Saturday, February 28, 2009

Storm Update Sunday 8 P.M.

Snow levels have dropped below 6500 ft. It is snowing in the village at 6300' with a couple inches of accumulation already. As another wave rotates in off the main low for Monday the snow levels will drop even further. Heavy snow will fall into Monday night. 2+ feet possible on the mtn. with 3+ ft. on the crest, and up to a foot in town.

Snow showers should continue into Tuesday as the main low drifts South down the coast. Some heavier waves will rotate thru the area, especially Tuesday night. Snow should continue into Wed. before tapering off in the afternoon. Snow levels will be around 5000 ft., which will up the snow ratios over Tahoe. This storm could dump an additional 2+ feet. with another 3+ on the crest. Snow totals by Wed. night look to be around 4-5 ft. on Northstar above 7000 ft. Amounts are a little trickier below depending on the how fast the snow levels drop initially on monday, but a couple feet are possible in town, & 6-8 ft. total along the Western Crest.

Biggest change in the forecast is for the end of the week. The models are back & forth on what will happen with the main low off the coast and a storm sliding down the coast from Canada. Still a chance at some cold snow accumulation Fri/Sat. from the storm coming down the coast, but confidence in details is not high right now.

A much needed break may be in store for a few days starting next weekend, before more storms take aim by the end of the following week. BA

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

hey man, these updates are awesome. Im heading out to Tahoe on the 17th through the 21st. I know thats a long ways out, but you have any feel on what the odds are of us getting some good snow that week?
Thanks man - love the site

Anonymous said...

How does your forecast modeling differ from the National Weather Service or other weather web sites like weather.com or accuweather? Thanks.

BA said...

yeah, that is too far out to say, but storminess should persist thru the month.

Everyone uses the same models. The difference is the weather.com & accuweather forecasts are computer generated and are usually wrong & change every model run. NWS actually looks at models & a person writes the forecast.

snowshoe said...

Like your Blog a lot forecast in "English" vs NWS, but today your forecast is quite a bit more optimistic than the NWS for snow. It will be interesting to see who is more correct you or NWS. I hope you are since you are showing much more snow then them. In their defense I agree, the weather is all over the place as are the NAM and GFS.

BA said...

From the NWS this morning for Tahoe:

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 15 TO 30 INCHES AT LAKE LEVEL BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY FALLING TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. 2 TO 4 FEET OF SNOW WILL FALL ABOVE 7000 FEET WITH UP
TO 6 FEET ABOVE 8000 FEET NEAR THE SIERRA CREST.

That is on top of the 16" that already fell.