It only gets better from here........

The big high pressure causing our ridge is on the move. It is slowly beginning to move East towards the Rockies. This will enhance our wind flow out of the East. Normally that would cool us down quite a bit but with the warm air that has formed in the ridge over the past week it will only cool us down a few degrees. Starting tomorrow thru Tuesday, temps will be in the upper 40's to around 50 on the mountain and low 50's in the valley. Overnight lows will be in the 30's on the mtn. and 20's in the valley. This will start to cool a few degrees more by Tuesday.

Models in a little bit of a disagreement with the pattern change for next week, but they are starting to come together. Both models bring in colder air starting next wednesday the 20th and some sort of storm. Difference is the GFS model shows the high pressure out at 140w with a storm coming down the coast & lots of cold air. The Euro model shows the ridge out at 140w but up towards the gulf of Alaska which would force some precip to go under the ridge into Central CA. This would be a slightly less cold solution with snow levels above 6000 ft., but more moisture. The latest GFS run this morning shows a combination of the two with some moisture coming under the ridge on Wed. & then a storm down the coast with cold air right on its heels for Friday. A storm down the coast can be complicate precip wise because depending on how much over water trajectory it has, determines whether it will bring snow showers or a big dump. The storm that started off the big snows of Dec. on the 15th was a cold storm that slid down the coast but we got lucky & it picked up good moisture off the ocean & it dumped 2-3 feet of fluffy powder. Either way there is a change coming the middle of next week with colder air and some sort of precip. Keep up the snow dances.

Anything further out than a week on the models during a big pattern change like this is to be looked at with caution, but I love putting my neck on the line. Feel a little more confident with what models show since it is in line with Ed Berry's predictions of the global pattern. Currently it looks likes the ridge in the Gulf of Alaska briefly shifts into the Pac NW following next weeks storm, shutting off precip and moderating temps for 3-4 days. But it keeps moving East as we are in a progressive flow now. Ridge then forms out at 160w over Hawaii and allows a big storm to finally hit us around the 29th-30th, with another storm behind that. At the same time tropical activity in the southwest Pacific is really heating up and getting ready to pump the jet stream. I have a good feeling about February.........BA