Model Mayhem....

I have waited all weekend to post because I have been watching the models and trying to come up with some sort of reasonable forecast for this week. Overall not much change from the Friday night post. Two more days of mild temps and sun as the MASSIVE ridge is shifting East. The trough headed towards us for Wednesday is still on track as well. The problem in the details is the back side of the ridge as it leaves, with it's dry air that is going to try and rip apart the first couple troughs that run into the back of it. This will be a progressive process to get wetter & wetter storms to affect us. The good news is that the storm door is finally back open.

Trough for wednesday looks to split with a cut-off low diving into SoCAl. There is some moisture off of the baja that it can tap and send moisture northward. Snow levels will be fairly high, above 7000ft. Most places that see accumulation should be south of Tahoe. I think we only get clouds with some flakes up on the mountain. The air will get much colder starting wednesday with highs only in the 30's on the mountain, 40's in town. Inversions will be erased as well.

Another trough making its way towards us gets split and a cut-off low comes under a ridge forming in the gulf of Alaska. This low looks to possibly team up with a trough coming down the West coast on Saturday, as a ridge forms off the coast around 130-140w which surges north cuttting the energy off from the jet. The storm could sit over us for a couple of days and deliver some healthy snowfall. Some models don't like this solution though and don't have a trough joining the storm and high pressure moving it out quickly. This disagreement is one of the reasons I have been waiting to post. We will just have to wait and see.

The week of the 25th the ridge offshore looks to get flattened by a large trough that is much wetter and comes in by the end of the week into the weekend. I have liked the looks of this storm for a while now.

Going into the first week of Feb. the ridge finally builds out around 160-170w. Let's hope this can lock in. This should allow storms to come in very wet that week. I still have a good feeling about February. Ed Berry mentioned in his Saturday discussion that the West Coast trough pattern should fully mature by week three bringing similar affects as the end of December. That would mean over 100 inches of snow the first two weeks of Feb. I hope he's right! BA