Saturday, January 24, 2009

It's Dumping!!!

Cold front is currently pushing thru the area and is producing a burst of heavy snow. Already a couple of inches at lake level. Cold front will continue to push South and East. Main storm is spinning just north of Tahoe. This is where a consistent band of heavy snow has setup. Track of this center is critical because it is headed East-Southeast. Models right now have it staying just North and we get continued snow showers overnight after the cold front and heavy band push thru. If it tracks a little closer we will get heavier snow. Basically the further North you are the more snow you will get.

Should be a slight lull in activity Sunday morning and then another storm sliding down the coast arrives during the day and enhances snowfall activity into Sunday night. After the low passes, things should wind down by Monday morning. Models are not handling this second low very well because it's hard to say how much moisture it will have because the track is critical. We may just have to wait and see what we have Monday morning with this storm. Total liquid overnight on latest models is .5 inches, but just to our north it has 1-1.25 inches. At .5 with 20:1 snow ratios on top of the mtn. that is 10 inches by tomorrow and 5 inches at lake level at 10:1 ratios. Could be more if the heavy band comes a little further south. Should be several more inches with the second wave Sunday into Sunday night. Still thinking over a foot on top. Hopefully will be able to have a better idea in the morning.

Ridge develops just offshore of NorCal around 130w which pushes storms up into the Pac NW thru next weekend. Cold air Tuesday moderates with highs in the 40's by next weekend, but cold nights. By next weekend the ridge starts to get flattened by storm activity and should reform at around 150w. This should allow a chance at a couple of cold storms the first week of Feb.

According to Ed Berry's latest discussion, MJO is finally back on the scene! Currently over Africa it should be in the Western Pacific by the first week of Feb, with another on its heals for mid-Feb. This adds confidence to a ridge out around 150-160w and would add lots of juice to the jetstream. PNA is also forecasted to tank negative in February which should mean no more ridges for a while! I told you I had a good feeling about February. Hopefully we can catch back up to average snowfall on the season! BA

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