Saturday, February 14, 2009

Sat. A.M. Update......Updated..

Main low was much better organized than the last storm. It pumped snow across Tahoe all night and it is still dumping as of 7 a.m. As of 6 a.m. Northstar was reporting 17" of snow in the past 24 hours, & it has been snowing all morning. Along the crest areas reporting 2 feet in the past 24 hours. This is Rocky Mtn. style powder, cold and dry.

Next storms is spinning just off the coast. It has slowed down a lot. It should sit off the coast and spin in some snow showers today thru Sunday. Accumulations should be light today & tonight with about 1-3 inches for both. During the day Sunday the snowshowers may be a little more frequent with 3-6 inches of snow. Heavier snow moves in for Sunday night & Monday as the heavier moisture band finally moves South over Tahoe. Latest models have the snow lasting as long as Wednesday morning before tapering off, but the heaviest snow would fall Monday & Tuesday. NWS has a winter storm watch for 1 foot at lake level & 2 feet above 7000 ft. just on Sunday night into Monday. Latest models show 2-2.5 inches of liquid by Wed. morning. Snow ratios should go down during the day to around 10:1 and then back up at night to 20:1. So average would be 15:1. That would be around 2 feet at lake level and 4 ft. on top of the mtn. by the time the storm stops.

Next storm is just off the coast by Wednesday. Remember the talk about the warming of the stratosphere (SSW) that I talked about a couple weeks ago. It was going to cause continental arctic outbreaks in the troposhere. Well one of those outbreaks will be a big trough that will be carved out over the Eastern U.S. If you have been reading along this winter you know that troughs in the East slow down the progression of storms into the West Coast. Good news is that there won't be a ridge off the West Coast, it will stay over Hawaii. The big storm will stall off our coast Wed.-Fri. and then when the trough finally kicks out of the East by next weekend the storm will be able to come onshore. So we will get a little brake for about 2-3 days and then the big storms start up again by next weekend.

According to Ed Berry's latest discussion, he believes the ridge will hold over Hawaii for at least the next couple weeks and possibly into spring. This should leave the storm door open for a while. In the mean time we need to keep an eye on this big storm this weekend, stay tuned.....BA


Millicent Meng said...

Fabulous! Thanks for all the thoughtful updates!

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the updates. I really enjoy reading your blog on a regular basis... wish I could be there! It's amazing that things don't come to a stand-still like they do on the Southeast of USA.