Friday, March 13, 2009

Back in Business.......

Always love when the models change their tune in favor of more instead of less snow!

It now looks as if slight retrogression of the ridge back towards the Central Pacific on Saturday is going to allow storm activity to come far enough South to bring snow to Tahoe Sat. night thru Monday. There will be two waves associated with the storm, one arrives Sat. night & the other on Monday. Since we are on the Southern edge of the storm the crest is going to cause a good deal of shadowing, & North Tahoe including Northstar will get the heaviest precip. Snow should start up on the crest Sat. night & then spread into Tahoe by Sunday. Snow levels will start at Lake level then rise slightly. A stronger piece of the storm arrives Monday & could bring a decent shot of snow. I will focus on snow totals & levels tomorrow, but this should freshen up the slopes once again.

Starting Tuesday the ridge shifts back slightly East & push the storm track just to our North. The Pac NW & into far Northern CA will get hammered with storms thru next week, but they will just miss us. We will be stuck in the sun with temps in the 40's on the mtn., 50's in town.

As the cut-off storm over Hawaii finally gets pulled Northward by storms to it's North, the ridge will be able to retrograde Westward towards the end of the week. This could lead to some storms for next weekend. Today's models are showing a better chance at some decent snow for next weekend into early the following week.

After that it looks like a typical pattern of ridges building in for a few days then retrograding & allowing cold storms to dive in. 1 or 2 good storms already on the table now in the next 10 days, but could be at least one more before the end of the month. Like December, when we are getting close to a change in the seasons the models are not very accurate in the long-term. Will have rely on good old fashioned studying of the global patterns. Right now they suggest that Northern CA still has the chance at some decent precipitation the end of March into April. BA


Anonymous said...

thats clutch BA. we looking at inches or feet here?

808 said...

Thanks for the awesome discussion.

I am in Hawaii, arriving at Lake Tahoe next Wednesday and I have been checking your blog everyday hoping for the best.

The low on top of Hawaii, just sent some real big, disorganized surf this afternoon. Very unusual low.

What do you think are the chances of getting some snow, late next week? We'll be there in the mountains next Tur/fri/sat/sun/mom.