Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Keep it UP!!!

The praying & snow dances that is. Some amazing developments over the past 24hrs. We need to try and not get too excited just because we are snow starved, and just look at the positives that it is going to snow over the next seven days. Don't want to overhype the details in each model run the next 4 days. That can get exhausting.

Let's look at the facts. The computer models over the past 24 hrs. have been trending wetter and wetter(that is snowier for us in the mtns), and there has been a greater and greater concensus between the different models. That builds confidence in the forecast, especially less than 5 days away.

Ok, Ok, so here is the latest as of this morning.....There has been a slight increase in precip amounts tonight and Thursday morning with models now showing .5-.75 inches of liquid which would be about 6-9 inches of snow above 8000ft. Snow levels will start at 8000ft. then fall tomorrow to 7500 in the morning and 7000 by the afternoon when there is a break in precip.

New on the models is a closed low that dives in right behind the departing storm on Friday with a decent jet associated with it. Snow levels will be down to 6500 ft. with models showing the same amount of liquid as the Thursday storm. So another 6-9 inchest above 6500ft.

Most models are in agreement now with the cold front coming far West off the coast on Saturday and forming a cut-off low off the CA coast on Sunday. The cold front alone will drop snow levels to valley floors and models have over an inch of liquid which would be a foot of snow just on Sunday.

All models have the low stalling off the coast for a few days. Only differences are the position of the low & how long it sits. The closer to the coast the longer it sits, the more precip we get. Latest GFS model this morning has the low sitting fairly close to the coast and then heading East next Thursday. It has and additional 1.5-3 inches of liquid over the 4 day period which would be another 15-30 inches of snow.

These snow amounts are just based on a 10:1 ratio at 32 degrees. Amounts would be higher up high and lower down low and would change based on actual snow level and temps. The details obviously will have to be ironed out. But I like the agreement on all the models for 3 storms now thru Sunday with a couple feet of snow possible up on the mountain. Stay tuned, the probability increases each day. BA

13 comments:

Anonymous said...

Ok. Love your blog. I will be travelling ou there next tues thru sunday and I am paranoid that ist' going to suck. Tell me it will be cold enough for snow at the resorts!

BA said...

Most resorts start at 6,500ft. or higher and go up from there. Starting Friday snow levels should be below this mark. All those snow amounts I've just talked about are 6,500 and up. We have a great base to build on so you should have great conditions. You may have to drive home in the snow though next Sunday.

Anonymous said...

That's all I needed to hear my friend. Actually, I just need to make it to Reno to hop on the plane to get me back to the east coast. That is why I am so afraid of the trip being at the worst possible time of the year. At the end of a drought! Two days ago I was picturing myself getting on a plane next sunday with a sun-tan and brusises from the hard-pack and the big pattern changing storm was approaching the cali-coastline, a week to late for me!

Millicent Meng said...

Hooray!!!

BA said...

Where on the east coast?

Anonymous said...

NJ. Land of flatness!

BA said...

You don't have to tell me, I grew up in Ocean City, NJ.

Anonymous said...

Looking at the models I am still worried that it may be too warm and the bulk of the precip is going to be rain at most of the tahoe resorts.

BA said...

Seriously? we are dealing with 4 pieces of energy over the next 4 days. Each one progressively colder. Front tonight will drop levels to 7000ft. Friday-Saturday they should be around 6500. that only accounts for a fraction of the storms, the first foot. Which resort doesn't have the majority above 6,500? Artic front on Sunday with the biggest snowfall drops snow levels all the way down to around 2500 ft. What model are you looking at? Are you looking at 700mb temps?

Anonymous said...

Maybe what I mean is the temp forecasted by the national weather services don't appear to be very cold for say truckee or norden whic is about 6000 right? Aere they just being overly cautious before they jump on this? You obviously have a better handle on the models than I do. BTW I frequent Atlantic City and live in Swedesboro, NJ

Travis said...

So if I'm driving in Friday and leaving Monday, effectively boarding Saturday and Sunday, should I have decent conditions? Been following your blog for a while but I'm confused as to what this storm will bring for that timeframe...

BA said...

To Anonymous:

Yes Truckee is in the valley around 5900 ft. Snow levels aren't set in stone till we get closer, but the majority of the resorsts are above 7000 which should see quite a bit of snow, even if it starts as rain in the beginning. The temps if you click are much colder at 7000 and up. Plus it can snow above freezing if the warm layer is shallow enough near the ground.

Travis:

Keep watching the snow levels. Storms are certain Fri-Mon. Should be snow on most of the mountain but you may have to walk thru rain till you get on the lifts. Sunday snow level drops so decent snow for everyone. Stay tuned. The details aren't set in stone this far away. Still waiting to see how close to the coast the storm sets up.

Anonymous said...

nice blog! Definitely bookmarking it.