So here we go, break out the sunscreen and the t-shirts. Today begins the 1-2 weeks of warm, dry, spring like weather. La Nina is in full force and is currently reloading itself in the Western Pacific as we wait for extreme cold in other parts of the globe, throwing a wrench into our cold & stormy patern, to get out of the way. We have already discussed the +PNA that has taken hold of our pattern and the extreme cold beginning to sink into the Eastern half of the country. Each of these events are pumping a Giant ridge over the West Coast bringing us a prolonged period of warm and dry conditions.
Changes will begin to occur the week of the 18th. PNA models show it beginning to head towards negative after the 16th of the month. Models also begin to show retrogression of the ridge starting the week of the 18th. The results at first will begin to bring colder air in the region. Further retrogression by the last week of the month out to 150-160w will bring a return to stormy weather. With La Nina in full force and tropical activity increasing in the West Pacific we should be in for a stormy end to January that could last well into February.
Models are already starting to show the colder air retreating in the East and spreading towards the West Coast the week of the 18th. Storm activity will also begin to increase to our north and we may be able to get some unsettled weather. We need to looks towards the last week of January for further retrogression of the ridge to 150w so that we can start getting the big storms that we want. So just hold on, this time next week things should start getting more interesting.
Meanwhile large inversions and clear skies will cause temps to hit the low 20's this week in the valleys and only the mid 30's or low 40's up high. Daytime temps will be in the 50's for everyone. May be warmer up high as they won't need as long to warm with higher overnight temps. BA
Sunday, January 11, 2009
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8 comments:
Your the only guy in all of Tahoe thats giving me hope right now man, for the love of god keep it up
I plan to keep a watchful eye on your post. Our annual week at Northstar is 2/7-2/14!! Hope conditions improve!
I think you will be fine by the middle of February. If we get another pattern like we had the end of December you will have plenty of snow.
going to be at northstar 1/24-1/27 please pray for me
You may have perfect timing. No promises, but bring your powder skis.
thank you so much its unfair after last years january
cool blog - i have been looking for this type of info - not weather set in stone, but what looks to come longer term than the standard five to ten day forecast. in your bio, can you let us know how you put all this info together? it really is interesting -
thanks so much.
All of this information is available on the internet through computer models and profesional weather discussions, as well as refereces to weather patterns and how they work. It just takes a lot of years studying and learning how everything works, & breaking it down to simple terms and how it directly affects our weather here.
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