Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Tuesday A.M. Update.....

Weakening storm is currently approaching the Northern CA coast. One last day today of mild temps and sun. Ahead of the storm it is tapping a nice area of moisture off of the baja. This will send moisture northward, getting to our area sometime tomorrow afternoon. The southerly flow will also raise snow levels to around 8000ft. The main storm and front will quickly move thru by Thursday morning lowering snow levels to around 7000 ft. This morning models have increased the total precip making it up this far north to around .25-.5 inches north of the lake, and .5-.75 inches south of the lake. Where it stays all snow above 8000 ft. that would be 3-6 inches north lake and 6-9 south around our friends at Sierra at Tahoe. Below that would be less and only rain below 7000 ft.

Second Cut-off low now looks to wander off the coast and then head south out in the ocean. I was really hoping this one would come onshore. Still has a chance to, and if it comes close enough it could at least direct some moisture flow off the ocean towards us over the weekend. Meanwhile an arctic front is headed down the Rockies and it could come as far West as the coast. The farther West it comes the colder the air we get and more snow. Right now it looks to bring more cold air than snow with just a few inches at best. If it can come further West and the storm off the coast can come close enough, we could be in business. We will have to wait and see.

Ridge sets up just off the coast next week shunting storms into the Pac NW. It looks to get flattened and allow storms for next weekend, then reform at 140w. We really need it to move back to 150-160w. It should happen do to tropical forcing, just waiting for the unreliable models to catch on. BA


Daniel said...

I am a big fan of your write up. Keep up the excellent work.

Do you see any big storm coming? Will this be a short season after all?

BA said...

Hard to trust any big storms I see because the model accuracy has been low. I look for consistency from run to run and there is none. There definitely are storms out there, we just need the ridge in the ocean to set up in the right spot to direct them to us. Prime location would be 150-160w. Right now all I see on the models is 140w. But by February that should change. We can still get snow though. Keep a close eye on this Sunday. All we need is cold air over water.

Daniel said...

Do you really think global warming is causing such a snow level?

Some one had told me the reason why we don't get as much snow as before, and mid US is. Because the earth changed orbits.