. the past two years and -.3 over the past 10 years. We have netted -3.4 over the past 10 years, so Dec. continues to lower our avg. temp for the month.

Precip was at 85% of normal with just over 4ft. reported at the airport which is where these figures are tracked. Obviously much more fell on the mountains. Most people thought I was crazy on Dec. 12th when it was 65 degrees and the mountain was brown and I said we would finish the month with over 100". Well Northstar finished the month with 77" at mid-mtn. and 116" on top. Along the crest reports averaged over 120" or over 10 ft. for the 2 week period. Not too bad.

Ridge still set to move in next week with temps in the 40's with tons of sun. Temps in the 50's with tons of sun the following week. The pattern should begin to change around the weekend of the 18th. BA