Sunday, February 8, 2009

Three Storms, Three Feet........and Beyond.........

Active pattern has begun. A storm will move thru quickly tonight bringing cold air and a quick shot of heavy snow. The way the Front is coming in, N-S oriented instead of W-E, and it's speed, will limit the amount of snow that can fall overnight. The storm also doesn't have all that much moisture to work with. The cold front will be quite strong though, so heavy snow should break out along the cold front. Latest models show about 4-8 inches of snow falling in a short period of about 6 hours as the front comes thru. The cold air behind the front should keep snow showers going into Monday. Always hard to tell how much additional snow will fall with post-frontal showers, but a few more inches are possible. Total storm accumulations should be 6-12 inches. An additional piece of energy may come thru Monday night and spark off a few more snow showers with light accumulations.

After a quick break on Tuesday another storm should move in Tuesday night. This storm is moving much slower. Snow could fall into Thursday as the low slowly moves through NorCal. Models showing over an inch of liquid over the two days so over a foot could fall.

Another storm follows quickly on Friday into Saturday. This storm is also slower moving and could have snow showers lasting into Sunday. Models also show over an inch of liquid with this storm which would be over another foot.

The storms this week won't be overly moist because they are coming down from the North over the ridge out at 140w and aren't getting great over water trajectory and jet support that would give them lots of moisture. Still, over the next 7 days with the several storms models show 2-2.5 inches of liquid which would be 2-3 feet of snow. Just to our North and South amounts could be a couple feet more. Will have to continue to monitor the speed of these storms and their exact track as it could change the snow amounts expected.

After reading Ed Berry's discussion and looking at some longer range models, I feel more confident about bigger storms starting President's weekend. Blocking over the North Atlantic still looks to move back over Canada. Meanwhile the ridge out over the ocean should continue to move back towards the Central Pacific closer to 160w in time, and possibly stay there for a while! Also, tropical activity out between 130-140E is very active. These factors combined will connect a stream of moisture coming all the way from the Indian Ocean that will be feeding the Pacific Jet-Stream and strengthening storms. With the ridge out over the Central Pacific, storms will have a longer path over water and better jet support and the blocking backing up from Canada will add to the jet aiming right at CA.

All that means that much bigger storms will start affecting us starting around President's Day. Models currently show quite a BIG storm hitting on President's Day. This storm could produce multiple feet of snow just itself. Could this be the President's Day Blizzard of 09'?

There is no end in sight to the stormy weather. After looking at long range European model, some forecasters suggest normal-above normal precip thru April! This is good news for the drought conditions. Stay tuned, this is getting exciting! BA


Anonymous said...

Thanks for filling our stoke!

Anonymous said...

Thanks for finally giving the powder hounds some accurate weather info to take to bed. sweet!