Friday, February 13, 2009

Friday P.M. Update....

Main low coming in off the ocean is not falling apart like the last one. Quite a bit of snowshowers have formed and are currently stacking up against the crest but have yet to spill over. Models showing a decent amount of moisture, .25-.5 inches of liquid with a high snow ratios of 20:1 that is another 5-10 inches of snow. I was up riding on N* today and there was about 6" on top so a foot+ seems reasonable as a storm total. 10-15" should fall up on the crest overnight.

Next storm should have snow arriving Sat. night. The storm looks to slow down so the heaviest snow may not arrive until Sun. night/Mon. As the storm slows off the coast, instead of the moisture streaming in out of the Southwest, models have it tilting and the stream turning out of the South on Sunday so lighter snow will fall, and then the winds will go SW on Monday which will increase snowfall rates. This would also make it harder for the precip to be forced over the crest. Storm will last into Tuesday, & by then models have 1.25-2 inches of liquid over Tahoe we would be looking at 2-3 feet.

Models coming back around to a snowy pattern for the rest of the week, although the details aren't competely clear. Snowfall, heavy at times, could last into the following weekend with feet of accumulation. Ed Berry's latest dicussion talks about the pattern lasting at least the next 2 weeks, if not thru the spring. Latest GFS model showing no let up in the train of storms thru the end of the month and into the beginning of March. Stay tuned. BA

Pattern still looks to remain stormy thru the end of the month. BA


Anonymous said...

I see the problem in the new 12z gfs. There is a pretty stuborn high pressure parked over utah that prevents the storm form tracking closer to the coast.

Anonymous said...

Love your blog. I want to start understanding more about the models you talk about. What sites have this info?
-Rookie weather watcher

BA said...

you could google it, there are some free places like the navy website. I have a professional account with which is very user friendly with all the models.