For all the people I see walking around town in sandals & short sleeves in 40 degree weather, you will like this forecast. For the rest of us who wait for temps above 60 before we break out the shorts & hit the beach, it may be a little while yet.
It will remain sunny & cool thru Thursday in the 40's on the mtn. 4th storm to slam the Pac NW in the past week will arrive Thursday. This time the ridge will be a little further West so the storm should be able to slide down further West bringing us a possible light accumulation as the front moves thru Thursday night into Friday. Temps will be cold on Friday behind the front, possibly not breaking freezing over a good portion of the mtn.
Sunny weekend but temps will be slow to warm Sat. then warmer Sunday possibly breaking 50 on the mtn. The ridge will be shifting Westward across the Pacific over the weekend opening the storm door.
Monday a cold storm arrives out of the Gulf of Alaska. Not sure yet how strong the storm is going to be. Models are mixed on how much moisture the storm will gather as well as if it will split a little sending the heaviest snow just to our South. Either way we should be in for some fresh fluffy powder & some cold temps to start the week.
Storm door will remain open thru the week. Looks like a break the middle of next week before the possibility of another cold storm with cold air diving down from the North towards the end of the week.
Storm potential continues into the second week of April. I see the possibility of a storm the middle-end of the week of the 13th. Way too far out to get excited about. I'm getting married outside on the 18th so if it doesn't hit by the 16th hate to say I'm not rooting for it to happen for once. BA
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Monday, March 30, 2009
Cool & Sunny, We're Not Done Yet.....
Another cold day today with temps struggling to hit 40 on the mtn. Ridge is still sitting in the same place over the Eastern Pacific so a couple more storms will be kept to our North this week. One coming into Washington on Tuesday & another Thursday. The ridge may move West slightly for the Thursday storm allowing it to slide down further West clipping us with a brief snow shower. Temps will bump back into the 40's Tues.- Thurs. on the mtn, 50's in town. Then it will get cold again Friday with highs only in the 30's, maybe not breaking 40 even in town.
Still watching for the ridge to begin to shift West in the Pacific starting next weekend. Temps would warm to near 50 on the mtn. as warm air gets drawn up ahead of an approaching storm for Monday the 6th. This will be a cold storm with low snow levels. Not all that clear at this point how strong the storm will be, it may be a decent shot of snow with the cold front followed by some weaker waves of moisture for a couple of days. The weather looks to possibly stay cold & active into the 2nd week of April. Stay tuned......BA
Still watching for the ridge to begin to shift West in the Pacific starting next weekend. Temps would warm to near 50 on the mtn. as warm air gets drawn up ahead of an approaching storm for Monday the 6th. This will be a cold storm with low snow levels. Not all that clear at this point how strong the storm will be, it may be a decent shot of snow with the cold front followed by some weaker waves of moisture for a couple of days. The weather looks to possibly stay cold & active into the 2nd week of April. Stay tuned......BA
Saturday, March 28, 2009
Don't Be Fooled.....
Beautiful day today with temps in the low to mid 50's on the mtn. Could break 60 downtown Truckee. It will be short lived though as tomorrow another storm slides inside of us bringing a cold front. Hope you brought a coat if you're up for the weekend because tomorrow will be much colder with highs only in the 30's on the mtn.
It will be sunny next week but temps will stay in the 40's on the mtn. & upper 40's to low 50's in town. With another storm sliding down inside of us over Nevada & Utah on Wed. This pattern of storms hitting the Pac NW then coming down inside of us will keep us cool & prevent any big warm-ups as the ridge stays out over the Pacific, but is just close enough to keep us dry.
Still watching for the ridge to begin to shift West in the Pacific starting next weekend. Models have been in agreement & fairly consistent the past few days with a warm up next weekend ahead of a possible cold & decent size storm for Monday the 6th. This could be followed by active weather thru the week & temps staying cool. Wouldn't mind finishing off the season with a couple powder days since we didn't start with them. BA
It will be sunny next week but temps will stay in the 40's on the mtn. & upper 40's to low 50's in town. With another storm sliding down inside of us over Nevada & Utah on Wed. This pattern of storms hitting the Pac NW then coming down inside of us will keep us cool & prevent any big warm-ups as the ridge stays out over the Pacific, but is just close enough to keep us dry.
Still watching for the ridge to begin to shift West in the Pacific starting next weekend. Models have been in agreement & fairly consistent the past few days with a warm up next weekend ahead of a possible cold & decent size storm for Monday the 6th. This could be followed by active weather thru the week & temps staying cool. Wouldn't mind finishing off the season with a couple powder days since we didn't start with them. BA
Friday, March 27, 2009
Stuck in the Middle.....
Nice weather today & tomorrow with temps near 50 on the mtn. today & in the 50's tomorrow. Temps in town could hit 60 tomorrow.
Sunday another storm slides inside of us bringing a cold front. Temps on Sun. will be much colder with highs only in the 30's on the mtn.
It will be sunny next week but temps will stay in the 40's on the mtn. & upper 40's to low 50's in town. With another storm sliding down inside of us over Nevada & Utah on Wed. This pattern of storms hitting the Pac NW then coming down inside of us will keep us cool & prevent any big warm-ups as the ridge stays out over the Pacific, but is just close enough to keep us dry.
Still watching for the ridge to begin to shift West in the Pacific starting next weekend. This would allow storms to dig further South & hit CA. Could get a couple storms the week of the 5th, stay tuned......BA
Sunday another storm slides inside of us bringing a cold front. Temps on Sun. will be much colder with highs only in the 30's on the mtn.
It will be sunny next week but temps will stay in the 40's on the mtn. & upper 40's to low 50's in town. With another storm sliding down inside of us over Nevada & Utah on Wed. This pattern of storms hitting the Pac NW then coming down inside of us will keep us cool & prevent any big warm-ups as the ridge stays out over the Pacific, but is just close enough to keep us dry.
Still watching for the ridge to begin to shift West in the Pacific starting next weekend. This would allow storms to dig further South & hit CA. Could get a couple storms the week of the 5th, stay tuned......BA
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Cold Weeks, Nice Weekends, One More Storm Cycle?
With the ridge to our West bumping the storms to our North Washington State got dumped on with several feet of snow the past 2 days. That storm will slide down over Nevada & Utah bring some colder temps for tomorrow. May not get out of the 30's on the mtn. Could see a flurry as the cold front goes thru tonight.
Temps will warm Fri.-Sat. hitting the 50's Saturday. Another inside slider Sunday with a strong cold front will cool temps again into the 40's for most of next week. A 3rd storm sliding down to our East Wed. will keep the temps cold before they start to warm into the weekend ahead of the next storm.
The ridge looks to possibly move back towards the Central Pacific allowing cold storm activity to return the week of the 5th. Could be one last decent storm cycle before everyone packs up shop. BA
Temps will warm Fri.-Sat. hitting the 50's Saturday. Another inside slider Sunday with a strong cold front will cool temps again into the 40's for most of next week. A 3rd storm sliding down to our East Wed. will keep the temps cold before they start to warm into the weekend ahead of the next storm.
The ridge looks to possibly move back towards the Central Pacific allowing cold storm activity to return the week of the 5th. Could be one last decent storm cycle before everyone packs up shop. BA
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
Cold Shots & Sun...
Ridge is pretty much anchored for the time being out in the Pacific around 140w. This location will keep storm to our North but allow several to drop just to our East bringing shots of colder air.
Colder air will stay with us two more days as a storm slides down inside of us on Thursday. Temps will be in the 30’s on the mtn. & the 40’s in town. Temps will begin to warm about 10 degrees Friday & Saturday as the ridge edges a little closer bringing some warmer air. Another inside slider Sunday will cool temps again into the 40's for most of next week.
Looking more likely that the storm for the first of April will be yet another inside slider bringing additional cold air the second half of next week. The ridge looks to possibly move back towards the Central Pacific allowing cold storm activity to return the week of the 5th. BA
Colder air will stay with us two more days as a storm slides down inside of us on Thursday. Temps will be in the 30’s on the mtn. & the 40’s in town. Temps will begin to warm about 10 degrees Friday & Saturday as the ridge edges a little closer bringing some warmer air. Another inside slider Sunday will cool temps again into the 40's for most of next week.
Looking more likely that the storm for the first of April will be yet another inside slider bringing additional cold air the second half of next week. The ridge looks to possibly move back towards the Central Pacific allowing cold storm activity to return the week of the 5th. BA
Monday, March 23, 2009
Could Use a Few More of Those......
Northstar ended up with just over 20” on top. Along the crest amounts ranged from 2 - 3 ft. Not a bad little storm for the end of March, it was cold & powdery as well. Downtown got shadowed quite a bit from the crest so amounts were closer to 6 – 8 inches. We are only about one storm away from hitting 400” at Northstar & only about 10” off average in the crest! We are officially ahead of the season totals of the past 2 years. 3 years ago had a huge April that put the crest over 600”.
It will be sunny thru the weekend as we begin the week between the ridge out in the Pacific & the trough over the Rockies. This will keep the winds out of the North, & will keep cold air nearby. We may even see a snow shower Wed. night as a storm slides down inside of us. Temps will stay in the 30’s this week on the mtn. & the 40’s in town. Temps will begin to warm about 10 degrees Friday into the weekend as the ridge edges a little closer bringing some warmer air.
Models still back & forth on exactly where a storm goes the middle of next week. Some models want to bring the storm inside of us over Nevada with just some cooler air, & others try to dig a storm off the coast & bring us another cold storm. Storm activity & patterns in the Western Pacific suggest the latter. There is the chance that a trough could form the first two weeks of April bringing cold & snow. We will have to watch that closely. Meanwhile, enjoy the fresh snow & nice weather for the next week. Plenty of snow out there.
Lots of comments coming in about how the snow totals are calculated at the resorts & why there is a difference in the amounts. There is an official way to measure snow, & you can’t be sure all the resorts are able to follow it to a T. You have to allow some room for error. I like to take several locations in the same area & average them. I know that Northstar measures accurately because I have had their technique shared with me & have shared with them my knowledge of accurate snow calculating. Also, Squaw Valley gets their totals from a National Weather Service station on top of the resort, so that would be pretty accurate & is used for totals by the NWS.
Also, there are questions about Northstar getting slightly less snow. Northstar, unlike the ridge of mountains to it’s West, is a volcano formed a very long time ago that sits in the valley between two sets of mountains. Northstar is the reason Lake Tahoe could not drain into Truckee when the glacier that formed it melted. Truckee is actually a few hundred feet lower than the shore of Lake Tahoe. Storms rolling in off the Pacific hit the Sierra & that squeezes the clouds causing them to cool which makes them less able to hold moisture the higher they go. Once they clear the crest they are able to expand & warm which allows them to once again hold more moisture. This will cause quite a bit less precip to fall just to the East of the crest as compared to the West side. This happens everytime the clouds are forced higher as they travel across the mtns.
Northstar is just East of the crest, so the clouds begin to warm & release less snow just before being forced up again by the mtn. & releasing more on top of Northstar. This will cause slightly less snow to fall. If a storm is stronger or coming in from an angle & not straight at the crest, snowfall totals will be pretty close to the crest. Areas like Martis Valley that are flat & just East of the crest will get only a few inches like this past storm, where Northstar will get 2 ft. & the crest close to 3 ft. Good thing about Northstar is that because it has so many trees the snow doesn’t melt as fast as mountains to it’s West. Also the drier clouds will produce slightly drier & fluffier snow than on the crest. Hope that helps, tried to keep it simple. BA
It will be sunny thru the weekend as we begin the week between the ridge out in the Pacific & the trough over the Rockies. This will keep the winds out of the North, & will keep cold air nearby. We may even see a snow shower Wed. night as a storm slides down inside of us. Temps will stay in the 30’s this week on the mtn. & the 40’s in town. Temps will begin to warm about 10 degrees Friday into the weekend as the ridge edges a little closer bringing some warmer air.
Models still back & forth on exactly where a storm goes the middle of next week. Some models want to bring the storm inside of us over Nevada with just some cooler air, & others try to dig a storm off the coast & bring us another cold storm. Storm activity & patterns in the Western Pacific suggest the latter. There is the chance that a trough could form the first two weeks of April bringing cold & snow. We will have to watch that closely. Meanwhile, enjoy the fresh snow & nice weather for the next week. Plenty of snow out there.
Lots of comments coming in about how the snow totals are calculated at the resorts & why there is a difference in the amounts. There is an official way to measure snow, & you can’t be sure all the resorts are able to follow it to a T. You have to allow some room for error. I like to take several locations in the same area & average them. I know that Northstar measures accurately because I have had their technique shared with me & have shared with them my knowledge of accurate snow calculating. Also, Squaw Valley gets their totals from a National Weather Service station on top of the resort, so that would be pretty accurate & is used for totals by the NWS.
Also, there are questions about Northstar getting slightly less snow. Northstar, unlike the ridge of mountains to it’s West, is a volcano formed a very long time ago that sits in the valley between two sets of mountains. Northstar is the reason Lake Tahoe could not drain into Truckee when the glacier that formed it melted. Truckee is actually a few hundred feet lower than the shore of Lake Tahoe. Storms rolling in off the Pacific hit the Sierra & that squeezes the clouds causing them to cool which makes them less able to hold moisture the higher they go. Once they clear the crest they are able to expand & warm which allows them to once again hold more moisture. This will cause quite a bit less precip to fall just to the East of the crest as compared to the West side. This happens everytime the clouds are forced higher as they travel across the mtns.
Northstar is just East of the crest, so the clouds begin to warm & release less snow just before being forced up again by the mtn. & releasing more on top of Northstar. This will cause slightly less snow to fall. If a storm is stronger or coming in from an angle & not straight at the crest, snowfall totals will be pretty close to the crest. Areas like Martis Valley that are flat & just East of the crest will get only a few inches like this past storm, where Northstar will get 2 ft. & the crest close to 3 ft. Good thing about Northstar is that because it has so many trees the snow doesn’t melt as fast as mountains to it’s West. Also the drier clouds will produce slightly drier & fluffier snow than on the crest. Hope that helps, tried to keep it simple. BA
Sunday, March 22, 2009
It Looks Like Winter Again....
Snow showers will continue thru the day. Northstar had over 13" as of 6 a.m. & the crest was at 18-20". Let's see where we're at tomorrow morning.
Inside slider to keep temps cool thru the end of the week, with possibly some snow showers on Thursday. Warmer temps next weekend. More on the long term tomorrow. BA
Inside slider to keep temps cool thru the end of the week, with possibly some snow showers on Thursday. Warmer temps next weekend. More on the long term tomorrow. BA
Saturday, March 21, 2009
Jan. Dumperoo in March!!
Models this morning have the storm slowing & coming in a bit further North! Both of those factors will increase the snow totals. This is going to be a cold storm so tomorrow will most likely be in the top 5 powder days this season!
Snow showers should arrive this evening with snow levels at lake level, before crashing way down to 3000 ft. Heaviest snow arrives after midnight with the main cold front. Snow showers continue most of Sunday with the slowing down of the storm. Total liquid on the latest models is 1 - 1.25" with snow ratios 20:1 on top of the mtn. with temps around 20 degrees tonight & tomorrow. That puts totals at a solid 2 ft. on top. A foot in Truckee & 18 inches more West towards Donner Lake. The crest is going to have places hit 3 ft. by the time the storm winds down Sunday night.
I'll update if there are any changes, but the storm is getting close now so not expecting too many. Get out & enjoy, spring will be here soon. BA
Snow showers should arrive this evening with snow levels at lake level, before crashing way down to 3000 ft. Heaviest snow arrives after midnight with the main cold front. Snow showers continue most of Sunday with the slowing down of the storm. Total liquid on the latest models is 1 - 1.25" with snow ratios 20:1 on top of the mtn. with temps around 20 degrees tonight & tomorrow. That puts totals at a solid 2 ft. on top. A foot in Truckee & 18 inches more West towards Donner Lake. The crest is going to have places hit 3 ft. by the time the storm winds down Sunday night.
I'll update if there are any changes, but the storm is getting close now so not expecting too many. Get out & enjoy, spring will be here soon. BA
Friday, March 20, 2009
First or Last Day of Spring.....
One more mild day today, then a storm prepares to move in on Saturday. Temps will be cooler tomorrow just with the clouds & wind. Snow showers could begin during the day, but main moisture looks to move in Sat. night. Latest models show a couple waves of moisture with snow possibly not winding down until Sunday night. Heaviest snow should be late Sat. night into early Sun. morning as the cold front & main jet pushes thru. Snow levels starting around 7000 ft. on Sat. but crahsing below valley floors by the time the heavy snow starts. 6-12 inches possible in town with 1-2 ft. on top of Northstar. Snow amounts should be higher heading South down the Sierra as the heaviest snow looks to hit around Mono County.
The ridge rebuilds offshore, but temps will be slow to warm with highs only in the 30's on the mtn. Monday & Tuesday with sun returning. Temps continue to warm thru midweek, possibly the end of the week. Models still holding onto the idea of an inside slider storm for Thurs. which would bring snow & some colder air into Friday. If it slides just East of us it would be two days of warming heading into a nice weekend.
A flat ridge looks to sit out around 130-140w in the Pacific which would keep storm activity to our North next weekend into the following week. Still watching the potential of storm activity returning the first week of April. Definitely get out & enjoy the powder this weekend though. BA
The ridge rebuilds offshore, but temps will be slow to warm with highs only in the 30's on the mtn. Monday & Tuesday with sun returning. Temps continue to warm thru midweek, possibly the end of the week. Models still holding onto the idea of an inside slider storm for Thurs. which would bring snow & some colder air into Friday. If it slides just East of us it would be two days of warming heading into a nice weekend.
A flat ridge looks to sit out around 130-140w in the Pacific which would keep storm activity to our North next weekend into the following week. Still watching the potential of storm activity returning the first week of April. Definitely get out & enjoy the powder this weekend though. BA
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Snows Everytime I Leave...
Sorry for the delay, I flew to the East coast today & of course I'm on the East coast this weekend because it's going to snow. It tends to snow every time I go out of town, so I think this storm will hold for this weekend. No change to the forecast from yesterday. Models holding which is a sign they are going to be accurate. A foot on the Mtn. up towards 2 as you head South towards Mammoth. Will do a nice long post in the morning. BA
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
The Season of Sprinter......
My chiropractor Dr. Schroeder informed me of the new season of "Sprinter" that we are in right now. I think that describes well the weather we will see this week.
A false spring will be in affect thru Friday with temps in the 50's & sunny. Downtown Truckee will get close to 60.
Retrogression of the ridge by Saturday will allow a storm to drop down out of the Gulf of Alaska and dig off the coast. This path will allow it to get some decent moisture before coming onshore over Central CA, with snow starting late Saturday or Saturday night. Model trends have been for more moisture, but a slight splitting of the storm which would bring the heaviest snow South of Lake Tahoe. Still, as of now we are currently looking for over a foot on the mountains in North Lake with not much shadowing from the crest. South Lake near Sierra at Tahoe looks to get close to 1 1/2 ft., & over 2 ft. further South towards Mammoth. Will have to watch the models the next few days to see who will end up getting the direct hit with the most snow.
After a few warm days this week the cold coming with this storm will put us back to reality. Temps on Saturday will be in the 30's on the mtn & then the mid 20's for Sunday with snow falling. Snow levels will start around lake level Saturday before falling down below 4000 ft., so snow for everyone. This will up snow ratios as well so look for powdery snow on Sunday. Snow winds down Sunday night, with the ridge rebuilding offshore, but temps will be slow to warm with highs only in the 30's on the mtn. Monday & Tuesday with sun returning.
Temps continue to warm thru next week back to normal levels for this time of year. The ridge looks to keep storm activity to our North thru the end of the week. Still looking at the possibility of the ridge shifting back towards the Central Pacific towards the end of the month with another storm cycle possibly setting up going into the first week of April.
Looking towards next season there seems to be some disagreement in the research of the global patterns taking shape. The top two long-range global forecasters that I follow seem to see similar things but disagree on their affects. One thinks we are headed towards a mild El Nino meaning less ridge & more storms for CA next winter, while the other thinks we may be locked into La Nina a bit longer which would mean another cold but on the fence as far as precip winter. Check back throughout the summer as I will occasionally post as new info comes in. October is normally when the official winter outlooks start coming in. BA
A false spring will be in affect thru Friday with temps in the 50's & sunny. Downtown Truckee will get close to 60.
Retrogression of the ridge by Saturday will allow a storm to drop down out of the Gulf of Alaska and dig off the coast. This path will allow it to get some decent moisture before coming onshore over Central CA, with snow starting late Saturday or Saturday night. Model trends have been for more moisture, but a slight splitting of the storm which would bring the heaviest snow South of Lake Tahoe. Still, as of now we are currently looking for over a foot on the mountains in North Lake with not much shadowing from the crest. South Lake near Sierra at Tahoe looks to get close to 1 1/2 ft., & over 2 ft. further South towards Mammoth. Will have to watch the models the next few days to see who will end up getting the direct hit with the most snow.
After a few warm days this week the cold coming with this storm will put us back to reality. Temps on Saturday will be in the 30's on the mtn & then the mid 20's for Sunday with snow falling. Snow levels will start around lake level Saturday before falling down below 4000 ft., so snow for everyone. This will up snow ratios as well so look for powdery snow on Sunday. Snow winds down Sunday night, with the ridge rebuilding offshore, but temps will be slow to warm with highs only in the 30's on the mtn. Monday & Tuesday with sun returning.
Temps continue to warm thru next week back to normal levels for this time of year. The ridge looks to keep storm activity to our North thru the end of the week. Still looking at the possibility of the ridge shifting back towards the Central Pacific towards the end of the month with another storm cycle possibly setting up going into the first week of April.
Looking towards next season there seems to be some disagreement in the research of the global patterns taking shape. The top two long-range global forecasters that I follow seem to see similar things but disagree on their affects. One thinks we are headed towards a mild El Nino meaning less ridge & more storms for CA next winter, while the other thinks we may be locked into La Nina a bit longer which would mean another cold but on the fence as far as precip winter. Check back throughout the summer as I will occasionally post as new info comes in. October is normally when the official winter outlooks start coming in. BA
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
Happy St. Patrick's Day.....
Got another couple inches yesterday bringing the storm total to 3", the lower end of the 3-6" projection. We were lucky to get anything as the ridge has been trying to keep the storm activity completely North of us. The Cascades picked up 2-4 feet from this storm.
The ridge moves back in today keeping storm activity to our North thru Friday. Temps will be around 50 degrees on the mtn. with lots of sun. Will be a nice week to get out & enjoy all that snowpack.
Ridge looks to reform out near 150w by Saturday, allowing a cold storm to drop in out of the Gulf of Alaska. This storm has the potential to drop decent snow down to lake level.
The ridge will continue to try & re-emerge along the coast following each storm, which is common in La Nina. It has the possibility of being crushed by a storm for the middle of next week, & then again around the end of the month. We could use a few more storms before settling for Spring.
Looking towards next season there seems to be some disagreement in the research of the global patterns taking shape. The top two long-range global forecasters that I follow seem to see similar things but disagree on their affects. One thinks we are headed towards a mild El Nino meaning less ridge & more storms for CA next winter, while the other thinks we may be locked into La Nina a bit longer which would mean another cold but on the fence as far as precip winter. Check back throughout the summer as I will occasionally post as new info comes in. October is normally when the official winter outlooks start coming in. BA
The ridge moves back in today keeping storm activity to our North thru Friday. Temps will be around 50 degrees on the mtn. with lots of sun. Will be a nice week to get out & enjoy all that snowpack.
Ridge looks to reform out near 150w by Saturday, allowing a cold storm to drop in out of the Gulf of Alaska. This storm has the potential to drop decent snow down to lake level.
The ridge will continue to try & re-emerge along the coast following each storm, which is common in La Nina. It has the possibility of being crushed by a storm for the middle of next week, & then again around the end of the month. We could use a few more storms before settling for Spring.
Looking towards next season there seems to be some disagreement in the research of the global patterns taking shape. The top two long-range global forecasters that I follow seem to see similar things but disagree on their affects. One thinks we are headed towards a mild El Nino meaning less ridge & more storms for CA next winter, while the other thinks we may be locked into La Nina a bit longer which would mean another cold but on the fence as far as precip winter. Check back throughout the summer as I will occasionally post as new info comes in. October is normally when the official winter outlooks start coming in. BA
Monday, March 16, 2009
Winter to End Like Spring, Spring to Start Like Winter?
Cold front is pretty much stalled over Northern CA this morning. It will slowly drift South & weaken as on more wave of moisture comes in. This will bring the steadiest precip during the day today & then ending tonight. Snow levels will hover around 7000 ft., beginning to lower this evening as the precip start to wind down. Northstar got an inch of snow overnight & areas along the crest got around 2-4". Another 2-4" is expected by tonight above 7k, 3-6" on the crest.
Starting Tuesday the ridge quickly shifts back North & East & pushes the storm track back to our North. It will be sunny & warm with temps in the upper 40's to low 50's on the mtn. Plenty of snowpack out there to enjoy in the nice weather.
Ridge looks to reform out in the perfect spot near 150w by next weekend & models are consistent with a cold storm dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska. This storm has the potential to drop decent snow down to lake level. Models also continuing to be consistent on another cold storm around the 25th, & possibly again to end March/Start April. As long as the ridge reforms & holds back out in the Central Pacific like it looks right now, we have the shot at some nice cold storms for a couple of weeks starting this upcoming weekend. BA
Starting Tuesday the ridge quickly shifts back North & East & pushes the storm track back to our North. It will be sunny & warm with temps in the upper 40's to low 50's on the mtn. Plenty of snowpack out there to enjoy in the nice weather.
Ridge looks to reform out in the perfect spot near 150w by next weekend & models are consistent with a cold storm dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska. This storm has the potential to drop decent snow down to lake level. Models also continuing to be consistent on another cold storm around the 25th, & possibly again to end March/Start April. As long as the ridge reforms & holds back out in the Central Pacific like it looks right now, we have the shot at some nice cold storms for a couple of weeks starting this upcoming weekend. BA
Sunday, March 15, 2009
Looking Cold & Stormy to Finish the Month!
Extremely light snow showers moved in this morning. Looking at the satellite the jetstream looks to have shifted North, this will limit much snowfall today. Should be cloudy with continued light snow showers or flurries, with not much accumulation. Snow levels are currently around 6000 ft. As more favorable Southerly winds develop tonight into Mon. along with a second wave of moisture arriving, the snow should pick-up in intensity & snow levels should raise slightly to between 6500-7000 ft., basically snowing from the base lodge up on Northstar. The cold front will never really push thru, so snow levels will never crash down but should come down to lake level by Monday evening, & the snow ratios will stay low giving us some thick snow. Snow could last into Tuesday morning before ending.
Total liquid on the latest GFS is still .25-.5" over North Lake with about 1" on the crest. The NAM still shows up to 1.5" over North Lake with up to 2" on the crest, the fact that it is consistent would leave the chance that the next storm tomorrow could be slightly wetter than it looks now. Definitely a sharp cut-off from North to South, so a slight shift can greatly affect snowfall totals. If the latest model run holds that is around 3-6 inches above 7000 ft. by Tuesday morning,with up to foot on & just West of the crest.
Starting Tuesday the ridge quickly shifts back North & East & pushes the storm track just to our North. The Pac NW & into far Northern CA will continue to get storms thru next week. We will be stuck in the sun with temps in the 40's on the mtn., 50's in town, possibly a bit warmer.
As the cut-off storm over Hawaii finally gets pulled Northward by storms to it's North, the ridge will be able to retrograde Westward towards the end of the week. This could lead to some storms for next weekend. Today's models continue to show a chance at some decent snow for next weekend into early the following week with cold storms dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska.
Chance of some more decent cold storms could last into the first week of April. Looking like March has the chance to go out as stormy as it came in, just have to get past this upcoming week of warm sunny weather. BA
Total liquid on the latest GFS is still .25-.5" over North Lake with about 1" on the crest. The NAM still shows up to 1.5" over North Lake with up to 2" on the crest, the fact that it is consistent would leave the chance that the next storm tomorrow could be slightly wetter than it looks now. Definitely a sharp cut-off from North to South, so a slight shift can greatly affect snowfall totals. If the latest model run holds that is around 3-6 inches above 7000 ft. by Tuesday morning,with up to foot on & just West of the crest.
Starting Tuesday the ridge quickly shifts back North & East & pushes the storm track just to our North. The Pac NW & into far Northern CA will continue to get storms thru next week. We will be stuck in the sun with temps in the 40's on the mtn., 50's in town, possibly a bit warmer.
As the cut-off storm over Hawaii finally gets pulled Northward by storms to it's North, the ridge will be able to retrograde Westward towards the end of the week. This could lead to some storms for next weekend. Today's models continue to show a chance at some decent snow for next weekend into early the following week with cold storms dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska.
Chance of some more decent cold storms could last into the first week of April. Looking like March has the chance to go out as stormy as it came in, just have to get past this upcoming week of warm sunny weather. BA
Saturday, March 14, 2009
On the Fence, 5 p.m. Update....
A very challenging storm to forecast is approaching the area, & we will be on the fence between no snow to our South & lots of snow to our North. Clouds will increase today as the jetstream on the South side of a big storm hitting the Pac NW begins to dive into Northern CA. It is a battle between the storm to the North & the ridge to the South that the storm is tryin to crush, so if anything it is going to be a windy storm. Because of the battle, models are still trying to pinpoint exactly how far South the jet can push in order to increase precip over our area. Last night & this morning's models showed heavier precip making it in to the North-End of Lake Tahoe. Latest model run backs off slightly.
Light snow showers should move in overnight as moisture gets hung-up on the crest & only light amounts make it into the North Lake area. Snow levels starting out around 6000 ft. As the precip gets squeezed out along the crest & stable air remains over North lake, snow showers should remain light during the day Sunday. Snow levels should stay around 6000-6500 ft. As more favorable Southerly winds develop for Sun. night/Mon., the snow should pick-up in intensity & snow levels should raise slightly to around 6800 ft., basically snowing from the base lodge up on Northstar. The cold front will never really push thru, so snow levels will never crash down but should come down to lake level by Monday night, & the snow ratios will stay low giving us some thick snow. Snow could last into Tuesday morning before ending.
Total liquid on the latest GFS is now just .25-.5" over North Lake with about 1" on the crest. Showing more than earlier just North around Lassen, but slightly less on the crest, & less over North Lake. The NAM shows up to 1.5" over North Lake with up to 2" on the crest, but that is quite aggressive in my opinion. Definitely a sharp cut-off from North to South, so a slight shift can greatly affect snowfall totals. A shift back towards this morning's models would push us back towards 1 foot. If the latest model run holds that is around 3-6 inches above 7000 ft. by Tuesday morning, the bulk falling on Monday. Will have to watch this storm closely because totals could go up or down by a lot with slight shifts with a strong storm to the North & ridge to the South. Definitely much less snow in South Lake.
Starting Tuesday the ridge quickly shifts back North & East & pushes the storm track just to our North. The Pac NW & into far Northern CA will continue to get storms thru next week. We will be stuck in the sun with temps in the 40's on the mtn., 50's in town, possibly a bit warmer.
As the cut-off storm over Hawaii finally gets pulled Northward by storms to it's North, the ridge will be able to retrograde Westward towards the end of the week. This could lead to some storms for next weekend. Today's models continue to show a chance at some decent snow for next weekend into early the following week.
Storm activity could last off & on the last week of the month with the ridge back over the Central Pacific. Storminess for the Pac NW looks to continue into the first half of April, giving the chance for it to occasionally bring storms to Tahoe. BA
Light snow showers should move in overnight as moisture gets hung-up on the crest & only light amounts make it into the North Lake area. Snow levels starting out around 6000 ft. As the precip gets squeezed out along the crest & stable air remains over North lake, snow showers should remain light during the day Sunday. Snow levels should stay around 6000-6500 ft. As more favorable Southerly winds develop for Sun. night/Mon., the snow should pick-up in intensity & snow levels should raise slightly to around 6800 ft., basically snowing from the base lodge up on Northstar. The cold front will never really push thru, so snow levels will never crash down but should come down to lake level by Monday night, & the snow ratios will stay low giving us some thick snow. Snow could last into Tuesday morning before ending.
Total liquid on the latest GFS is now just .25-.5" over North Lake with about 1" on the crest. Showing more than earlier just North around Lassen, but slightly less on the crest, & less over North Lake. The NAM shows up to 1.5" over North Lake with up to 2" on the crest, but that is quite aggressive in my opinion. Definitely a sharp cut-off from North to South, so a slight shift can greatly affect snowfall totals. A shift back towards this morning's models would push us back towards 1 foot. If the latest model run holds that is around 3-6 inches above 7000 ft. by Tuesday morning, the bulk falling on Monday. Will have to watch this storm closely because totals could go up or down by a lot with slight shifts with a strong storm to the North & ridge to the South. Definitely much less snow in South Lake.
Starting Tuesday the ridge quickly shifts back North & East & pushes the storm track just to our North. The Pac NW & into far Northern CA will continue to get storms thru next week. We will be stuck in the sun with temps in the 40's on the mtn., 50's in town, possibly a bit warmer.
As the cut-off storm over Hawaii finally gets pulled Northward by storms to it's North, the ridge will be able to retrograde Westward towards the end of the week. This could lead to some storms for next weekend. Today's models continue to show a chance at some decent snow for next weekend into early the following week.
Storm activity could last off & on the last week of the month with the ridge back over the Central Pacific. Storminess for the Pac NW looks to continue into the first half of April, giving the chance for it to occasionally bring storms to Tahoe. BA
Friday, March 13, 2009
Back in Business.......
Always love when the models change their tune in favor of more instead of less snow!
It now looks as if slight retrogression of the ridge back towards the Central Pacific on Saturday is going to allow storm activity to come far enough South to bring snow to Tahoe Sat. night thru Monday. There will be two waves associated with the storm, one arrives Sat. night & the other on Monday. Since we are on the Southern edge of the storm the crest is going to cause a good deal of shadowing, & North Tahoe including Northstar will get the heaviest precip. Snow should start up on the crest Sat. night & then spread into Tahoe by Sunday. Snow levels will start at Lake level then rise slightly. A stronger piece of the storm arrives Monday & could bring a decent shot of snow. I will focus on snow totals & levels tomorrow, but this should freshen up the slopes once again.
Starting Tuesday the ridge shifts back slightly East & push the storm track just to our North. The Pac NW & into far Northern CA will get hammered with storms thru next week, but they will just miss us. We will be stuck in the sun with temps in the 40's on the mtn., 50's in town.
As the cut-off storm over Hawaii finally gets pulled Northward by storms to it's North, the ridge will be able to retrograde Westward towards the end of the week. This could lead to some storms for next weekend. Today's models are showing a better chance at some decent snow for next weekend into early the following week.
After that it looks like a typical pattern of ridges building in for a few days then retrograding & allowing cold storms to dive in. 1 or 2 good storms already on the table now in the next 10 days, but could be at least one more before the end of the month. Like December, when we are getting close to a change in the seasons the models are not very accurate in the long-term. Will have rely on good old fashioned studying of the global patterns. Right now they suggest that Northern CA still has the chance at some decent precipitation the end of March into April. BA
It now looks as if slight retrogression of the ridge back towards the Central Pacific on Saturday is going to allow storm activity to come far enough South to bring snow to Tahoe Sat. night thru Monday. There will be two waves associated with the storm, one arrives Sat. night & the other on Monday. Since we are on the Southern edge of the storm the crest is going to cause a good deal of shadowing, & North Tahoe including Northstar will get the heaviest precip. Snow should start up on the crest Sat. night & then spread into Tahoe by Sunday. Snow levels will start at Lake level then rise slightly. A stronger piece of the storm arrives Monday & could bring a decent shot of snow. I will focus on snow totals & levels tomorrow, but this should freshen up the slopes once again.
Starting Tuesday the ridge shifts back slightly East & push the storm track just to our North. The Pac NW & into far Northern CA will get hammered with storms thru next week, but they will just miss us. We will be stuck in the sun with temps in the 40's on the mtn., 50's in town.
As the cut-off storm over Hawaii finally gets pulled Northward by storms to it's North, the ridge will be able to retrograde Westward towards the end of the week. This could lead to some storms for next weekend. Today's models are showing a better chance at some decent snow for next weekend into early the following week.
After that it looks like a typical pattern of ridges building in for a few days then retrograding & allowing cold storms to dive in. 1 or 2 good storms already on the table now in the next 10 days, but could be at least one more before the end of the month. Like December, when we are getting close to a change in the seasons the models are not very accurate in the long-term. Will have rely on good old fashioned studying of the global patterns. Right now they suggest that Northern CA still has the chance at some decent precipitation the end of March into April. BA
Thursday, March 12, 2009
A Little Break, But It's Not Over Yet..........
Storm heading across the Pacific is now cut-off from the jetstream & will screw with our chances for snow as it spins out in the Central Pacific for a week. Basically the affect of the storm is that it will bump the ridge to the North, & the ridge will bump the storm track to the North. If this hadn't happened we were on track for a stormy week next week.
Slight retrogression of the ridge & the storm back towards the Central Pacific on Saturday may allow for a storm hitting the Pac NW to come far enough South to bring snow to Tahoe Sat. night. Models in a little bit of disagreement on how far South the storm comes, but it Doesn't look like much if we get any, just some light snow showers.
Starting Monday the cut-off storm & ridge shift back slightly East & push the storm track just to our North. The Pac NW & into far Northern CA will get hammered with storms thru next week, but they will just miss us. We will be stuck in the sun with temps in the 40's on the mtn., 50's in town. That is ok since we have plenty of snow on the ground.
As the cut-off storm over Hawaii finally gets pulled Northward by storms to it's North, the ridge will be able to retrograde Westward towards the end of the week. This could lead to some storms for next weekend.
After that it looks like a typical pattern of ridges building in for a few days then retrograding & allowing cold storms to dive in. I still think we can get 1 or 2 good storms before the end of the month. Like December, when we are getting close to a change in the seasons the models are not very accurate in the long-term. Will have rely on good old fashioned studying of the global patterns. Right now they suggest that Northern CA still has the chance at some decent precipitation the end of March into April. BA
Slight retrogression of the ridge & the storm back towards the Central Pacific on Saturday may allow for a storm hitting the Pac NW to come far enough South to bring snow to Tahoe Sat. night. Models in a little bit of disagreement on how far South the storm comes, but it Doesn't look like much if we get any, just some light snow showers.
Starting Monday the cut-off storm & ridge shift back slightly East & push the storm track just to our North. The Pac NW & into far Northern CA will get hammered with storms thru next week, but they will just miss us. We will be stuck in the sun with temps in the 40's on the mtn., 50's in town. That is ok since we have plenty of snow on the ground.
As the cut-off storm over Hawaii finally gets pulled Northward by storms to it's North, the ridge will be able to retrograde Westward towards the end of the week. This could lead to some storms for next weekend.
After that it looks like a typical pattern of ridges building in for a few days then retrograding & allowing cold storms to dive in. I still think we can get 1 or 2 good storms before the end of the month. Like December, when we are getting close to a change in the seasons the models are not very accurate in the long-term. Will have rely on good old fashioned studying of the global patterns. Right now they suggest that Northern CA still has the chance at some decent precipitation the end of March into April. BA
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Back to Normal......
Another sunny & cool day with lots of snowpack.
A piece of energy that is cut-off from the main flow will slide into CA on Thursday, but it is a very weak piece of energy so it shouldn’t create more than just some clouds & keep cooler temps around. Meanwhile, a storm gets cut-off from the jetstream & spins out in the Central Pacific. This will cause a ridge to form over us with sun & slightly warmer temps near 40 on the mtn. for Fri. & Sat.
Retrogression of the ridge back towards the Central Pacific on Saturday may allow for a storm hitting the Pac NW to come far enough South to bring snow to Tahoe on Sunday. Models in a little bit of disagreement on how far South the storm comes, but it Doesn't look like much if we get any, just some light snow showers.
Meanwhile, the cut-off storm moves backwards slightly & is sitting over Hawaii right where we want the ridge to be sitting, therefore displacing the ridge to the Eastern Pacific & blocking storm activity. A blocking High pressure may form over the North Atlantic similar to the first week of February which digs a big trough into the East & dams up the progression of the flow & holds the ridge in place over the West. Latest models suggesting that the ridge is flat and storm activity will continue to impact the Pac NW. The ridge may get flattened enough by the end of the week to allow a storm to affect the area. Mon.- Wed. would have lots of sun with temps in the 40’s on the mtn. & 50’s in town, before the chance of a storm on Thurs/Fri.
The flip flopping of the long range models this week makes me not want to look much further out than 10 days with any confidence right now. Latest models suggest the ridge re-emerging for the weekend of the 21st, & then retrograding allowing for another storm that week. This pattern looks like the typical La Nina pattern where the cold Ocean loves to put a ridge off the coast, only to occasionaly shift West enough or be crushed by big enough of a storm to allow us to get some snow. In La Nina we are always right in the middle as the Southwest is drier than normal & the NW is wetter than normal.
We have had La Nina type conditions for the past 3 winters which is why CA has been so dry. Good news looking towards next season is that the Pacific looks to start warming this summer & current thinking is for a possible "Mild" El Nino for next season. This would definitely return wetter conditions to the West Coast. BA
A piece of energy that is cut-off from the main flow will slide into CA on Thursday, but it is a very weak piece of energy so it shouldn’t create more than just some clouds & keep cooler temps around. Meanwhile, a storm gets cut-off from the jetstream & spins out in the Central Pacific. This will cause a ridge to form over us with sun & slightly warmer temps near 40 on the mtn. for Fri. & Sat.
Retrogression of the ridge back towards the Central Pacific on Saturday may allow for a storm hitting the Pac NW to come far enough South to bring snow to Tahoe on Sunday. Models in a little bit of disagreement on how far South the storm comes, but it Doesn't look like much if we get any, just some light snow showers.
Meanwhile, the cut-off storm moves backwards slightly & is sitting over Hawaii right where we want the ridge to be sitting, therefore displacing the ridge to the Eastern Pacific & blocking storm activity. A blocking High pressure may form over the North Atlantic similar to the first week of February which digs a big trough into the East & dams up the progression of the flow & holds the ridge in place over the West. Latest models suggesting that the ridge is flat and storm activity will continue to impact the Pac NW. The ridge may get flattened enough by the end of the week to allow a storm to affect the area. Mon.- Wed. would have lots of sun with temps in the 40’s on the mtn. & 50’s in town, before the chance of a storm on Thurs/Fri.
The flip flopping of the long range models this week makes me not want to look much further out than 10 days with any confidence right now. Latest models suggest the ridge re-emerging for the weekend of the 21st, & then retrograding allowing for another storm that week. This pattern looks like the typical La Nina pattern where the cold Ocean loves to put a ridge off the coast, only to occasionaly shift West enough or be crushed by big enough of a storm to allow us to get some snow. In La Nina we are always right in the middle as the Southwest is drier than normal & the NW is wetter than normal.
We have had La Nina type conditions for the past 3 winters which is why CA has been so dry. Good news looking towards next season is that the Pacific looks to start warming this summer & current thinking is for a possible "Mild" El Nino for next season. This would definitely return wetter conditions to the West Coast. BA
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Another Traffic Jam....Say it Ain't So......
Cold again today after a really cold night with lots of radiational cooling due to clear skies and the snow on the ground. Highs in the 30’s today & tomorrow as the cold air begins to move East & the ridge begins to move into the Eastern Pacific.
A piece of energy that is cut-off from the main flow will slide into CA on Thursday, but it is a very weak piece of energy so it shouldn’t create more than just some clouds. Meanwhile, a storm gets cut-off from the jetstream & spins out in the Central Pacific. This will cause a ridge to build into the weekend with lots of sun Fri. & Sat. with temps around 40 on the mtn.
Retrogression of the ridge back towards the Central Pacific on Saturday may allow for a storm hitting the Pac NW to come far enough South to bring snow to Tahoe. Meanwhile, the cut-off storm moves backwards slightly & is sitting over Hawaii right where we want the ridge to be sitting, therefore displacing the ridge to the Eastern Pacific & blocking storm activity. A blocking High pressure may form over the North Atlantic similar to the first week of February which digs a big trough into the East & dams up the progression of the flow & holds the ridge in place over the West. If this scenario holds it would put a temporary hold next week on the storms moving across the Pacific & bring lots of sun with temps in the 40’s on the mtn. & 50’s in town.
The blocking High pressure over the North Atlantic should be short lived & the cut-off storm over Hawaii will eventually get pulled up into the stalled storms sitting over the Pacific. This should allow the ridge over CA to begin progressing East by the end of next week & a new ridge to form in the Central Pacific where we want it. That would open the storm door again & give us the shot at another storm cycle, starting around the first day of spring (the 20th).
The storms are there & the model confidence has not been high due to inconsistency this week. If the block doesn’t occur, or the cut-off doesn’t get stuck in the Central Pacific, that would change everything & storms could return sooner than later. As of March 1st the snowfall to date was 70% of normal for Tahoe, & was bumped to over 90% the first week with the big storm. Hoping we can still go above average by April 1st. We'll see, Stay tuned. BA
A piece of energy that is cut-off from the main flow will slide into CA on Thursday, but it is a very weak piece of energy so it shouldn’t create more than just some clouds. Meanwhile, a storm gets cut-off from the jetstream & spins out in the Central Pacific. This will cause a ridge to build into the weekend with lots of sun Fri. & Sat. with temps around 40 on the mtn.
Retrogression of the ridge back towards the Central Pacific on Saturday may allow for a storm hitting the Pac NW to come far enough South to bring snow to Tahoe. Meanwhile, the cut-off storm moves backwards slightly & is sitting over Hawaii right where we want the ridge to be sitting, therefore displacing the ridge to the Eastern Pacific & blocking storm activity. A blocking High pressure may form over the North Atlantic similar to the first week of February which digs a big trough into the East & dams up the progression of the flow & holds the ridge in place over the West. If this scenario holds it would put a temporary hold next week on the storms moving across the Pacific & bring lots of sun with temps in the 40’s on the mtn. & 50’s in town.
The blocking High pressure over the North Atlantic should be short lived & the cut-off storm over Hawaii will eventually get pulled up into the stalled storms sitting over the Pacific. This should allow the ridge over CA to begin progressing East by the end of next week & a new ridge to form in the Central Pacific where we want it. That would open the storm door again & give us the shot at another storm cycle, starting around the first day of spring (the 20th).
The storms are there & the model confidence has not been high due to inconsistency this week. If the block doesn’t occur, or the cut-off doesn’t get stuck in the Central Pacific, that would change everything & storms could return sooner than later. As of March 1st the snowfall to date was 70% of normal for Tahoe, & was bumped to over 90% the first week with the big storm. Hoping we can still go above average by April 1st. We'll see, Stay tuned. BA
Monday, March 9, 2009
Model Mayhem.....
Woke up to a nice fresh coating of snow this morning from the cold front that went thru last night. Temps will be cold today with highs in the teens & 20's on the mtn.
Quiet weather looks to return Tuesday as that ridge off the coast moves a little closer and blocks off storm activity. Temps should start to warm a little on Wed. into the end of the week as a ridge builds over the Eastern Pacific.
Models have had no consistency & virtually no agreement going into the weekend & next week. That makes it hard to have much confidence in the pattern. The storm that was once forecast for Friday is going to get cut-off from the main flow of the jetstream and sit & spin out in the Central Pacific like other storms have been doing in the past month. The question is does the storm kick East this weekend & affect CA, or sit & spin till the next storm picks it up and arrives for next Tuesday. Once that happens it does look like we have the possibility of being stormy for a while, but the question is where exactly does the ridge in the Central Pacific setup. As of right now it looks like we will be on the Southern end of cold storms hitting the Pac NW. I'll keep you posted & hopefully we can get some more consistency the next day or two. BA
Quiet weather looks to return Tuesday as that ridge off the coast moves a little closer and blocks off storm activity. Temps should start to warm a little on Wed. into the end of the week as a ridge builds over the Eastern Pacific.
Models have had no consistency & virtually no agreement going into the weekend & next week. That makes it hard to have much confidence in the pattern. The storm that was once forecast for Friday is going to get cut-off from the main flow of the jetstream and sit & spin out in the Central Pacific like other storms have been doing in the past month. The question is does the storm kick East this weekend & affect CA, or sit & spin till the next storm picks it up and arrives for next Tuesday. Once that happens it does look like we have the possibility of being stormy for a while, but the question is where exactly does the ridge in the Central Pacific setup. As of right now it looks like we will be on the Southern end of cold storms hitting the Pac NW. I'll keep you posted & hopefully we can get some more consistency the next day or two. BA
Saturday, March 7, 2009
Best Weekend of the Season!
A cold start this morning in the teens with single digits in town. This weekend looks amazing after all that snow earlier in the week, with sunny skies and temps in the 30's on the mtn. & hitting 40 in town.
Another storm goes up and over the ridge forming in the Gulf of Alaska and slides down over us Sun. into Mon. This storm won't have much moisture so we should only get some snow flurries, but it will bring down more cold air. Highs Mon. & Tues. will be in the 20's on the mtn. & 30's in town.
Sun looks to return Tuesday as that ridge off the coast moves a little closer and blocks off storm activity. Temps should start to warm a little on Wed. into the end of the week.
Big change today in the model runs for next weekend. They were consistent all week on a big storm moving in for the weekend & then storms continuing into the following week. The ridge should re-form out in the Central Pacific allowing a nice flow to set up for storms. What models have happening right now is the storm for Friday hitting the back of the ridge as it is exiting East on Friday and splitting off from the main flow. This has happened with the initial storm that starts the storm cycle the past two months.
Hopefully the cut-off low will spin in the Central Pacific & gather moisture, then be pulled Northward ahead of the next storm coming in for the beginning of the week of the 15th, with continued storminess for that week. Latest GFS at 9 a.m. today tries to form a high pressure to the North of the cut-off low forming a Rex Block type pattern, which puts the whole pattern into a freeze with no progression of storms for a while, & we are stuck in sun & warmth. I don't buy that right now. I want to watch the models till Monday to see how it irons out. With the overall global pattern we should be stormy the second half of the month after a break this week. BA
Another storm goes up and over the ridge forming in the Gulf of Alaska and slides down over us Sun. into Mon. This storm won't have much moisture so we should only get some snow flurries, but it will bring down more cold air. Highs Mon. & Tues. will be in the 20's on the mtn. & 30's in town.
Sun looks to return Tuesday as that ridge off the coast moves a little closer and blocks off storm activity. Temps should start to warm a little on Wed. into the end of the week.
Big change today in the model runs for next weekend. They were consistent all week on a big storm moving in for the weekend & then storms continuing into the following week. The ridge should re-form out in the Central Pacific allowing a nice flow to set up for storms. What models have happening right now is the storm for Friday hitting the back of the ridge as it is exiting East on Friday and splitting off from the main flow. This has happened with the initial storm that starts the storm cycle the past two months.
Hopefully the cut-off low will spin in the Central Pacific & gather moisture, then be pulled Northward ahead of the next storm coming in for the beginning of the week of the 15th, with continued storminess for that week. Latest GFS at 9 a.m. today tries to form a high pressure to the North of the cut-off low forming a Rex Block type pattern, which puts the whole pattern into a freeze with no progression of storms for a while, & we are stuck in sun & warmth. I don't buy that right now. I want to watch the models till Monday to see how it irons out. With the overall global pattern we should be stormy the second half of the month after a break this week. BA
Thursday, March 5, 2009
Bluebird & Buried!
A cold start this morning in the teens with single digits in town. This weekend looks amazing after all that snow earlier in the week, with sunny skies and temps in the 30's on the mtn. & hitting 40 in town.
Another storm goes up and over the ridge forming in the Gulf of Alaska and slides down over us Sun. into Mon. This storm won't have much moisture so we should only get some snow flurries, but it will bring down more cold air. Highs Mon. & Tues. will be in the 20's on the mtn. & 30's in town.
Sun looks to return Tuesday as that ridge off the coast moves a little closer and blocks off storm activity. Temps should start to warm a little on Wed. into the end of the week.
Another storm goes up and over the ridge forming in the Gulf of Alaska and slides down over us Sun. into Mon. This storm won't have much moisture so we should only get some snow flurries, but it will bring down more cold air. Highs Mon. & Tues. will be in the 20's on the mtn. & 30's in town.
Sun looks to return Tuesday as that ridge off the coast moves a little closer and blocks off storm activity. Temps should start to warm a little on Wed. into the end of the week.
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
6 Feet on Top!!! Snow Totals......
Storm is finished, for now at least. That was the snowiest 24 hour period so far this season. Northstar received over 3 ft. on top since yesterday morning, & not much less at the bottom with 2 1/2 feet! 3 day storm total for Northstar is 1" shy of 6 ft. but I'm sure they got that inch as it was still snowing after the report came in. Over 3 1/2 ft. at the bottom, & about 2 1/2 feet fell in the village. This puts Northstar over it's seasonal average of 350" at 355" on top!
Looking at totals around the area everyone got 3 - 4 feet on top in the past 24 hours as of 6 a.m. 5 - 7 ft. was the norm on top of the for the 3 day storm totals. In town snow totals were impressive as well as it didn't even start snowing until about 24 hours ago. Truckee got a little over 2 ft. here on the East side of town & I'm sure it's more on the West side of town.
Today will be cold with scattered snow showers. Highs struggling to hit freezing in town, & should stay in the low 20's up on the mtn. A few more inches may accumulate but it's hard to tell where the snow showers will hit so totals will vary around the area. Official storm totals can't be calculated until Friday after the main low off the coast finally moves inland & we are sure the snow is completely done from this storm that has been sitting off the coast making it snow all week.
Looks like a break tomorrow with scattered clouds. Then as the main low kicks inland across SoCal after sitting off the coast all this week, we could get some light snow showers on Fri., along with a storm dropping inside of us that looks to bring more cold than snow. Some sun for Sat. & with a March sun angle it will feel warmer than it really is. Temps in the 20's on the mtn. thru Sunday and 30's in town.
Another storm goes up and over the ridge forming in the Gulf of Alaska and slides down over us Sun. into Mon. This storm won't have much moisture so we should only get light snow showers, but it will bring down lots of cold air. Highs Mon. & Tues. will be in the teens & 20's on the mtn. & low 30's in town.
Sun looks to return Tuesday as that ridge off the coast moves a little closer and blocks off storm activity. Temps should start to warm a little on Wed. into the end of the week.
Then the the ridge should re-form back out in the Central Pacific allowing more storms to take aim by the weekend of the 14th & into the following week for the possibility of another stormy period. The strength of these storms depends on the exact position of the ridge. The further west it sets up the further South the storms can dig & gather moisture. These will be cold storms coming down from the NW Pacific, up & over the ridge. Right now models show us on the Southern end of the storms with decent cold snow, but nothing really big. BA
Looking at totals around the area everyone got 3 - 4 feet on top in the past 24 hours as of 6 a.m. 5 - 7 ft. was the norm on top of the for the 3 day storm totals. In town snow totals were impressive as well as it didn't even start snowing until about 24 hours ago. Truckee got a little over 2 ft. here on the East side of town & I'm sure it's more on the West side of town.
Today will be cold with scattered snow showers. Highs struggling to hit freezing in town, & should stay in the low 20's up on the mtn. A few more inches may accumulate but it's hard to tell where the snow showers will hit so totals will vary around the area. Official storm totals can't be calculated until Friday after the main low off the coast finally moves inland & we are sure the snow is completely done from this storm that has been sitting off the coast making it snow all week.
Looks like a break tomorrow with scattered clouds. Then as the main low kicks inland across SoCal after sitting off the coast all this week, we could get some light snow showers on Fri., along with a storm dropping inside of us that looks to bring more cold than snow. Some sun for Sat. & with a March sun angle it will feel warmer than it really is. Temps in the 20's on the mtn. thru Sunday and 30's in town.
Another storm goes up and over the ridge forming in the Gulf of Alaska and slides down over us Sun. into Mon. This storm won't have much moisture so we should only get light snow showers, but it will bring down lots of cold air. Highs Mon. & Tues. will be in the teens & 20's on the mtn. & low 30's in town.
Sun looks to return Tuesday as that ridge off the coast moves a little closer and blocks off storm activity. Temps should start to warm a little on Wed. into the end of the week.
Then the the ridge should re-form back out in the Central Pacific allowing more storms to take aim by the weekend of the 14th & into the following week for the possibility of another stormy period. The strength of these storms depends on the exact position of the ridge. The further west it sets up the further South the storms can dig & gather moisture. These will be cold storms coming down from the NW Pacific, up & over the ridge. Right now models show us on the Southern end of the storms with decent cold snow, but nothing really big. BA
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
6 P.M. Update, The Big Day......
About a foot of snow has fallen in Truckee during the day today. My guess would be that close to double fell on top of the mtns. It snowed heavily all day. That would put Northstar close to 5 feet so far.
The strongest wave of the storm will rotate in overnight keeping the heavy snow going. The leading edge is right around Sacramento right now. It could snow heavily into the morning. Snow showers will linger thru the day Wed. Models still show up to 2" of liquid thru Wed. on the 3 p.m. model run. Temps tonight will be below 20 degrees which would put snow ratios on top at around 20:1. That would be over 3 additional feet. That may be a bit much but that's what they show. I would think 2 feet is more reseanable, but lingering snow showers could pile up tomorrow. Right now based on what has fallen and what is coming tonight, we could be over 6 ft. range for the total up top by tomorrow when everything winds down. Another foot+ could easily fall in town tonight which would bring the totals to 2 - 3 ft.
A break Thursday & then as the main low kicks inland across SoCal after sitting off the coast all this week, we could get some light snow showers. The storm for Fri/Sat. now looks more likely to drop inside of us and bring more cold than snow. A nice weekend looks to be on tap with some sunshine.
Models still show a cold storm for Monday dropping down the coast that will bring more cold air and more snow showers. Still not sure on how close to the ocean it comes down which will determine how much moisture it has to work with.
A much needed break may be in store for a few days starting mid-week as the ridge tries to move North towards the Gulf of Alaska. This pattern would start us cold during the week, gradually getting warmer. Then the ridge should re-form back out in the Central Pacific allowing more storms to take aim by the weekend & into the following week for the possibility of another stormy period. We are looking good to be above average for snowfall on top of Northstar by the weekend. BA
The strongest wave of the storm will rotate in overnight keeping the heavy snow going. The leading edge is right around Sacramento right now. It could snow heavily into the morning. Snow showers will linger thru the day Wed. Models still show up to 2" of liquid thru Wed. on the 3 p.m. model run. Temps tonight will be below 20 degrees which would put snow ratios on top at around 20:1. That would be over 3 additional feet. That may be a bit much but that's what they show. I would think 2 feet is more reseanable, but lingering snow showers could pile up tomorrow. Right now based on what has fallen and what is coming tonight, we could be over 6 ft. range for the total up top by tomorrow when everything winds down. Another foot+ could easily fall in town tonight which would bring the totals to 2 - 3 ft.
A break Thursday & then as the main low kicks inland across SoCal after sitting off the coast all this week, we could get some light snow showers. The storm for Fri/Sat. now looks more likely to drop inside of us and bring more cold than snow. A nice weekend looks to be on tap with some sunshine.
Models still show a cold storm for Monday dropping down the coast that will bring more cold air and more snow showers. Still not sure on how close to the ocean it comes down which will determine how much moisture it has to work with.
A much needed break may be in store for a few days starting mid-week as the ridge tries to move North towards the Gulf of Alaska. This pattern would start us cold during the week, gradually getting warmer. Then the ridge should re-form back out in the Central Pacific allowing more storms to take aim by the weekend & into the following week for the possibility of another stormy period. We are looking good to be above average for snowfall on top of Northstar by the weekend. BA
Monday, March 2, 2009
Update 5 P.M. Here We Go!
Snow levels sat around 6500 ft. all day. Cold front is currently coming thru and finally dropping snow levels to all valley floors.
As of this morning everyone had done pretty well yesterday up high for snow totals. Northstar picked up 16", & Sierra picked up 19". There wasn't any shadowing so the crest got about the same or even a little less. Northstar even picked up 5.5" at the base lodge at mid-mtn.
Snow showers will continue tonight. Another foot is possible on the mtn., and up to 6 inches in town.
Heavy snow showers should continue into Tuesday as the main low drifts South down the coast rotating in waves of moisture. The heaviest wave should arrive Tuesday night. Snow level will be around 5000 ft. which will up the snow ratios over Tahoe, especially over the higher elevations. By Wed. morning an additional 2 - 3 feet possible on the top of the mtn., with up to 2 feet in town. This would make it the snowiest 24 hours yet this season.
Snow showers will continue on Wed. before tapering off by the evening as the low drifts South pushing the moisture to our South. Snow totals by Wed. night look to be around 4 - 6 ft. on Northstar above 7000 ft, with up to 2+ feet in town, and the Western crest could see as much as 6 - 8 feet total at the highest peaks.
The models are still back & forth on what will happen with the main low off the coast and a storm sliding down the coast from Canada. Some models take the main low and shove it inland on Fri. with the chance of snow showers, especially to our South, then a low slides down the coast for Saturday with some cold snow. Others keep the low stalled off the coast till Sunday before coming in over SoCal. Hopefully it will sort out the next couple days, but a chance for snow exists Fri.-Sun.
Models are in agreement on a weak storm now for Monday that will bring cold air and some light snow showers. A much needed break may be in store for a few days starting mid-week as the ridge tries to move North towards the Gulf of Alaska. Sometimes this can push storms under the ridge with good moisture, but it doesn't look like that right now, just a break as storms slide inside of us. This pattern of inside sliders would keep us cold during the week. The the ridge should re-form back out in the Central Pacific allowing more storms to take aim by the end of week into the weekend. BA
As of this morning everyone had done pretty well yesterday up high for snow totals. Northstar picked up 16", & Sierra picked up 19". There wasn't any shadowing so the crest got about the same or even a little less. Northstar even picked up 5.5" at the base lodge at mid-mtn.
Snow showers will continue tonight. Another foot is possible on the mtn., and up to 6 inches in town.
Heavy snow showers should continue into Tuesday as the main low drifts South down the coast rotating in waves of moisture. The heaviest wave should arrive Tuesday night. Snow level will be around 5000 ft. which will up the snow ratios over Tahoe, especially over the higher elevations. By Wed. morning an additional 2 - 3 feet possible on the top of the mtn., with up to 2 feet in town. This would make it the snowiest 24 hours yet this season.
Snow showers will continue on Wed. before tapering off by the evening as the low drifts South pushing the moisture to our South. Snow totals by Wed. night look to be around 4 - 6 ft. on Northstar above 7000 ft, with up to 2+ feet in town, and the Western crest could see as much as 6 - 8 feet total at the highest peaks.
The models are still back & forth on what will happen with the main low off the coast and a storm sliding down the coast from Canada. Some models take the main low and shove it inland on Fri. with the chance of snow showers, especially to our South, then a low slides down the coast for Saturday with some cold snow. Others keep the low stalled off the coast till Sunday before coming in over SoCal. Hopefully it will sort out the next couple days, but a chance for snow exists Fri.-Sun.
Models are in agreement on a weak storm now for Monday that will bring cold air and some light snow showers. A much needed break may be in store for a few days starting mid-week as the ridge tries to move North towards the Gulf of Alaska. Sometimes this can push storms under the ridge with good moisture, but it doesn't look like that right now, just a break as storms slide inside of us. This pattern of inside sliders would keep us cold during the week. The the ridge should re-form back out in the Central Pacific allowing more storms to take aim by the end of week into the weekend. BA
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
