A Glance at the Potential Pattern for Winter 09-10

Here is the latest map put out by Accuweather.com. It is based on the research of Joe Bastardi who is a main go to long-range forecaster. The map shows us on the Northern edge of normal Mtn. snow. This would be the affect if the hypothesis is correct of El Nino fading out over the winter. Some models show it holding strong thru the winter, but there are some factors that may kill it going thru the winter which I'll discuss next week. The fading El Nino would still bring the storm track into CA, but would limit the severity of the storms. A normal year here is a good year. This is a very early glance by only one forecaster, so it is definitely not set in stone. We have a long way to go but the fun has already started. Stay tuned.....BA

A Sad Event For Long Range Forecasting....

Ed Berry from the NWS has decided to discontinue his global weather discussion blog, "Atmospheric Insights", due to time constraints with new research he is working on. This is sad news for many long range forcasters including this long range forecaster. Ed's research on global patterns & their affect on upcoming US weather were some of the best & most accurate. His analysis of global patterns was a big help in forming forecasts for our area a month or two out without using computer models. I hope to have learned enough from his research to continue to use some of his techniques in upcoming forecasts during the winter season. There are other scientists studying the global patterns & their affect on our weather, but Ed Berry is one of the best. I hope to see him back writing again in the future.

I have been looking into El Nino & it's impact on our upcoming winter. Right now there is not an official El Nino. ONI has to be above .5 degrees for three months to be classified by the NWS as El Nino, & the last three months were only .2 degrees. I hope to post within the next week an analysis of El Nino & how it can affect our upcoming winter. Stay tuned.......BA