Snow levels have dropped below 6500 ft. It is snowing in the village at 6300' with a couple inches of accumulation already. As another wave rotates in off the main low for Monday the snow levels will drop even further. Heavy snow will fall into Monday night. 2+ feet possible on the mtn. with 3+ ft. on the crest, and up to a foot in town.
Snow showers should continue into Tuesday as the main low drifts South down the coast. Some heavier waves will rotate thru the area, especially Tuesday night. Snow should continue into Wed. before tapering off in the afternoon. Snow levels will be around 5000 ft., which will up the snow ratios over Tahoe. This storm could dump an additional 2+ feet. with another 3+ on the crest. Snow totals by Wed. night look to be around 4-5 ft. on Northstar above 7000 ft. Amounts are a little trickier below depending on the how fast the snow levels drop initially on monday, but a couple feet are possible in town, & 6-8 ft. total along the Western Crest.
Biggest change in the forecast is for the end of the week. The models are back & forth on what will happen with the main low off the coast and a storm sliding down the coast from Canada. Still a chance at some cold snow accumulation Fri/Sat. from the storm coming down the coast, but confidence in details is not high right now.
A much needed break may be in store for a few days starting next weekend, before more storms take aim by the end of the following week. BA
Saturday, February 28, 2009
Friday, February 27, 2009
Friday Evening.............
One more nice day tomorrow as the two storms will merge with each other off the Pac NW coast & form one big storm and big trough of cold air. Main change tonight is the initial storm has slowed even more.
Subtropical moisture being pulled up ahead of the storm now looks to arrive sometime Sunday Afternoon. At first snow levels will be around 7000 ft., but as the colder trough moves closer on Sunday night the snow levels should begin to drop reaching lake level by Monday morning. Heavy snow will fall into Monday night. 2 feet possible on the mtn. with up to 3 ft. on the crest.
Snow showers should continue into Tuesday before another storm wrapping around the main low off the Pac NW coast taps some subtropical moisture and slams the Sierra with more snow Tuesday night into Wed. This storm will lower snow levels to around 5000 ft., which will up the snow ratios over Tahoe. This storm could dump an additional 1-2+ feet.
Snow should lighten up Wed. night before yet another storm arrives for Thursday/Friday as a final piece of energy comes down the coast. Models this morning were trending this storm more over water which would give the storm lots of moisture to work with. Tonights models are a little more over land with good snow but not as much as there would be with the over water path. Snow levels with this storm should be down near 3000 ft., so snow ratios will be very high. Snow totals from this storm could be significant.
Total liquid over the Sierra over the next week is quite impressive. Snow ratios, snow levels, & exact storm tracks will need to be fine tuned on a daily basis, but either way we are in for a long week of snow. This has the potential to be the snowiest week so far this winter if the storms live up to what the models are showing. They fell a little short of what was shown last storm cycle. It will be interesting to see how close the resorts are to their seasonal snowfall averages by next weekend, and how close we are to having the snowpack be at average.
A much needed break may be in store for a few days starting next weekend, before more storms take aim. BA
Subtropical moisture being pulled up ahead of the storm now looks to arrive sometime Sunday Afternoon. At first snow levels will be around 7000 ft., but as the colder trough moves closer on Sunday night the snow levels should begin to drop reaching lake level by Monday morning. Heavy snow will fall into Monday night. 2 feet possible on the mtn. with up to 3 ft. on the crest.
Snow showers should continue into Tuesday before another storm wrapping around the main low off the Pac NW coast taps some subtropical moisture and slams the Sierra with more snow Tuesday night into Wed. This storm will lower snow levels to around 5000 ft., which will up the snow ratios over Tahoe. This storm could dump an additional 1-2+ feet.
Snow should lighten up Wed. night before yet another storm arrives for Thursday/Friday as a final piece of energy comes down the coast. Models this morning were trending this storm more over water which would give the storm lots of moisture to work with. Tonights models are a little more over land with good snow but not as much as there would be with the over water path. Snow levels with this storm should be down near 3000 ft., so snow ratios will be very high. Snow totals from this storm could be significant.
Total liquid over the Sierra over the next week is quite impressive. Snow ratios, snow levels, & exact storm tracks will need to be fine tuned on a daily basis, but either way we are in for a long week of snow. This has the potential to be the snowiest week so far this winter if the storms live up to what the models are showing. They fell a little short of what was shown last storm cycle. It will be interesting to see how close the resorts are to their seasonal snowfall averages by next weekend, and how close we are to having the snowpack be at average.
A much needed break may be in store for a few days starting next weekend, before more storms take aim. BA
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Calm Before the Storm.......
Northstar picked up 3" overnight, which puts them exactly 6 feet off of their seasonal average. We have a chance at hitting that in the next week! Areas along the crest about 5-9 inches. Snow showers could persist off and on thru the day but no more than a few more inches should accumulate.
Friday & Saturday look to be precip free as a low sitting off the coast strengthens & gathers moisture. On Saturday the low heads NE towards Washington & merges with a storm coming down from Alaska, thus merging the subtropical & the polar jet streams & creating a cold trough off the coast. This is a good set-up for us.
Subtropical moisture ahead of the trough looks to arrive sometime Sat. night into Sunday morning. At first snow levels will be around 7000 ft., but as the colder trough moves closer on Sunday the snow levels should drop to lake level. The heaviest precip looks to fall Sunday night as the jet stream sets up right over Tahoe. Above 7000 ft. 2-3 feet look possible by Monday with up to a foot at lake level & in town.
Snow showers should continue Monday into Tuesday before another storm wrapping around the main low off the Pac NW coast taps some subtropical moisture and slams the Sierra with more snow Tuesday night. Yet another storm still looks possible for Thursday as a final piece of energy comes down the coast. Tues - Fri. we could easily double what falls Sunday/Monday.
First weekend of March could be amazing after all the snow falls next week. We may get a break for a few days as the trough over the East I have been alluding to slows the progression of storms. That wouldn't last long as the latest long-range models continue to keep the ridge planted in the Central Pacific. Hopefully March is our biggest month this season. BA
Friday & Saturday look to be precip free as a low sitting off the coast strengthens & gathers moisture. On Saturday the low heads NE towards Washington & merges with a storm coming down from Alaska, thus merging the subtropical & the polar jet streams & creating a cold trough off the coast. This is a good set-up for us.
Subtropical moisture ahead of the trough looks to arrive sometime Sat. night into Sunday morning. At first snow levels will be around 7000 ft., but as the colder trough moves closer on Sunday the snow levels should drop to lake level. The heaviest precip looks to fall Sunday night as the jet stream sets up right over Tahoe. Above 7000 ft. 2-3 feet look possible by Monday with up to a foot at lake level & in town.
Snow showers should continue Monday into Tuesday before another storm wrapping around the main low off the Pac NW coast taps some subtropical moisture and slams the Sierra with more snow Tuesday night. Yet another storm still looks possible for Thursday as a final piece of energy comes down the coast. Tues - Fri. we could easily double what falls Sunday/Monday.
First weekend of March could be amazing after all the snow falls next week. We may get a break for a few days as the trough over the East I have been alluding to slows the progression of storms. That wouldn't last long as the latest long-range models continue to keep the ridge planted in the Central Pacific. Hopefully March is our biggest month this season. BA
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Wednesday Evening....
Main low with cold front is moving down the coast & should start to move inland over Washington. Snow showers are already starting with the moist flow off the ocean, & should be heaviest late tonight into Thursday morning as the cold front comes thru. Snowing currently at 6000 ft. so snow levels should be below lake level thru the event. Models back & forth on amounts of 3-6 or 6-12 inches. Let's just split it and go with 4-8 inches on the mountain by Thursday afternoon, up to a foot on the crest. There will be some shadowing since the front is weak.
No changes on the set-up for the weekend with a low setting up out in the Pacific tapping subtropical moisture while we are quiet Fri. & Sat. Storm heads NE towards Washington and bring moisture band into the Sierra by Sat. night. With the subtropical moisture snow levels should start around 7000 ft. but then fall as the colder air filters in under the main low off the coast on Sunday. GFS going more in line with the Euro in keeping the low over the ocean with the subsequent storms diving underneath it and tapping some more subtropical moisture, thus keeping the snow wetter, but snow levels should be at or below lake level by Sunday morning. This storm should drop at least a couple feet on the Mountains.
Snow showers last into Tuesday before another storm taps some subtropical moisture and slams the Sierra with more snow measured in feet. Yet another storm still looks possible for Thursday with more storminess possible for the following weekend. Next week looks to quite stormy and the mountain could get quite a bit of snow with a fair share in town. Will have to iron out the details in the next few days but the pattern is perfect for lots of snow.
Latest long-range models continue to keep the ridge planted in the Central Pacific. March will come in like a lion, and hopefully go out like one too. BA
No changes on the set-up for the weekend with a low setting up out in the Pacific tapping subtropical moisture while we are quiet Fri. & Sat. Storm heads NE towards Washington and bring moisture band into the Sierra by Sat. night. With the subtropical moisture snow levels should start around 7000 ft. but then fall as the colder air filters in under the main low off the coast on Sunday. GFS going more in line with the Euro in keeping the low over the ocean with the subsequent storms diving underneath it and tapping some more subtropical moisture, thus keeping the snow wetter, but snow levels should be at or below lake level by Sunday morning. This storm should drop at least a couple feet on the Mountains.
Snow showers last into Tuesday before another storm taps some subtropical moisture and slams the Sierra with more snow measured in feet. Yet another storm still looks possible for Thursday with more storminess possible for the following weekend. Next week looks to quite stormy and the mountain could get quite a bit of snow with a fair share in town. Will have to iron out the details in the next few days but the pattern is perfect for lots of snow.
Latest long-range models continue to keep the ridge planted in the Central Pacific. March will come in like a lion, and hopefully go out like one too. BA
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Tuesday Evening......
Haven't gotten much riding in the past 10 days after a little run-in with a tree on that amazing powder morning on Valentine's Day. But from what I've heard today from a few people is that the resorts are pretty buried up high & the conditions are pretty good. That would make sense since in the past 3 weeks over 9.5 feet has fallen on top of Northstar, & 10 - 12+ feet on areas along the crest. Today was a bluebird day with some nice temps.
Storm for tomorrow night continues the trend of taking more of an over land path & heading inland over Oregon, which means a drier scenario for us. Looks like most of the snow will fall during the day Thursday with snow levels hovering around lake level since the cold air with the storm won't be heading as far South. Models have thus cut-back on snow totals showing closer to 3-6 inches, possibly more up along the crest. Hopefully this is one of the storms where we get more than anticipated.
On Friday a low sets up out in the Pacific, similar to the same position as this past weekends storm, then takes a similar path NE towards Washington over this weekend. Latest models showing almost the same set-up as last weekend with the subtropical moisture stream heading up just off the coast on Saturday. Looks like a break in precip. Fri. & Sat.
Good news is that a colder storm will be coming down from Alaska and possibly meeting up with the moisture just as it is coming onshore Sunday. Snow levels would start out around 6500 ft. & then fall thru the day Sunday as the cold air associated with the colder storm filters in. Snow may lighten up Monday & then another cold storm could bring heavier snow Tuesday, with snow lasting into Wed. Another cold storm could be on it's heels for Thursday but doesn't look as strong. Currently models are showing several inches of liquid possible Sun.- Wed., and with the lower snow levels that could me several feet of snow. This 4 day period will be the focus the next few days, as it could be something to get excited about.
Long Range models continue to hint at the ridge continuing to progress East across the Pacific and possibly ending up near the West Coast around the second week of March. This would be a chance at a little break in the storm activity before the ridge re-emerges back out in the Central Pacific, but that is pretty far off. BA
Storm for tomorrow night continues the trend of taking more of an over land path & heading inland over Oregon, which means a drier scenario for us. Looks like most of the snow will fall during the day Thursday with snow levels hovering around lake level since the cold air with the storm won't be heading as far South. Models have thus cut-back on snow totals showing closer to 3-6 inches, possibly more up along the crest. Hopefully this is one of the storms where we get more than anticipated.
On Friday a low sets up out in the Pacific, similar to the same position as this past weekends storm, then takes a similar path NE towards Washington over this weekend. Latest models showing almost the same set-up as last weekend with the subtropical moisture stream heading up just off the coast on Saturday. Looks like a break in precip. Fri. & Sat.
Good news is that a colder storm will be coming down from Alaska and possibly meeting up with the moisture just as it is coming onshore Sunday. Snow levels would start out around 6500 ft. & then fall thru the day Sunday as the cold air associated with the colder storm filters in. Snow may lighten up Monday & then another cold storm could bring heavier snow Tuesday, with snow lasting into Wed. Another cold storm could be on it's heels for Thursday but doesn't look as strong. Currently models are showing several inches of liquid possible Sun.- Wed., and with the lower snow levels that could me several feet of snow. This 4 day period will be the focus the next few days, as it could be something to get excited about.
Long Range models continue to hint at the ridge continuing to progress East across the Pacific and possibly ending up near the West Coast around the second week of March. This would be a chance at a little break in the storm activity before the ridge re-emerges back out in the Central Pacific, but that is pretty far off. BA
Monday, February 23, 2009
Monday P.M. Post....
On the radar it looks like one last narrow band is making it's way towards the Sierra for this evening. It has been snowing most of the day on the mtn. & raining in town with the snow levels between 6500-7000 ft. Showers should begin to taper off overnight as the moist flow moves away.
Should have a break Tuesday between systems with some sun.
Models are in better agreement for Wed./Thurs. system. The storm will be sliding down the coast & currently looks to stay near land and then moves in over Oregon. This is not the track that we are looking for. We need the storm to come down the coast further and go over the ocean a little more to pick up more moisture. Right now it looks like a colder storm with snow, but not as moist. The bulk of the snow looks to fall up near Lassen & Shasta. We would get a few inches on the mtn. Still have 3 days for the track to hopefully change.
Friday looks to be another break with some sun, and then ridge in the Central Pacific looks to back all the way up to 170-180w by the weekend. This will allow a storm to dive South way West of us out in the ocean. The storm looks to then tap into some more subtropical moisture and send it our way by Sat./Sun. This would give us a scenario similar to this past weekend with some more wet snow on the mountain.
Ridge out in the Pacific then looks to start progressing East the first week of March. This would cause storms to dive down from Alaska closer to the West coast instead of further West. This would eleminate the warmer subtropical tap making the storms colder with lower snow levels. We would like to see the ridge sit around 150w. As long as the ridge remains out over the Central Pacific & doesn't come too close to the West Coast we should remain in an active weather pattern. BA
Should have a break Tuesday between systems with some sun.
Models are in better agreement for Wed./Thurs. system. The storm will be sliding down the coast & currently looks to stay near land and then moves in over Oregon. This is not the track that we are looking for. We need the storm to come down the coast further and go over the ocean a little more to pick up more moisture. Right now it looks like a colder storm with snow, but not as moist. The bulk of the snow looks to fall up near Lassen & Shasta. We would get a few inches on the mtn. Still have 3 days for the track to hopefully change.
Friday looks to be another break with some sun, and then ridge in the Central Pacific looks to back all the way up to 170-180w by the weekend. This will allow a storm to dive South way West of us out in the ocean. The storm looks to then tap into some more subtropical moisture and send it our way by Sat./Sun. This would give us a scenario similar to this past weekend with some more wet snow on the mountain.
Ridge out in the Pacific then looks to start progressing East the first week of March. This would cause storms to dive down from Alaska closer to the West coast instead of further West. This would eleminate the warmer subtropical tap making the storms colder with lower snow levels. We would like to see the ridge sit around 150w. As long as the ridge remains out over the Central Pacific & doesn't come too close to the West Coast we should remain in an active weather pattern. BA
Saturday, February 21, 2009
Sunday Evening Update.....
Precip will continue tonight. Snow levels have hovered around 7000 ft. today. As another disturbance rotates in tomorrow morning snow levels could come down a little. I was up on the mtn. this afternoon and most of the mtn. was getting snow and it was about 6 inches deep already up top. Still looking for 2+ ft. to fall on top by Tuesday morning. Amounts will drop off as you come down the mtn.
The main low is still not moving much out in the Pacific off of Washington. One of the waves rotating around the low should come onshore tomorrow while the main low starts to move towards Washington. This should keep the precip going but should also lower snow level to between 6500-7000 ft. The main low looks to come onshore in the PacNW Tuesday, but too far North to have much affect on us. Snow showers should continue thru Wed. with snow levels around lake level.
A storm with a subtropical tap looks to form for next weekend with another round of heavy snow for Tahoe with snow level at or just above lake level as it looks right now.
The pattern should stay unsettled into the extended. The high is forecast to stay over the Central Pacific & blocking up North should keep the jetstream pushed South towards CA. This should keep storms diving down towards the West Coast every few days. Hopefully we can get some model consistency & get excited about the details of some particular storms. BA
The main low is still not moving much out in the Pacific off of Washington. One of the waves rotating around the low should come onshore tomorrow while the main low starts to move towards Washington. This should keep the precip going but should also lower snow level to between 6500-7000 ft. The main low looks to come onshore in the PacNW Tuesday, but too far North to have much affect on us. Snow showers should continue thru Wed. with snow levels around lake level.
A storm with a subtropical tap looks to form for next weekend with another round of heavy snow for Tahoe with snow level at or just above lake level as it looks right now.
The pattern should stay unsettled into the extended. The high is forecast to stay over the Central Pacific & blocking up North should keep the jetstream pushed South towards CA. This should keep storms diving down towards the West Coast every few days. Hopefully we can get some model consistency & get excited about the details of some particular storms. BA
Friday, February 20, 2009
How Bout Them Pineapples........
Quick update on the monster storm developing off the coast. The progress of the storm has slowed the past few days and that has caused this thing to sit & draw in more & more moisture from the tropics. As it gets closer tomorrow it will start drawing moisture from back towards Hawaii, similar to a "Pineapple Express". Precip should start to fall during the day Sunday and it will fall hard. This was a cold storm but because it now has stalled and sucked in subtropical moisture, the snow levels will start out a little high. The way it looks right now is the precip moves in by Sunday afternoon with snow levels starting near 8000 ft. Then lowering to 7000 - 7500 Sunday night, & then to 6500 by Monday. That is at the bottom of most resorts. Then lower below lake level by Monday night as the colder storm moves in from Alaska & joins up with the storm off the coast. The heaviest precip should fall Sunday & Monday, but plenty left for Tuesday & Wed. as the main low comes onshore. We should get quite a bit of rain, especially in town, but hopefully it will end as a decent amount of snow for everyone. Up on the mountains where it is all snow or mostly snow, there could be several feet.
Thursday, February 19, 2009
little Break.............BIG Storm
Beautiful sunny weather with temps in the 40's thru Sat. Perfect weather for the Dew Tour. Don't forget your sunscreen.
Big trough is being dug-out over the East which is holding the ridge in place over the Rockies and putting a jam in the progression of storms for a few days. BIG storm off the coast will sit and draw moisture from the tropics for the next few days. The longer it sits there the more moisture and energy that will be pumped into it. As soon as the trough over the East kicks out the progression of storms can once again begin. This should happen sometime on Sunday with the precip arriving in Tahoe sometime later on Sunday. This will be huge amount of moisture that will fall within a 48 hour period. With the flow coming from the South out of the Subtropics, the snow levels will start around 7000ft. with this system and then start to fall. The mtn. could be in for several feet of Sierra Cement.
Everyone is worried about some rain in town or at the bottom of the mtn. Don't worry the snow level will crash by Monday night and lots of cold storms look to be in our future at least thru the first week of March. A little more base building snow won't hurt, especially in April. No change in the extended forecast with models still showing the ridge holding over Hawaii with cold storms hitting the West Coast into the extended.
Since there will be a jam in the weather pattern for a few days I will not be posting againg till possibly Sat. night. I will be up enjoying the Dew Tour and the nice weather before it's time to start shoveling again. BA
Big trough is being dug-out over the East which is holding the ridge in place over the Rockies and putting a jam in the progression of storms for a few days. BIG storm off the coast will sit and draw moisture from the tropics for the next few days. The longer it sits there the more moisture and energy that will be pumped into it. As soon as the trough over the East kicks out the progression of storms can once again begin. This should happen sometime on Sunday with the precip arriving in Tahoe sometime later on Sunday. This will be huge amount of moisture that will fall within a 48 hour period. With the flow coming from the South out of the Subtropics, the snow levels will start around 7000ft. with this system and then start to fall. The mtn. could be in for several feet of Sierra Cement.
Everyone is worried about some rain in town or at the bottom of the mtn. Don't worry the snow level will crash by Monday night and lots of cold storms look to be in our future at least thru the first week of March. A little more base building snow won't hurt, especially in April. No change in the extended forecast with models still showing the ridge holding over Hawaii with cold storms hitting the West Coast into the extended.
Since there will be a jam in the weather pattern for a few days I will not be posting againg till possibly Sat. night. I will be up enjoying the Dew Tour and the nice weather before it's time to start shoveling again. BA
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Here Comes the Sun.....
The 3-day storm has finally ended this morning. Northstar picked up a total of 3 ft. 3 inches over the past 3 days. The storm was more showery with waves of moisture rotating around the main low offshore, instead of a steady jetstream that would have helped to push more moisture over the crest. So snowfall totals varied greatly depending on where the heavier showers set-up & dropped off dramatically as you went East of the Crest. Areas along the crest picked up anywhere from 34 - 56 inches (about 3 - 4.5 feet), & areas east of the lake picked up around 15" or less.
Two week storm cycle finally comes to an end as well. It snowed in some capacity for 14 days straight. Two week totals put a nice dent in the annual snowfall totals. I added up the 24 hour snow totals reported each morning for the past two weeks around Tahoe. Northstar ended up with 96" which is exactly 8 Feet! over the past two weeks on top. Sierra at Tahoe beat us out by 1.5 inches at 97.5! Other areas along the Western Crest reporting 101 - 145 inches (8.5 - 12 Feet). 5 - 6 feet on the Eastern Crest.
We are now ahead of the infamous 06/07 season in which we didn't have this much snow until March 27th and not much more after that. We are also ahead of 05/06 where we didn't have this much snow until March 2nd, but then it dumped 350" in March & April and the crest ended up over 600" on the season! Let's hope we can do that again! We are just about on average now for where we should be for this point in the season at Northstar. If you divide our average of 350" by the 4 snowiest months, Dec. - Apr., we should be at 262.5" by March 1st and we are currently at 259", with 10 days to go. The crest is off by about 3-4 ft.
So what will the next 10 days & beyond bring? Another big storm is right offshore ready to dump on us, but it will stall today just off the coast as there is a quick jam in the progression of storms caused by a big trough in the East that will last a few days. This storm will pump a ridge over us Wed.-Sat. and bring sunshine and temps in the 40's, perfect weather for the Dew Tour finals at Northstar this weekend! Latest models show it so close to the coast that it rains right along the beach.
The storm sitting off the coast will be pumping up some decent moisture from the tropics. It looks like this moisture will finally move in sometime on Sunday now. Meanwhile a storm will be coming down out of Alaska & help to push the storm inland, as well as possibly tap into the moisture from the storm. Models disagreeing on how far south the storm from Alaska comes, but most show it at least far enough to keep snow going until Tuesday. Snow levels could start a little higher with the subtropical moisture but then fall as the cold front approaches from Alaska.
Another storm is ready to come in for the second half of the week & into the weekend to finish February on a snowy note.
The ridge looks to stay stationary just North of Hawaii thru the first week of March. This will leave the storm door wide open with storms continuing to drop down from Alaska. These will be cold storms since they are dropping down from the North. According to Ed Berry's latest discussion, he believes the ridge will possibly hold over Hawaii well into spring. Keep your fingers crossed. BA
Two week storm cycle finally comes to an end as well. It snowed in some capacity for 14 days straight. Two week totals put a nice dent in the annual snowfall totals. I added up the 24 hour snow totals reported each morning for the past two weeks around Tahoe. Northstar ended up with 96" which is exactly 8 Feet! over the past two weeks on top. Sierra at Tahoe beat us out by 1.5 inches at 97.5! Other areas along the Western Crest reporting 101 - 145 inches (8.5 - 12 Feet). 5 - 6 feet on the Eastern Crest.
We are now ahead of the infamous 06/07 season in which we didn't have this much snow until March 27th and not much more after that. We are also ahead of 05/06 where we didn't have this much snow until March 2nd, but then it dumped 350" in March & April and the crest ended up over 600" on the season! Let's hope we can do that again! We are just about on average now for where we should be for this point in the season at Northstar. If you divide our average of 350" by the 4 snowiest months, Dec. - Apr., we should be at 262.5" by March 1st and we are currently at 259", with 10 days to go. The crest is off by about 3-4 ft.
So what will the next 10 days & beyond bring? Another big storm is right offshore ready to dump on us, but it will stall today just off the coast as there is a quick jam in the progression of storms caused by a big trough in the East that will last a few days. This storm will pump a ridge over us Wed.-Sat. and bring sunshine and temps in the 40's, perfect weather for the Dew Tour finals at Northstar this weekend! Latest models show it so close to the coast that it rains right along the beach.
The storm sitting off the coast will be pumping up some decent moisture from the tropics. It looks like this moisture will finally move in sometime on Sunday now. Meanwhile a storm will be coming down out of Alaska & help to push the storm inland, as well as possibly tap into the moisture from the storm. Models disagreeing on how far south the storm from Alaska comes, but most show it at least far enough to keep snow going until Tuesday. Snow levels could start a little higher with the subtropical moisture but then fall as the cold front approaches from Alaska.
Another storm is ready to come in for the second half of the week & into the weekend to finish February on a snowy note.
The ridge looks to stay stationary just North of Hawaii thru the first week of March. This will leave the storm door wide open with storms continuing to drop down from Alaska. These will be cold storms since they are dropping down from the North. According to Ed Berry's latest discussion, he believes the ridge will possibly hold over Hawaii well into spring. Keep your fingers crossed. BA
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Tuesday Morning, Final Round......
Snow showers yesterday and overnight got caught up on the crest a little more than I was hoping. Northstar got 11 inches in the past 24 hrs. as of 5 a.m. Areas along the crest reporting 14-20 inches. That puts the storm total over 2.5 ft. at 31" so far, 3 ft.+ along the crest, & 18" in town. Over 7 feet now in the past 11 days on top of Northstar.
Main low is finally moving onshore this morning. Snowfall should pick up around mid-morning and be heaviest this afternoon. Snow showers should continue overnight. Latest models still have over a foot falling by tonight on the mtn. and over 6" in town. We are right on track for the 3-4 feet for a storm total.
A big storm is right offshore by tomorrow, but it will stall just off the coast as there is a quick jam in the progression of storms caused by a big trough in the East that will last a few days. This storm will pump a ridge over us Wed.-Sat. and bring sunshine and temps in the 40's, perfect weather for the Dew Tour finals at Northstar this weekend!
The storm sitting off the coast will be pumping up some decent moisture from the tropics. It looks like this moisture will finally move in sometime around Sat. night. Meanwhile a storm will be coming down out of Alaska & help to push the storm inland, as well as possibly tap into the moisture from the storm. This could be another prolonged snow event lasting into the middle of next week and dropping several more feet of snow. Snow levels could start a little higher with the subtropical moisture but then fall as the cold front approaches from Alaska.
The ridge looks to stay stationary just North of Hawaii thru the first week of March. This will leave the storm door wide open with storms continuing to drop down from Alaska. These will be cold storms since they are dropping down from the North. According to Ed Berry's latest discussion, he believes the ridge will possibly hold over Hawaii well into spring. If this is the case we may be able to get to and possibly surpass average for the seasonal snowfall. Keep your fingers crossed. BA
Main low is finally moving onshore this morning. Snowfall should pick up around mid-morning and be heaviest this afternoon. Snow showers should continue overnight. Latest models still have over a foot falling by tonight on the mtn. and over 6" in town. We are right on track for the 3-4 feet for a storm total.
A big storm is right offshore by tomorrow, but it will stall just off the coast as there is a quick jam in the progression of storms caused by a big trough in the East that will last a few days. This storm will pump a ridge over us Wed.-Sat. and bring sunshine and temps in the 40's, perfect weather for the Dew Tour finals at Northstar this weekend!
The storm sitting off the coast will be pumping up some decent moisture from the tropics. It looks like this moisture will finally move in sometime around Sat. night. Meanwhile a storm will be coming down out of Alaska & help to push the storm inland, as well as possibly tap into the moisture from the storm. This could be another prolonged snow event lasting into the middle of next week and dropping several more feet of snow. Snow levels could start a little higher with the subtropical moisture but then fall as the cold front approaches from Alaska.
The ridge looks to stay stationary just North of Hawaii thru the first week of March. This will leave the storm door wide open with storms continuing to drop down from Alaska. These will be cold storms since they are dropping down from the North. According to Ed Berry's latest discussion, he believes the ridge will possibly hold over Hawaii well into spring. If this is the case we may be able to get to and possibly surpass average for the seasonal snowfall. Keep your fingers crossed. BA
Monday, February 16, 2009
Monday Evening Update......
Storm is still nearly stationary off the coast. Waves of moisture will rotate inland overnight. 6-12 inches should fall up on the mtn. Snowfall picks up one last time Tuesday as the main low finally moves in off the ocean. Snow showers could continue into Tuesday night before tapering off. Another 6-12 inches could fall with the main low. Total 3 day storm accumulation would be around 2 feet in town and 3 - 4 feet on the mtn.
Next storm is just off the coast by Wednesday. This is a big storm with subtropical moisture that was forecasted to hit us on Wednesday. This was all the hype last week as this storm would have sat over us like the current one and dumped another 3-5 feet on us for a total of 6-10 ft. in one week. It now looks like it will stall off the coast due to a big trough to be carved out over the Eastern U.S. that will block the high from progressing East that is over the Rockies. This will put a jam in the flow of storms for a couple days with some sun and warmer temps for the Dew tour!
Sometime around Fri-Sat. a storm will come out of Alaska & possibly tap into the moisture from the storm stalled off the coast. Latest models show this storm bringing quite a bit of snow next weekend as it sits off the coast and rotates in moisture for a few days similar to the current storm. We could still see 6-10 ft. for a total between the current storm and this storm, but it will just take a few extra days.
Models show the storms continuing to drop down from Alaska thru the end of the month & into March. According to Ed Berry's latest discussion, he believes the ridge will hold over Hawaii for at least the next couple weeks and possibly into spring. This should leave the storm door open for a while as storms slide over the ridge and into CA. BA
Next storm is just off the coast by Wednesday. This is a big storm with subtropical moisture that was forecasted to hit us on Wednesday. This was all the hype last week as this storm would have sat over us like the current one and dumped another 3-5 feet on us for a total of 6-10 ft. in one week. It now looks like it will stall off the coast due to a big trough to be carved out over the Eastern U.S. that will block the high from progressing East that is over the Rockies. This will put a jam in the flow of storms for a couple days with some sun and warmer temps for the Dew tour!
Sometime around Fri-Sat. a storm will come out of Alaska & possibly tap into the moisture from the storm stalled off the coast. Latest models show this storm bringing quite a bit of snow next weekend as it sits off the coast and rotates in moisture for a few days similar to the current storm. We could still see 6-10 ft. for a total between the current storm and this storm, but it will just take a few extra days.
Models show the storms continuing to drop down from Alaska thru the end of the month & into March. According to Ed Berry's latest discussion, he believes the ridge will hold over Hawaii for at least the next couple weeks and possibly into spring. This should leave the storm door open for a while as storms slide over the ridge and into CA. BA
Sunday, February 15, 2009
Sunday 4 P.M.
Slow moving storm is currently sitting off the coast spinning in moisture. Heavier band has been over Tahoe all day with 10" in the village as of 4 p.m. so guessing well over a foot up top. Snow will continue until Wed. morning. Estimates are now over 2ft. in town and up to 5ft. on top of the mtn. by Wed. morning. Snow may lighten up a little into Mon. morning as the heavy band shifts West but by Mon. afternoon it shifts back over Tahoe and lasts into Mon. night. The main low comes thru Tuesday with another shot of heavy snow and then snow showers waning into Wed. morning.
Next storm is just off the coast by Wednesday. This is a big storm with subtropical moisture that was forecasted to hit us on Wednesday. It now looks like it will stall off the coast due to a big trough to be carved out over the Eastern U.S. that will block the high from progressing East that is over the Rockies. This will put a jam in the flow of storms for couple days only. Sometime around Fri-Sat. a storm will come out of Alaska & possibly tap into the moisture from the storm stalled off the coast. Latest models show this storm bringing quite a bit of snow next weekend.
Models show the storms continuing to drop down from Alaska thru the end of the month & into March. According to Ed Berry's latest discussion, he believes the ridge will hold over Hawaii for at least the next couple weeks and possibly into spring. This should leave the storm door open for a while as storms slide over the ridge and into CA. BA
Next storm is just off the coast by Wednesday. This is a big storm with subtropical moisture that was forecasted to hit us on Wednesday. It now looks like it will stall off the coast due to a big trough to be carved out over the Eastern U.S. that will block the high from progressing East that is over the Rockies. This will put a jam in the flow of storms for couple days only. Sometime around Fri-Sat. a storm will come out of Alaska & possibly tap into the moisture from the storm stalled off the coast. Latest models show this storm bringing quite a bit of snow next weekend.
Models show the storms continuing to drop down from Alaska thru the end of the month & into March. According to Ed Berry's latest discussion, he believes the ridge will hold over Hawaii for at least the next couple weeks and possibly into spring. This should leave the storm door open for a while as storms slide over the ridge and into CA. BA
Saturday, February 14, 2009
Sunday 11 a.m. Update......
Slow moving storm is currently sitting off the coast spinning in moisture. Heavier band has been able to move over Tahoe, will have to wait & see if projected totals go up. Looks like the models may have underdone the snowfall today with 3-6 inches. Right now it looks like at least 6 inches since we already have 3" here in the village at 11 a.m. & it's only been snowing 3 hours. Models showing another 5-10 inches tonight and 1-2 feet Monday into Monday night. Snow showers should continue Tuesday, but much lighter. Total liquid upped to 2-2.5 inches, so total snowfall looks to be 2.5-3+ ft. on the mtn. by Tuesday night, and around 1-2 feet town.
Next storm is just off the coast by Wednesday. This is a big storm with subtropical moisture that was forecasted to hit us on Wednesday. It now looks like it will stall off the coast due to a big trough to be carved out over the Eastern U.S. that will block the high from progressing East that is over the Rockies. This will put a jam in the flow of storms for couple days only. Sometime around Fri-Sat. the storm will finally come onshore, with a push from another storm coming out of Alaska. This could bring quite a bit of snow next weekend.
Models show the storms continuing to drop down from Alaska thru the end of the month & into March. According to Ed Berry's latest discussion, he believes the ridge will hold over Hawaii for at least the next couple weeks and possibly into spring. This should leave the storm door open for a while as storms slide over the ridge and into CA. BA
Next storm is just off the coast by Wednesday. This is a big storm with subtropical moisture that was forecasted to hit us on Wednesday. It now looks like it will stall off the coast due to a big trough to be carved out over the Eastern U.S. that will block the high from progressing East that is over the Rockies. This will put a jam in the flow of storms for couple days only. Sometime around Fri-Sat. the storm will finally come onshore, with a push from another storm coming out of Alaska. This could bring quite a bit of snow next weekend.
Models show the storms continuing to drop down from Alaska thru the end of the month & into March. According to Ed Berry's latest discussion, he believes the ridge will hold over Hawaii for at least the next couple weeks and possibly into spring. This should leave the storm door open for a while as storms slide over the ridge and into CA. BA
Sat. A.M. Update......Updated..
Main low was much better organized than the last storm. It pumped snow across Tahoe all night and it is still dumping as of 7 a.m. As of 6 a.m. Northstar was reporting 17" of snow in the past 24 hours, & it has been snowing all morning. Along the crest areas reporting 2 feet in the past 24 hours. This is Rocky Mtn. style powder, cold and dry.
Next storms is spinning just off the coast. It has slowed down a lot. It should sit off the coast and spin in some snow showers today thru Sunday. Accumulations should be light today & tonight with about 1-3 inches for both. During the day Sunday the snowshowers may be a little more frequent with 3-6 inches of snow. Heavier snow moves in for Sunday night & Monday as the heavier moisture band finally moves South over Tahoe. Latest models have the snow lasting as long as Wednesday morning before tapering off, but the heaviest snow would fall Monday & Tuesday. NWS has a winter storm watch for 1 foot at lake level & 2 feet above 7000 ft. just on Sunday night into Monday. Latest models show 2-2.5 inches of liquid by Wed. morning. Snow ratios should go down during the day to around 10:1 and then back up at night to 20:1. So average would be 15:1. That would be around 2 feet at lake level and 4 ft. on top of the mtn. by the time the storm stops.
Next storm is just off the coast by Wednesday. Remember the talk about the warming of the stratosphere (SSW) that I talked about a couple weeks ago. It was going to cause continental arctic outbreaks in the troposhere. Well one of those outbreaks will be a big trough that will be carved out over the Eastern U.S. If you have been reading along this winter you know that troughs in the East slow down the progression of storms into the West Coast. Good news is that there won't be a ridge off the West Coast, it will stay over Hawaii. The big storm will stall off our coast Wed.-Fri. and then when the trough finally kicks out of the East by next weekend the storm will be able to come onshore. So we will get a little brake for about 2-3 days and then the big storms start up again by next weekend.
According to Ed Berry's latest discussion, he believes the ridge will hold over Hawaii for at least the next couple weeks and possibly into spring. This should leave the storm door open for a while. In the mean time we need to keep an eye on this big storm this weekend, stay tuned.....BA
Next storms is spinning just off the coast. It has slowed down a lot. It should sit off the coast and spin in some snow showers today thru Sunday. Accumulations should be light today & tonight with about 1-3 inches for both. During the day Sunday the snowshowers may be a little more frequent with 3-6 inches of snow. Heavier snow moves in for Sunday night & Monday as the heavier moisture band finally moves South over Tahoe. Latest models have the snow lasting as long as Wednesday morning before tapering off, but the heaviest snow would fall Monday & Tuesday. NWS has a winter storm watch for 1 foot at lake level & 2 feet above 7000 ft. just on Sunday night into Monday. Latest models show 2-2.5 inches of liquid by Wed. morning. Snow ratios should go down during the day to around 10:1 and then back up at night to 20:1. So average would be 15:1. That would be around 2 feet at lake level and 4 ft. on top of the mtn. by the time the storm stops.
Next storm is just off the coast by Wednesday. Remember the talk about the warming of the stratosphere (SSW) that I talked about a couple weeks ago. It was going to cause continental arctic outbreaks in the troposhere. Well one of those outbreaks will be a big trough that will be carved out over the Eastern U.S. If you have been reading along this winter you know that troughs in the East slow down the progression of storms into the West Coast. Good news is that there won't be a ridge off the West Coast, it will stay over Hawaii. The big storm will stall off our coast Wed.-Fri. and then when the trough finally kicks out of the East by next weekend the storm will be able to come onshore. So we will get a little brake for about 2-3 days and then the big storms start up again by next weekend.
According to Ed Berry's latest discussion, he believes the ridge will hold over Hawaii for at least the next couple weeks and possibly into spring. This should leave the storm door open for a while. In the mean time we need to keep an eye on this big storm this weekend, stay tuned.....BA
Friday, February 13, 2009
Friday P.M. Update....
Main low coming in off the ocean is not falling apart like the last one. Quite a bit of snowshowers have formed and are currently stacking up against the crest but have yet to spill over. Models showing a decent amount of moisture, .25-.5 inches of liquid with a high snow ratios of 20:1 that is another 5-10 inches of snow. I was up riding on N* today and there was about 6" on top so a foot+ seems reasonable as a storm total. 10-15" should fall up on the crest overnight.
Next storm should have snow arriving Sat. night. The storm looks to slow down so the heaviest snow may not arrive until Sun. night/Mon. As the storm slows off the coast, instead of the moisture streaming in out of the Southwest, models have it tilting and the stream turning out of the South on Sunday so lighter snow will fall, and then the winds will go SW on Monday which will increase snowfall rates. This would also make it harder for the precip to be forced over the crest. Storm will last into Tuesday, & by then models have 1.25-2 inches of liquid over Tahoe we would be looking at 2-3 feet.
Models coming back around to a snowy pattern for the rest of the week, although the details aren't competely clear. Snowfall, heavy at times, could last into the following weekend with feet of accumulation. Ed Berry's latest dicussion talks about the pattern lasting at least the next 2 weeks, if not thru the spring. Latest GFS model showing no let up in the train of storms thru the end of the month and into the beginning of March. Stay tuned. BA
Pattern still looks to remain stormy thru the end of the month. BA
Next storm should have snow arriving Sat. night. The storm looks to slow down so the heaviest snow may not arrive until Sun. night/Mon. As the storm slows off the coast, instead of the moisture streaming in out of the Southwest, models have it tilting and the stream turning out of the South on Sunday so lighter snow will fall, and then the winds will go SW on Monday which will increase snowfall rates. This would also make it harder for the precip to be forced over the crest. Storm will last into Tuesday, & by then models have 1.25-2 inches of liquid over Tahoe we would be looking at 2-3 feet.
Models coming back around to a snowy pattern for the rest of the week, although the details aren't competely clear. Snowfall, heavy at times, could last into the following weekend with feet of accumulation. Ed Berry's latest dicussion talks about the pattern lasting at least the next 2 weeks, if not thru the spring. Latest GFS model showing no let up in the train of storms thru the end of the month and into the beginning of March. Stay tuned. BA
Pattern still looks to remain stormy thru the end of the month. BA
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Thursday Evening Update......
Next storm is currently moving onshore in NW CA. Snow should arrive sometime in the early morning hours. Currently, it looks as though the heaviest snow will fall during the day Friday as the front moves thru. There should be a lull sometime Fri. evening, & then the main low comes onshore Fri. night increasing snow showers into Sat. morning. Latest models show .25 -.5 inches of liquid with both the front on Friday and the main low Fri. night. Snow ratios during the day should be around 15:1 during the day and then 20:1 at night. That would mean 4-8 inches during the day Friday and then 5-10 inches Friday night into Saturday if the main low doesn't fall apart like last night's low. Storm total of 9-18 inches by Sat.
Yet another storm arrives Sat. night & could last until Tuesday. This storm should be a bigger & slower storm, tapping into more moisture off the ocean. Storm may almost stall off the coast and pump in moisture Sat. night-Tues. Latest models are showing .75-1 inches of liquid by Tuesday, so that would be around 12-18 inches. That is about half of what this mornings models had because the latest have the heaviest moisture band coming from the south pumping up just to our West. more than twice as much liquid is shown there. If the low sets up just a little further East like this mornings models had, we could easily see twice as much snow.
Another storm nears the coast for Tues/Wed. The European was disagreeing with the other models for the second half of next week, but most forecasters are deciding to discount the European. This is because there has been so much agreement from so many models for so many days now on a wet pattern. Latest models are still showing a stream of moisture setting up for Tues.-Fri. They have cut back a little on the amount of moisture but that could change. Still showing at least 2-3 feet over the period. Will have to keep watching as the details will make a big difference between big snow, and crippling snow.
Quick Disclaimer: I have posted this before, but just a reminder that this is an "unofficial" weather blog. I have been a hobby meteorologist and studied meteorology for a couple years in college, but I am not a professional meteorologist. For detailed "official" forecasts please refer to outlets such as the National Weather Service. This blog was created for people in the Tahoe area that love snow. I do tons of research, and I try to break down the technical terms and make the weather patterns easier to understand and pinpointed to Tahoe. I also to try to make it entertaining & upbeat as everyone knows when we are in a drought or lacking snow. We are all looking for next big dump of powder. Negative comments will not be posted as they are not necessary and defeat the purpose of this blog. This blog is for positive people that love Tahoe and love snow, all others please find another blog or start your own.
Thanks for reading, enjoy the snow! BA
Yet another storm arrives Sat. night & could last until Tuesday. This storm should be a bigger & slower storm, tapping into more moisture off the ocean. Storm may almost stall off the coast and pump in moisture Sat. night-Tues. Latest models are showing .75-1 inches of liquid by Tuesday, so that would be around 12-18 inches. That is about half of what this mornings models had because the latest have the heaviest moisture band coming from the south pumping up just to our West. more than twice as much liquid is shown there. If the low sets up just a little further East like this mornings models had, we could easily see twice as much snow.
Another storm nears the coast for Tues/Wed. The European was disagreeing with the other models for the second half of next week, but most forecasters are deciding to discount the European. This is because there has been so much agreement from so many models for so many days now on a wet pattern. Latest models are still showing a stream of moisture setting up for Tues.-Fri. They have cut back a little on the amount of moisture but that could change. Still showing at least 2-3 feet over the period. Will have to keep watching as the details will make a big difference between big snow, and crippling snow.
Quick Disclaimer: I have posted this before, but just a reminder that this is an "unofficial" weather blog. I have been a hobby meteorologist and studied meteorology for a couple years in college, but I am not a professional meteorologist. For detailed "official" forecasts please refer to outlets such as the National Weather Service. This blog was created for people in the Tahoe area that love snow. I do tons of research, and I try to break down the technical terms and make the weather patterns easier to understand and pinpointed to Tahoe. I also to try to make it entertaining & upbeat as everyone knows when we are in a drought or lacking snow. We are all looking for next big dump of powder. Negative comments will not be posted as they are not necessary and defeat the purpose of this blog. This blog is for positive people that love Tahoe and love snow, all others please find another blog or start your own.
Thanks for reading, enjoy the snow! BA
Monday, February 9, 2009
Jan. Re-cap/Here Comes Winter!
I was so into the upcoming pattern that I completely forgot to do the Jan. re-cap the first of Feb, so here it is followed by the usual weather discussion.
Once again these stats are from the Truckee airport. We ended up 1.5 degrees below normal for the average temp. That may be surprising with all the sun but it was still cold. We have been below normal for the avg. temp. 8 out of the last 10 years, netting -21 degrees & averaging 2.1 degrees below avg. the past 10 Januarys. As of Feb. 1st the snowpack was 63% of Feb. 1st avg., this time last year we were at 124% of Feb. 1st avg. Don’t worry I think we will be ahead of March 1st avg.! Total precip. was 1” which is only 19% of average. The Tahoe Basin as a whole averaged 45% of normal Jan. precip. That puts us at around 73% of average on the water year which starts in September. Northstar ended up about 1 foot shy of the halfway mark to their seasonal avg. of 350” and the crest about 3 feet short. Those numbers obviously less with the 2-3 feet over the past week.
Onto the storms………Cold storm still on it’s way to arrive sometime Tuesday night and last into Thursday. There should be a wave of heavier snow ahead of the storm Tuesday night and another heavier wave Wed. night. Should see around 4-8 inches Tuesday night with 2-4 inches during the day Wed. Then another 6-12 inches Wed. night into Thurs. This should give us a storm total of 1-2 feet by Thursday morning.
Another storm arrive for Friday. This storm is looking wetter each model run. Could see over a foot of additional snow by Saturday. Yet another storm arrives on Sunday with another foot possible for a storm total of 3-4 feet by Monday.
An interesting pattern sets up for next week, as previously detailed in Sunday’s post “Three Storms Three Feet”. The position of the ridges and troughs could connect perfectly to set up a feed of moisture that would bring in BIG storms for next week. One storm around Tuesday and another around Friday. These storms could produce multiple feet each. There will not be much of a break in the snow after tomorrow. The one thing we will have to watch for is exactly where the moisture comes from feeding these storms. We don’t want too much sub-tropical moisture which would raise snow levels.
Let’s just concentrate on the three cold storms affecting us until then. BA
Once again these stats are from the Truckee airport. We ended up 1.5 degrees below normal for the average temp. That may be surprising with all the sun but it was still cold. We have been below normal for the avg. temp. 8 out of the last 10 years, netting -21 degrees & averaging 2.1 degrees below avg. the past 10 Januarys. As of Feb. 1st the snowpack was 63% of Feb. 1st avg., this time last year we were at 124% of Feb. 1st avg. Don’t worry I think we will be ahead of March 1st avg.! Total precip. was 1” which is only 19% of average. The Tahoe Basin as a whole averaged 45% of normal Jan. precip. That puts us at around 73% of average on the water year which starts in September. Northstar ended up about 1 foot shy of the halfway mark to their seasonal avg. of 350” and the crest about 3 feet short. Those numbers obviously less with the 2-3 feet over the past week.
Onto the storms………Cold storm still on it’s way to arrive sometime Tuesday night and last into Thursday. There should be a wave of heavier snow ahead of the storm Tuesday night and another heavier wave Wed. night. Should see around 4-8 inches Tuesday night with 2-4 inches during the day Wed. Then another 6-12 inches Wed. night into Thurs. This should give us a storm total of 1-2 feet by Thursday morning.
Another storm arrive for Friday. This storm is looking wetter each model run. Could see over a foot of additional snow by Saturday. Yet another storm arrives on Sunday with another foot possible for a storm total of 3-4 feet by Monday.
An interesting pattern sets up for next week, as previously detailed in Sunday’s post “Three Storms Three Feet”. The position of the ridges and troughs could connect perfectly to set up a feed of moisture that would bring in BIG storms for next week. One storm around Tuesday and another around Friday. These storms could produce multiple feet each. There will not be much of a break in the snow after tomorrow. The one thing we will have to watch for is exactly where the moisture comes from feeding these storms. We don’t want too much sub-tropical moisture which would raise snow levels.
Let’s just concentrate on the three cold storms affecting us until then. BA
Sunday, February 8, 2009
Storm Update Mon. A.M.
Instability ahead of the main cold front caused a heavy band of snow to move thru between 7 & 9 p.m. Cold front also held together longer than expected as it came thru. Northstar is reporting over 13 inches on top over 10 at the bottom. Areas along the crest reporting anywhere from 14-20 inches. Even in Truckee they picked up 10", with 12" at Prosser Lake.
Next storm arrives in 36 hours!
Next storm arrives in 36 hours!
Three Storms, Three Feet........and Beyond.........
Active pattern has begun. A storm will move thru quickly tonight bringing cold air and a quick shot of heavy snow. The way the Front is coming in, N-S oriented instead of W-E, and it's speed, will limit the amount of snow that can fall overnight. The storm also doesn't have all that much moisture to work with. The cold front will be quite strong though, so heavy snow should break out along the cold front. Latest models show about 4-8 inches of snow falling in a short period of about 6 hours as the front comes thru. The cold air behind the front should keep snow showers going into Monday. Always hard to tell how much additional snow will fall with post-frontal showers, but a few more inches are possible. Total storm accumulations should be 6-12 inches. An additional piece of energy may come thru Monday night and spark off a few more snow showers with light accumulations.
After a quick break on Tuesday another storm should move in Tuesday night. This storm is moving much slower. Snow could fall into Thursday as the low slowly moves through NorCal. Models showing over an inch of liquid over the two days so over a foot could fall.
Another storm follows quickly on Friday into Saturday. This storm is also slower moving and could have snow showers lasting into Sunday. Models also show over an inch of liquid with this storm which would be over another foot.
The storms this week won't be overly moist because they are coming down from the North over the ridge out at 140w and aren't getting great over water trajectory and jet support that would give them lots of moisture. Still, over the next 7 days with the several storms models show 2-2.5 inches of liquid which would be 2-3 feet of snow. Just to our North and South amounts could be a couple feet more. Will have to continue to monitor the speed of these storms and their exact track as it could change the snow amounts expected.
After reading Ed Berry's discussion and looking at some longer range models, I feel more confident about bigger storms starting President's weekend. Blocking over the North Atlantic still looks to move back over Canada. Meanwhile the ridge out over the ocean should continue to move back towards the Central Pacific closer to 160w in time, and possibly stay there for a while! Also, tropical activity out between 130-140E is very active. These factors combined will connect a stream of moisture coming all the way from the Indian Ocean that will be feeding the Pacific Jet-Stream and strengthening storms. With the ridge out over the Central Pacific, storms will have a longer path over water and better jet support and the blocking backing up from Canada will add to the jet aiming right at CA.
All that means that much bigger storms will start affecting us starting around President's Day. Models currently show quite a BIG storm hitting on President's Day. This storm could produce multiple feet of snow just itself. Could this be the President's Day Blizzard of 09'?
There is no end in sight to the stormy weather. After looking at long range European model, some forecasters suggest normal-above normal precip thru April! This is good news for the drought conditions. Stay tuned, this is getting exciting! BA
After a quick break on Tuesday another storm should move in Tuesday night. This storm is moving much slower. Snow could fall into Thursday as the low slowly moves through NorCal. Models showing over an inch of liquid over the two days so over a foot could fall.
Another storm follows quickly on Friday into Saturday. This storm is also slower moving and could have snow showers lasting into Sunday. Models also show over an inch of liquid with this storm which would be over another foot.
The storms this week won't be overly moist because they are coming down from the North over the ridge out at 140w and aren't getting great over water trajectory and jet support that would give them lots of moisture. Still, over the next 7 days with the several storms models show 2-2.5 inches of liquid which would be 2-3 feet of snow. Just to our North and South amounts could be a couple feet more. Will have to continue to monitor the speed of these storms and their exact track as it could change the snow amounts expected.
After reading Ed Berry's discussion and looking at some longer range models, I feel more confident about bigger storms starting President's weekend. Blocking over the North Atlantic still looks to move back over Canada. Meanwhile the ridge out over the ocean should continue to move back towards the Central Pacific closer to 160w in time, and possibly stay there for a while! Also, tropical activity out between 130-140E is very active. These factors combined will connect a stream of moisture coming all the way from the Indian Ocean that will be feeding the Pacific Jet-Stream and strengthening storms. With the ridge out over the Central Pacific, storms will have a longer path over water and better jet support and the blocking backing up from Canada will add to the jet aiming right at CA.
All that means that much bigger storms will start affecting us starting around President's Day. Models currently show quite a BIG storm hitting on President's Day. This storm could produce multiple feet of snow just itself. Could this be the President's Day Blizzard of 09'?
There is no end in sight to the stormy weather. After looking at long range European model, some forecasters suggest normal-above normal precip thru April! This is good news for the drought conditions. Stay tuned, this is getting exciting! BA
Saturday, February 7, 2009
This is just the beginning!...
Storms 1 & 2, though not very impressive, did manage to break open the storm door and freshen up the slopes. Storm 2 is just winding down this morning and all snow showers should end by this afternoon. Band of snow set up along South Lake Tahoe overnight so they saw a few more inches than North Lake. As of 6 a.m. this morning Northstar had 6” so far from the 2 storms, and Sierra at Tahoe had 9” and it was still snowing. Looking at storm totals from around Tahoe most areas received 6-12 inches from the two storms combined.
A brief break in the action tonight and then another, fast moving & colder, storm will move in Sunday afternoon. This storm is bigger and coming in off the ocean, but the speed of it will limit big snow accumulations. Current models suggest .5-.75 inches of liquid, which with the colder temps and higher snow-water ratios should mean another 6-12 inches of snow falls. Snow showers will linger into Monday which could keep amounts piling a little higher.
A brief break for Tuesday and then another storm comes down the coast for Wed/Thurs, & another for Friday. How much over water these storms track would affect how much snow we get but current model thinking is around 1-1.5 feet Wed.-Fri. I am thinking we can get an additional 2+ feet for everyone by President’s weekend. The only day it shouldn’t snow is Tuesday.
Looking further out, a couple more storms are possible over President’s weekend and more into the following week. I think that the storm track is more over water Starting next weekend as the ridge backs up out in the Pacific. This should make the storms bigger for the last two weeks of Feb.
I will be posting tonight on the long range outlook, as is usual on Saturdays, after Ed Berry’s discussion posts. The long-range European model that goes into March was also just released, so I will be talking about the next couple of months. To give you a glimpse it looks as though precip amounts should be at or above normal into April. BA
A brief break in the action tonight and then another, fast moving & colder, storm will move in Sunday afternoon. This storm is bigger and coming in off the ocean, but the speed of it will limit big snow accumulations. Current models suggest .5-.75 inches of liquid, which with the colder temps and higher snow-water ratios should mean another 6-12 inches of snow falls. Snow showers will linger into Monday which could keep amounts piling a little higher.
A brief break for Tuesday and then another storm comes down the coast for Wed/Thurs, & another for Friday. How much over water these storms track would affect how much snow we get but current model thinking is around 1-1.5 feet Wed.-Fri. I am thinking we can get an additional 2+ feet for everyone by President’s weekend. The only day it shouldn’t snow is Tuesday.
Looking further out, a couple more storms are possible over President’s weekend and more into the following week. I think that the storm track is more over water Starting next weekend as the ridge backs up out in the Pacific. This should make the storms bigger for the last two weeks of Feb.
I will be posting tonight on the long range outlook, as is usual on Saturdays, after Ed Berry’s discussion posts. The long-range European model that goes into March was also just released, so I will be talking about the next couple of months. To give you a glimpse it looks as though precip amounts should be at or above normal into April. BA
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
Friday 6 P.M. Update....
Models continue to show a band of snow setting up overnight and into the morning, possibly stalling near Tahoe. They are showing an additional 3-6 inches of snow overnight.
Sunday night/Monday storm still on track, and cold with higher snow ratios. Totals will depend on how much over water trajectory the storm has. The more over water the more we could get. Latest models show it digging a little further West over water. Current thinking is at least a foot of snow for everyone.
Another storm moves in Wed. night into Thursday, & another over President's weekend. These storms are also dependent on how far out of water they track. Currently they look to come down more over land with lighter snow amounts, but that could change.
Models, analogs, & global atmospheric patterns still pointing towards a train of storms hitting every couple days for the next 2-3 weeks. Storms should get stronger the week after President's weekend. Stay tuned as this new pattern unfolds and the details become clearer. BA
Sunday night/Monday storm still on track, and cold with higher snow ratios. Totals will depend on how much over water trajectory the storm has. The more over water the more we could get. Latest models show it digging a little further West over water. Current thinking is at least a foot of snow for everyone.
Another storm moves in Wed. night into Thursday, & another over President's weekend. These storms are also dependent on how far out of water they track. Currently they look to come down more over land with lighter snow amounts, but that could change.
Models, analogs, & global atmospheric patterns still pointing towards a train of storms hitting every couple days for the next 2-3 weeks. Storms should get stronger the week after President's weekend. Stay tuned as this new pattern unfolds and the details become clearer. BA
Priming the Pump.....
No changes on Thurs/Fri storms, 6-12 inches.
Monday storm should be another foot, but it will bring much colder air in for next week.
The main point of this post is the rest of the month. Ridge is out around 140w and should slowly move back to 150w and 160w over the next few weeks. The more it moves back the, the more each storm can dig South and tap into more moisture. The storms should get progressively wetter/snowier as we go thru the month. The idea of a big Feb. is not new. There are many factors that will be working in our favor. The new 12z GFS model is a perfect example of how the pattern should evolve.
The trend of the models over the past week has been for them to show storms going North of us more than a week out and then bringing them further South as the storm gets closer. That is the case with the storm for next Monday and now they are doing the same with the storm for next Thursday.
The storm door is open starting tomorrow. The first few storms will prime the pump and then it’s “Game On!”. There are some suggestions that the snowpack in the Sierra will be double by the end of the month. It’s definitely possible with the pattern that could set up. I get more excited each day but with the way winter has gone so far I am holding on to some reservations. I think I’ll feel better after the first multiple foot dump, how bout you? BA
Monday storm should be another foot, but it will bring much colder air in for next week.
The main point of this post is the rest of the month. Ridge is out around 140w and should slowly move back to 150w and 160w over the next few weeks. The more it moves back the, the more each storm can dig South and tap into more moisture. The storms should get progressively wetter/snowier as we go thru the month. The idea of a big Feb. is not new. There are many factors that will be working in our favor. The new 12z GFS model is a perfect example of how the pattern should evolve.
The trend of the models over the past week has been for them to show storms going North of us more than a week out and then bringing them further South as the storm gets closer. That is the case with the storm for next Monday and now they are doing the same with the storm for next Thursday.
The storm door is open starting tomorrow. The first few storms will prime the pump and then it’s “Game On!”. There are some suggestions that the snowpack in the Sierra will be double by the end of the month. It’s definitely possible with the pattern that could set up. I get more excited each day but with the way winter has gone so far I am holding on to some reservations. I think I’ll feel better after the first multiple foot dump, how bout you? BA
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
Time to Break it Down!!!.....
The ridge that is, the ridge from hell. Rumor has it that El Nino is in the cards for next winter. Can you imagine warmer water and a Southern jet with no more ridge off the West Coast? I can only dream. Here is a pic of what a storm splitting looks like. Look at the main energy splitting into SoCal with a gap forming between the engery in NorCal.
One more mild day and then a change is finally coming. There is a storm just off the coast that is cut-off from the main flow of the jetstream. It has a pretty decent moisture tap off the ocean, but it will start to dry up as it hits the dry air in place from the departing ridge of high pressure. The storm will split in half as it comes onshore and the bulk of the energy with the moisture tap will head into SoCal. The northern half will head across Northern CA. Snow showers should start sometime during the Thursday morning and last into the evening. Snow levels will start around 7000 ft. but quickly crash below lake level by Thursday afternoon. Latest model outputs for liquid with this first storm are pretty weak with only about 1/4 of an inch. That would equate to around 3 inches of snow. I would think not much accumulation with the radational heating thru the clouds during the day in town and 3 inches on the mtn., with maybe closer to 6 on top.
Second storm comes down the coast with a cold front on Friday. With the air already moist this storm should bring better snowfall. It will slide straight down the coast and not push inland till it reaches SoCal. They should again pick up the bulk of the precip. With no push towards the East the heaviest snow should get stuck up on the Western crest, similar to the storm two weeks ago. Models vary on the amount of moisture that will get drawn up into the Sierra. Some show about 9-12 inches on the crest with about 6-9 at Northstar, and some show a little more with 12-15 inches along the crest with 9-12 at Northstar. Areas to the South & West will get more, like Sierra at Tahoe. This track could change a little so will have to update the expected totals the next two days, but this will overall be a moderate snow event with 6-12 inches maybe a little more. SoCal needs the rain so this will help.
Most models have become more consistent today with a stronger and colder storm for Monday dropping over a foot of additional snow. One model that is relied heavily upon still has the bulk of the storm staying North of us. I am growing more confident of this storm but can't go completely in until the other model catches onto the same idea.
Still not going to go into the extended as models are all over the place. This usually means a big change in the pattern. On the table is the possibility of storms continuing every couple of days for a few weeks. Stay tuned....BA
Monday, February 2, 2009
The Details....Mon. P.M.
These cut-off storms are enough to drive you crazy. I don't want to pinpoint any details because they could change with the slightest change in track of the storms. I will say that we can bet on at least 6 inches for everyone and then go up from there with better chance of up to a foot above 7000 ft.
First storm will head towards CA and then split on Thursday with one piece coming across NorCal and Tahoe, and the other piece into SoCal. This will cut off the strong moisture tap from the northern piece, but it will also keep snow levels lower without the warm subtropical moisture. Snow levels should start above 7000 ft. but then quickly lower to lake level during the day Thursday. Several inches of snow will fall with more the closer you are to the Western Sierra Crest.
A cold front with another cut-off low behind it will move in on Friday. The cold front itself will enhance snowfall and create several more inches for everyone with snow levels below 5000 ft. Cut-off then comes down the coast and keeps the snow showers going into possibly Sat. morning. Models have this low staying offshore then coming in across SoCal so the heaviest precip would be to our South and snow showers would be heavier the closer you are to the crest. A slight jog East in the track and we will get more snow.
Hopefully amounts will become more clear and go up in the next two days. Good news is that the storm will be mostly snow for all.
Models have no clue in the extended. Several storms are lined up to come into the West Coast every few days. Latest models want to keep the heaviest snow just to our North with the pesky high pressure ridge sitting out at 140w. Still thinking there will be a southward shift in the jet the next couple of weeks with the block in Canada moving towards Alaska. Therefore I will ignore the models beyond 5 days and just say that the weather pattern will stay unsettled. BA
First storm will head towards CA and then split on Thursday with one piece coming across NorCal and Tahoe, and the other piece into SoCal. This will cut off the strong moisture tap from the northern piece, but it will also keep snow levels lower without the warm subtropical moisture. Snow levels should start above 7000 ft. but then quickly lower to lake level during the day Thursday. Several inches of snow will fall with more the closer you are to the Western Sierra Crest.
A cold front with another cut-off low behind it will move in on Friday. The cold front itself will enhance snowfall and create several more inches for everyone with snow levels below 5000 ft. Cut-off then comes down the coast and keeps the snow showers going into possibly Sat. morning. Models have this low staying offshore then coming in across SoCal so the heaviest precip would be to our South and snow showers would be heavier the closer you are to the crest. A slight jog East in the track and we will get more snow.
Hopefully amounts will become more clear and go up in the next two days. Good news is that the storm will be mostly snow for all.
Models have no clue in the extended. Several storms are lined up to come into the West Coast every few days. Latest models want to keep the heaviest snow just to our North with the pesky high pressure ridge sitting out at 140w. Still thinking there will be a southward shift in the jet the next couple of weeks with the block in Canada moving towards Alaska. Therefore I will ignore the models beyond 5 days and just say that the weather pattern will stay unsettled. BA
Sunday, February 1, 2009
Sunday Update.....
No major changes to talk about. Storm still on track for Thurs-Sat. Models disagree on who gets the most snow, Tahoe or south of Tahoe. Those details will become clearer in the next few days.
Models are starting to catch onto the idea of the southward shifted polar jet for the middle-end of Feb. If this pans out the hose would be turned on and we could easily go back to avg. or above snowfall on the year. Will be interesting to watch. BA
Models are starting to catch onto the idea of the southward shifted polar jet for the middle-end of Feb. If this pans out the hose would be turned on and we could easily go back to avg. or above snowfall on the year. Will be interesting to watch. BA
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