Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Another Traffic Jam....Say it Ain't So......

Cold again today after a really cold night with lots of radiational cooling due to clear skies and the snow on the ground. Highs in the 30’s today & tomorrow as the cold air begins to move East & the ridge begins to move into the Eastern Pacific.

A piece of energy that is cut-off from the main flow will slide into CA on Thursday, but it is a very weak piece of energy so it shouldn’t create more than just some clouds. Meanwhile, a storm gets cut-off from the jetstream & spins out in the Central Pacific. This will cause a ridge to build into the weekend with lots of sun Fri. & Sat. with temps around 40 on the mtn.

Retrogression of the ridge back towards the Central Pacific on Saturday may allow for a storm hitting the Pac NW to come far enough South to bring snow to Tahoe. Meanwhile, the cut-off storm moves backwards slightly & is sitting over Hawaii right where we want the ridge to be sitting, therefore displacing the ridge to the Eastern Pacific & blocking storm activity. A blocking High pressure may form over the North Atlantic similar to the first week of February which digs a big trough into the East & dams up the progression of the flow & holds the ridge in place over the West. If this scenario holds it would put a temporary hold next week on the storms moving across the Pacific & bring lots of sun with temps in the 40’s on the mtn. & 50’s in town.

The blocking High pressure over the North Atlantic should be short lived & the cut-off storm over Hawaii will eventually get pulled up into the stalled storms sitting over the Pacific. This should allow the ridge over CA to begin progressing East by the end of next week & a new ridge to form in the Central Pacific where we want it. That would open the storm door again & give us the shot at another storm cycle, starting around the first day of spring (the 20th).

The storms are there & the model confidence has not been high due to inconsistency this week. If the block doesn’t occur, or the cut-off doesn’t get stuck in the Central Pacific, that would change everything & storms could return sooner than later. As of March 1st the snowfall to date was 70% of normal for Tahoe, & was bumped to over 90% the first week with the big storm. Hoping we can still go above average by April 1st. We'll see, Stay tuned. BA


Anonymous said...

Do you have any idea how long the storminess will last during the week of the 20th?

Anonymous said...

Still some uncertainty for next week or is it looking like the storms are gonna just miss us?