Thursday, January 22, 2009

One Down Two to Go!

People are sitting at home all worried about the rain out their window. It's snowing on the mountains! Most resorts including Northstar have lifts that start at mid-mtn and higher. Northstar even has one called Rendevous that services the top bowl and starts at like 8000 ft. I have had some great powder days where it's raining in the parking lot but dumping up on the mountain. Just thought I'd throw that out there since everyone seems so intent on snow levels.

Storm #1 is just about wrapped up. Just some left over snow showers. Lesson learned from today is that snow levels are trending about 1000 ft. lower than models predicted and during heavier bursts Cold air is drawn to the surface and it snows at lake level. Today it snowed off and on above 6300 ft. and was all snow above 7000 ft. on the mountain. Looks like accumulations started at about an inch or two at 7000 ft. then more as you went up. All resorts reporting 6-12 inches on top as of this afternoon.

Storm #2 is just off the coast headed our way. This storm will tap some good moisture and should bring some decent snowfall tomorrow afternoon thru Saturday. There is not the subtropical tap from the baja this time so snow levels shouldn't be as high. It will not have a lot of cold air though either. Snow levels should be around 7000 ft. then falling on Saturday to lake level. The heavier precip should be done by then so only a light accumulation at lake level but another 6-12 inches on top of the mtns. I think the bigger accumulations can come lower with this storm. Will be another wait and watch situation.

Sunday storm showing up slower which is good. Most models have it coming down off the coast which is also good for picking up moisture. One model shows it a little drier coming down over the Sierra. Snow levels will start at lake level with this storm. Up to a foot is the call for everyone with more up high as the snow piles up faster with this storm with higher water to snow ratios as temps will only be in the 20's on top of the mountains. With the slower progression and the storm stalling off the coast, snow showers could last until wednesday after the heavy precip is over on Monday.

I don't know if anyone cares right now about the extended. A ridge will build in off the Pac NW coast. This will give us a northerly wind and keep us cold the remainder of next week. It will also bump storms up into Canada. This ridge looks to flatten then reform out at 150w the first week of Feb. allowing bigger colder storms to return to Tahoe. BA

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

Excellent. Great work covering the storm today. Lets hope for the forecasters to be 1000 feet off again tomorrow.

Anonymous said...

The GFS is the only model that has the low stalling off the coast right. Hope it's not an out-lier and the others catch on b/c Tahoe could really use a nice shot light powder on top of th recent wet snow of today and tomorrow. Not to picky, but that would be ideal. You agree?

Anonymous said...

how high is the northstar village?

BA said...

Anononymous #1:

Yes the GFS is the only one by GFS other ensembles members have slowed it down. The European is the only one not going off the coast. Stalling is a bonus. I'll go for just a nice shot of a foot or two, I'm not picky, but stalling would be nice.

Anonymous #2:

The village is just above 6300 feet.

Anonymous said...

Not a fan of the new models coming out, much less precip!

Anonymous said...

12z nam looking better. hr 60 has the low pressure right off the coast compared to hr 66 of 6z. Should throw some added moisture back into nor-cal. Game on maybe!

Anonymous said...

I'M ROOTING FOR THE 12Z GFS!!!

BA said...

Yes, I'm watching the 12z right now, then posting.