Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Thursday Evening Update......

Next storm is currently moving onshore in NW CA. Snow should arrive sometime in the early morning hours. Currently, it looks as though the heaviest snow will fall during the day Friday as the front moves thru. There should be a lull sometime Fri. evening, & then the main low comes onshore Fri. night increasing snow showers into Sat. morning. Latest models show .25 -.5 inches of liquid with both the front on Friday and the main low Fri. night. Snow ratios during the day should be around 15:1 during the day and then 20:1 at night. That would mean 4-8 inches during the day Friday and then 5-10 inches Friday night into Saturday if the main low doesn't fall apart like last night's low. Storm total of 9-18 inches by Sat.

Yet another storm arrives Sat. night & could last until Tuesday. This storm should be a bigger & slower storm, tapping into more moisture off the ocean. Storm may almost stall off the coast and pump in moisture Sat. night-Tues. Latest models are showing .75-1 inches of liquid by Tuesday, so that would be around 12-18 inches. That is about half of what this mornings models had because the latest have the heaviest moisture band coming from the south pumping up just to our West. more than twice as much liquid is shown there. If the low sets up just a little further East like this mornings models had, we could easily see twice as much snow.

Another storm nears the coast for Tues/Wed. The European was disagreeing with the other models for the second half of next week, but most forecasters are deciding to discount the European. This is because there has been so much agreement from so many models for so many days now on a wet pattern. Latest models are still showing a stream of moisture setting up for Tues.-Fri. They have cut back a little on the amount of moisture but that could change. Still showing at least 2-3 feet over the period. Will have to keep watching as the details will make a big difference between big snow, and crippling snow.

Quick Disclaimer: I have posted this before, but just a reminder that this is an "unofficial" weather blog. I have been a hobby meteorologist and studied meteorology for a couple years in college, but I am not a professional meteorologist. For detailed "official" forecasts please refer to outlets such as the National Weather Service. This blog was created for people in the Tahoe area that love snow. I do tons of research, and I try to break down the technical terms and make the weather patterns easier to understand and pinpointed to Tahoe. I also to try to make it entertaining & upbeat as everyone knows when we are in a drought or lacking snow. We are all looking for next big dump of powder. Negative comments will not be posted as they are not necessary and defeat the purpose of this blog. This blog is for positive people that love Tahoe and love snow, all others please find another blog or start your own.

Thanks for reading, enjoy the snow! BA

32 comments:

Anonymous said...

might be coming out there on the 24th. are storms looking to continue after next week as well? you are the man btw!

BA said...

That is beyond what most models show, and the ones that do some call "fantasy charts". But as far as what is going on in the pattern I see no reason why the storms should stop coming as of now. Should stay active into March.

Paul Damon said...

First of all, thank you for your dedication to providing such in-depth coverage. This is an excellent resource.
Second, I'm coming out to Tahoe on the 19th from NYC and am incredibly excited at the good fortune with this amazing storm system.
If anyone has recommendations for powder day scenarios at Alpine, Squaw and/or Kirkwood they would be much appreciated. No need to give away secrets, just generally where it's good paul.d.damon@gmail.com

Thomas Squeo said...

I monitor your posts like religion, thanks and keep up the great work. Northstar estimates always seem conservative and lacking detail. Thanks for filling in the backstory.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for all the information. I am headed up next week from the 19th to the 23rd and it looks like we will be in for a treat! I do have question about conditions. I am used to smaller mountains with nowhere near the amount of snow that accumulates up in Tahoe. Since, there have been some warm temperatures the weeks preceeding these storms and then we are getting this huge amount of snow on top of that pack. How do the resorts handle avalanche safety? I assume there must be a group of experts monitoring this but my fiance seems to be under the impression that we are going to be doing backcountry riding. I'd like to have something that could calm her concerns. After the big publicity they gave the incident in SLC earlier this season I can sense the apprehension.

Thanks and keep up the great work!

BA said...

Most of the resorts do avalanche control every morning when it snows. They shoot canons and drop dynamite into the snow. Rarely there are avalanches still that take people out but not often. Northstar doesn't have avalanche danger as much because it is covered in trees.

Christopher said...

BA.
I thought I would give you another site to look at; I have been using it for almost 10 years to project storms to come. The short term forecast seams to have some accuracy. With the markings of this storm, it reminds me of 1998-1999 storms in January. I think we may be in for an endless winter .

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec1.html

BA said...

Thanks for the link. I like the one that shows over 600% of normal, that's great. Two of the maps are off the chart. If this pattern works out the way it looks it will be the most snow I have seen since living in Tahoe. We should have an above average snowpack by the end of the month as well, with no end in sight. Gotta love it.

BA said...

Last time we were well above avg. for the season was 98, but we still have a long way to go. we are just at halfway to avg. for snowfall as of today.

CD said...

Hey BA, at the end of January you had your "Weather Pattern Never Seen Before!!! Ever......" post. Do you have any sort of follow up to what you described in that entry? Are the elements for "big continental arctic outbreaks" still coming together? Is that what we're getting right now/ what is forecasted? Your blogging is awesome, thanks for any reply.

Anonymous said...

BA, i was wondering when is the Saturday storm projected to hit. During what part of saturday will most of the snow be falling? early morning, afternoon, evening? I ask because I will be on the slopes on saturday and i dont want the weather to get to a point where i cant even see where i am going.

Thanks!

BA said...

Should be a lull during the day Sat. in between storms. Any snow should be showery. Heavy snow moves in Sat. night.

Anonymous said...

Curious why it shows that your "Wed. P.M. Update...." was "Posted by BA at 6:10 AM"

Think snow!

Anonymous said...

Crazy stuff! Can't wait to shred it up. I'm coming in on Wednesday the 18th at night. How do you see driving conditions from Reno to Northstar? We're from FLA, no practice in the snow. Great blog!!

BA said...

Couldn't tell you driving conditions right now, but Reno gets much less snow than Tahoe.

I sometimes just edit an earlier post, hence the early time.

Scott McGuire said...

Here's a link to NV and CA Road Controls. You can also call 511 once you are in Nevada. Hope that helps...

http://safetravelusa.com/nv/

Enjoy!

Anonymous said...

I asked about saturday afternoon forcast yesterday, and i was wondering if there is any changes on the timing of the saturday storm. Is it still slated to come in saturday night into sunday, or is it going to come in earlier? And does saturday morning/afternoon still look like its still in between storms?

thanks again!

BA said...

Sat. night.

dmourati said...

Northar is reporting 9" at the summit and 5" at mid mountain from last night (2-11-2009) storm.

http://www.northstarattahoe.com/snowreport.asp

BA said...

They are just adding 2" to yesterday's 7". I live at the bottom of the mtn. and i got 1" at my house. but you can go up there and see for yourself if you want.

dmourati said...

Hmm, sneaky. That storm last night did look pretty fast to drop that much snow. Thanks.

BA said...

No problem. I like to keep it real. N* is one of the most accurate resorts but they add wrong once in a while, then they correct it later. There are resorts here in Tahoe though that use short rulers.

dmourati said...

Here's another resource I'm sure you've seen, but your readers may not have:

http://www.snowforecast.com/NorthstaratTahoe

Anonymous said...

Do you have any information on how hwy 80 rd conditions will be Friday or Sunday? Planning on driving up Friday and home Sunday. When will be the best times to drive on these days? I'm hoping not to get stuck for the night on the rd. Thanks.

Colin said...

"If this pattern works out the way it looks it will be the most snow I have seen since living in Tahoe."

"Last time we were well above avg. for the season was 98, but we still have a long way to go. we are just at halfway to avg. for snowfall as of today."

BA, how long have you lived in Tahoe/Truckee? 04-05 and 05-06 were both "well above average" and much more recent than 1998. Cool blog.

BA said...

I would say the later you leave on friday the less it will snow. Should be heaviest during the day.

Sunday will not be a good day to travel. 80 could be shut down quite a bit Sun-Tues. This storm should easily dump over 2 ft. on Donner Summit.

BA said...

Hey Colin,

Yes I have a poster size bar graph in my office of the snowfall for the past 100 years. 04/05 & 05/06 were above average but not compared to 98. I have only live in Tahoe 3 years. I was a hobbyist meteorologist on the East coast for 20 years before then.

I actually have a 40 hour a week job as an accountant and just write this blog for fun since I love weather and study it obsessively. It was just the people in my office reading it 2 years ago but it has exploded by word of mouth and Northstar picked it up this season. Now it can be just as much work as fun with thousands of daily readers expecting an update. haha.

Glad you like.

Anonymous said...

I read your blog obsessively, and am always anxious for more. I imagine with the following your getting now, there's a little pressure to get it out. THANKS. Myself and everyone I've turned on to your blog are appreciative.

Anonymous said...

Just wanted to say thank you for all the work you put in!

Anonymous said...

I love reading this blog and do so everyday. National Weather Service got nothin on you bud...keep up the good work.

Duane said...

Great blog. I also use weather underground but don't understand all of the technical terminology. Could you include some insight on your updates as it pertains to our upcoming weather. Thanks for your effort.

sean said...

hey i love your blog. If you are a little off that's okay, you are always hoping for the best and that rocks.