After one last sunny and seasonal temp day today, clouds will be on the increas tonight & tomorrow ahead of the cold front coming in for the weekend. We will be on the tail end of a strong cold front and storm pounding the Pac NW tomorrow, so moisture will be limited for us. Still, the storm for friday night will be somewhat vigorous although short lived. Snow on the mtn. and rain in town should start during the day on Friday with snow levels starting near 7000 feet before falling to 5000 by dinner time Friday. As the cold front comes thru Friday night models have been consistent on a quick 5-10 inches of snow for everyone with possibly up to a foot on the Western Crest by Saturday. There is another piece of energy behind the front but it looks to dive into SoCal. That should make the rest of the weekend pretty much snow free & sunny on Sunday. That should be it for us storm wise for a while. Temps will be much colder for the weekend with highs in the 20's.
For anyone wishing they could be in Times Square to see the ball drop tonight, there is a snowstorm there today and temps tonight will feel like -10, so maybe not.
Storms will continue to pound Washington & Oregon all next week with the ridge beginning to move in just offshore of CA. Mon-Tues, some clouds and some snow showers may be able to slide down and just touch us. This will also keep temps in the 30's. The rest of the week we are just below the storms as the ridge builds. Models are a little back and forth on the position of the ridge. The best we can hope for right now is that it stays a little offshore so that we at least can get some cooler air as storms slide down to our East over the Rockies. Still don't see any signs of a pattern change yet as the ridge looks to hold strong the first two weeks of Jan. BA
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
Tuesday A.M. Update.......
No Change...........Models showing not as strong or warm of a ridge over the period but still showing it out to the 15th. I think I may see something lurking offshore just after though. Stay tuned. Dec. re-cap Thursday.
Sunday, December 28, 2008
Let's Talk...........
Let's talk about the long range pattern as today marks the end of week 1 of official winter. Still have 11 weeks to go. Dare I say the Wicked Ridge of the West may ride again over the next few weeks. This will be my detailed discussion of what is ahead for us and then I will tweak if anything changes this week, plus my december recap on temps will be on Thursday.
I always like to start with all the positives first. So far this season, basically in the past two weeks, we have gotten about 13 feet unofficially up on the Western Crest here in Tahoe. Interesting to note that we are already ahead of yearly snowfall for 1881 in which the whole year there was 12 feet. We are just shy of 1977 which had 15 feet and 1924 which had 16, and winter is only 1 week old. (Just an aside for those of you keeping track of Global temperature data. The average global temperature fell .75 degrees last year and .25 this year, which has erased any of the warming of the 20th Century.) Of course we are a far cry from 1938 & 53 which saw nearly 70 feet, almost double the average. Those are the years they use for pictures to make you think it snows a lot less now, which it doesn't.
I am noticing a pattern here with 1996. That year was very dry like this year up until mid December. Then it dumped till about Christmas, and rained, which we narrowly avoided last week. Then it stopped again. By mid January Northstar had laid off 20% of its employees. Then it starting snowing and didn't stop. 1996 ended up being the biggest snow year in the past 25 years with 50 feet of snow! Not saying we will have the biggest snow year in 25 years, but we should be getting back into lots of snow by the second half of January.
Watching the models you can clearly see that after a possible short lived cold front next weekend and a little snow (and I emphasize little), a huge trough digs into the Eastern half of the country. Most of the time if you want to know what are weather will be just look at the East and we will have the opposite. That will be the case the first half of January as the negative NAO sets up its blocking pattern and has storms going up the East Coast and driving cold down into the middle and Eastern half of the country. In reading the discussion of long range forecasters they actually seem to agree that this will be an extreme but short lived event. That is good for us because when the East gets warm we are usually cold and snowy.
Let me paraphrase a quote from long range forecaster Joe Bastardi in his blog today. Keep in mind that by "Nation" he means the Heartland to the East, so we are looking for them to have the opposite of what we want, Cold and Snow. "I wish to stress that the kind of pattern coming will bring the coldest 10 day period for the nation between the 5th and 25th, something we have not seen in many years in January, but it will flip and the warming that comes after this period will mean the worst of winter is over for the nation. It is my firm belief that this will evolve into a much warmer pattern after around Jan. 20." What that would mean for us is that when the Heartland and East is getting severe cold the first half of January caused by the negative NAO and AO, there will be a ridge over the West Coast with mild air and no storms. When the pattern reverses around the 15-20 of Jan. the door should re-open to allow troughs with cold air and storms to return.
That is just one of the factors leading to our warm up and shutdown of the storm door, but it's a good one. The PNA, which I have many times explained is how amplified up and down the jetstream over the Pacific Ocean is, will be going Positive(way up and down). This will help to pump a ridge over use for a couple of weeks and a trough into the East. Good news is that Ed Berry agrees that this pattern is short lived. Once we can get the NOA to reverse over the East Coast and allow the cold to come back over the West, the PNA should go Negative and we should be in business.
Let me just paraphrase a quote from Ed Berry's latest blog this weekend. "JFM I think some rendition of a superposition of tropical and extratropical circulation(rainfall) for phases 3-4 of both the MJO and GWO are a possibility. That suggests a continued loose preference for a central Pacific Ocean ridge-West and Central North American trough. There will be some variations, case in point the west coast ridge/eastern states trough predicted by many week-2 models is not unrealistic (a feedback in this case)." So as you can see he thinks things are still set up for a favorable position of tropical activity to feed our storms and possibly the MJO becoming a factor in increasing that feed, which is what triggered almost all of our big storm outbreaks last season. He thinks that the West Coast ridge and East Coast Trough is a temporary feedback issue in the pattern.
So we will have to watch and look for the sign of the change back to stormy for the second half of the month. Hopefully we can squeeze out some snow from next weekends cold front before our 2 week Wicked Ridge. I'll keep you posted.
No changes to this weeks weather with lots of clouds and some sun from the 3 big storms pounding the Pacific Northwest. Temps in the 40's and lows in the 20's with inversions setting up. Cold front should come thru Friday night with colder weather and some snow showers for the weekend. BA
I always like to start with all the positives first. So far this season, basically in the past two weeks, we have gotten about 13 feet unofficially up on the Western Crest here in Tahoe. Interesting to note that we are already ahead of yearly snowfall for 1881 in which the whole year there was 12 feet. We are just shy of 1977 which had 15 feet and 1924 which had 16, and winter is only 1 week old. (Just an aside for those of you keeping track of Global temperature data. The average global temperature fell .75 degrees last year and .25 this year, which has erased any of the warming of the 20th Century.) Of course we are a far cry from 1938 & 53 which saw nearly 70 feet, almost double the average. Those are the years they use for pictures to make you think it snows a lot less now, which it doesn't.
I am noticing a pattern here with 1996. That year was very dry like this year up until mid December. Then it dumped till about Christmas, and rained, which we narrowly avoided last week. Then it stopped again. By mid January Northstar had laid off 20% of its employees. Then it starting snowing and didn't stop. 1996 ended up being the biggest snow year in the past 25 years with 50 feet of snow! Not saying we will have the biggest snow year in 25 years, but we should be getting back into lots of snow by the second half of January.
Watching the models you can clearly see that after a possible short lived cold front next weekend and a little snow (and I emphasize little), a huge trough digs into the Eastern half of the country. Most of the time if you want to know what are weather will be just look at the East and we will have the opposite. That will be the case the first half of January as the negative NAO sets up its blocking pattern and has storms going up the East Coast and driving cold down into the middle and Eastern half of the country. In reading the discussion of long range forecasters they actually seem to agree that this will be an extreme but short lived event. That is good for us because when the East gets warm we are usually cold and snowy.
Let me paraphrase a quote from long range forecaster Joe Bastardi in his blog today. Keep in mind that by "Nation" he means the Heartland to the East, so we are looking for them to have the opposite of what we want, Cold and Snow. "I wish to stress that the kind of pattern coming will bring the coldest 10 day period for the nation between the 5th and 25th, something we have not seen in many years in January, but it will flip and the warming that comes after this period will mean the worst of winter is over for the nation. It is my firm belief that this will evolve into a much warmer pattern after around Jan. 20." What that would mean for us is that when the Heartland and East is getting severe cold the first half of January caused by the negative NAO and AO, there will be a ridge over the West Coast with mild air and no storms. When the pattern reverses around the 15-20 of Jan. the door should re-open to allow troughs with cold air and storms to return.
That is just one of the factors leading to our warm up and shutdown of the storm door, but it's a good one. The PNA, which I have many times explained is how amplified up and down the jetstream over the Pacific Ocean is, will be going Positive(way up and down). This will help to pump a ridge over use for a couple of weeks and a trough into the East. Good news is that Ed Berry agrees that this pattern is short lived. Once we can get the NOA to reverse over the East Coast and allow the cold to come back over the West, the PNA should go Negative and we should be in business.
Let me just paraphrase a quote from Ed Berry's latest blog this weekend. "JFM I think some rendition of a superposition of tropical and extratropical circulation(rainfall) for phases 3-4 of both the MJO and GWO are a possibility. That suggests a continued loose preference for a central Pacific Ocean ridge-West and Central North American trough. There will be some variations, case in point the west coast ridge/eastern states trough predicted by many week-2 models is not unrealistic (a feedback in this case)." So as you can see he thinks things are still set up for a favorable position of tropical activity to feed our storms and possibly the MJO becoming a factor in increasing that feed, which is what triggered almost all of our big storm outbreaks last season. He thinks that the West Coast ridge and East Coast Trough is a temporary feedback issue in the pattern.
So we will have to watch and look for the sign of the change back to stormy for the second half of the month. Hopefully we can squeeze out some snow from next weekends cold front before our 2 week Wicked Ridge. I'll keep you posted.
No changes to this weeks weather with lots of clouds and some sun from the 3 big storms pounding the Pacific Northwest. Temps in the 40's and lows in the 20's with inversions setting up. Cold front should come thru Friday night with colder weather and some snow showers for the weekend. BA
Saturday, December 27, 2008
Zonal flow will be in place all week. Storms will continue to pound the Pacific Northwest and we will be on the southern fringe. Clouds and milder air off of the pacific. A flat rigde will be over SoCal keeping the storms just to our north. We may get a few showers of rain in town and snow on the mtn. tomorrow and just clouds the rest of the week with plenty of sun from time to time as well. Temps will be in the 40's for everyone and lows in the 20's. Inversions will form on the clear nights.
Trough may be able to break thru next weekend with some colder air and snow. The big feature over the next couple of weeks though is a strengthening negative NAO(North Atlantic Oscillation. This is one of the things we had in early Dec. It blocks the progression of troughs across the country and sets up a big trough along the Eastern Seaboard, bringing cold & snow. It looks as if we will have a repeat to Dec. going into Jan. Eventually in a couple of weeks the trough and cold will back up into the West. Until then we will have much milder and drier weather than what we have had the past couple weeks. Not really warm but back to or just above normal for this time of year. Hopefully we got enough snow to hold us over.
It seems as though after the trough backs into the West we should go into our above normal stormy pattern thru March. I'll let you know the first sign of more cold and snow. BA
Trough may be able to break thru next weekend with some colder air and snow. The big feature over the next couple of weeks though is a strengthening negative NAO(North Atlantic Oscillation. This is one of the things we had in early Dec. It blocks the progression of troughs across the country and sets up a big trough along the Eastern Seaboard, bringing cold & snow. It looks as if we will have a repeat to Dec. going into Jan. Eventually in a couple of weeks the trough and cold will back up into the West. Until then we will have much milder and drier weather than what we have had the past couple weeks. Not really warm but back to or just above normal for this time of year. Hopefully we got enough snow to hold us over.
It seems as though after the trough backs into the West we should go into our above normal stormy pattern thru March. I'll let you know the first sign of more cold and snow. BA
Friday, December 26, 2008
Great Christmas Storm 08 Re-Cap.....
Hope that everyone had a good Christmas, and got out to enjoy the multiple feet of snow. Storm came in strong as expected, but the temps were a little warmer. Temps in town were 32 all the way up until 4 a.m. when the cold front finally came thru. This lowered snow to water ratios to around 10:1 for a good part of the storm. Also, the small wave of energy that was supposed to come in last night and enhance snowfall got ripped apart as it came across and didn't really produce much shower activity. These two factors kept snow totals down about a foot lower than what was anticipated. Needless to say this was still a decent storm. Northstar ended up just shy of 3 feet as of this morning for the two day storm total. Areas along the crest reported from 3 1/2 - 4 feet. I think most areas around town received 12-18 inches.
Today will be sunny and cold so get out and enjoy the fresh snow. The rest of the week temps will warm into the 40's with storms slamming the Pacific NorthWest bringing occasional cloudiness to the area. Will have to watch, if the jet sags just a little we could get some light snowfall. Looks like the trough may break thru next weekend with a decent storm and more cold air.
In the extended models try to push a ridge into the area starting the week of the 5th. Will keep watching and will get into the extended more tomorrow. BA
Today will be sunny and cold so get out and enjoy the fresh snow. The rest of the week temps will warm into the 40's with storms slamming the Pacific NorthWest bringing occasional cloudiness to the area. Will have to watch, if the jet sags just a little we could get some light snowfall. Looks like the trough may break thru next weekend with a decent storm and more cold air.
In the extended models try to push a ridge into the area starting the week of the 5th. Will keep watching and will get into the extended more tomorrow. BA
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Wed. A.M. Storm Update.......
Will have to bump everyone's snow totals up about a foot! Storm for today is getting more favorable dynamics and is already producing snow this morning. Will most likely have 6 inches in town by tonight and up to a foot on the mountain as a band of heavier snow will form along I-80. Cold front will slowly move thru overnight with the heaviest snow just after midnight in the Tahoe area. Strong winds ahead of the front tonight will cause blizzard conditions. Another foot should fall overnight and up to two feet on top of the mountain. Snow showers lasting thru Christmas day could drop another 6 inches in town and another foot on the mountain. Total liquid on this mornings models is up to 1.75-2 inches in the Tahoe area which would equal about 25-30 inches at lake level and 35-40 inches above 7000 ft. So by Christmas night as the storm moves away my thinking right now is around 2 feet in Truckee, 3 feet at the bottom of the mountain and up to 4 feet at the top. Highest peaks along the Crest could receive as much as 5 feet of snow with snowfall rates tonight over Donner Summit of 3-4 inches per hour. Reno should even ring in this time with 4-8 inches of snow. Snow showers Thurs night into Friday will have very high snow ratios and models are hinting at a wave moving thru similar to Monday nights wave which could produce several additional inches of fluffy powder on top of the storm totals.
Will update tonight and tomorrow. Be safe, Merry Christmas. BA
Will update tonight and tomorrow. Be safe, Merry Christmas. BA
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Northstar Hits 100" Mark for the Season!
Post frontal showers yesterday afternoon and the final wave that came thru last night dropped another foot on Northstar bringing the storm total to 20" and the season total to 100"! That includes 18" from Nov. Only need 18 more to hit my 100" Dec. idea and I think we will easily do that by Friday. That will be in only two weeks really. Hopefully this is a sign of the season to come! This time last season we were only up to 50".
Reports from areas along the crest were anywhere from 20-32" from the storm since Sunday. Unofficially here at the office in Truckee I measured 9" & 11" at my house at Northstar. That includes the 6-8" that fell overnight around town. So we got the high end of the projections, with some places more.
We will get a break today and it should be similar to Saturday with some sun and temps right around freezing with light winds. May be the best riding conditions all week if you are a fair weather rider.
On satellite you can see the next storm off the coast of Oregon diving down into Northern CA. The storm is splitting with most of the energy diving into SoCal, but it now looks like it will come far enough inland to give us some snow. Snow should start tonight and last thru the day tomorrow. Temps will be around freezing and snow levels will rise to near 6000 ft. briefly by the afternoon, so it will be a wet snow with not much accumulation in town and up to 6 inches on the mountain. Next storm is right on the heels of the Wed. storm with no break in precip but snow levels crashing and cold air along with heavy snow & strong winds arriving by Wed. night. Snow will last thru Christmas day, with lingering post frontal snow showers and cold air with lows in the single digits and highs in the low 20's thru Friday. Total liquid on the latest models from tonight - Friday is 1.5-1.75 over Tahoe. .5 of that is the Wed. storm which i totaled above. So 1-1.25 at 12:1 ratios in town and 20:1 on the mountain. Will go with 12 inches in town and 15-25 inches on the mountain. That is a storm total of 20-30 inches by Friday. Could be more if post frontal showers linger on Friday like last night. Should be 24-36 inches for areas along the Crest. Would not recommend going over Donner Pass after tomorrow afternoon as there will be blizzard condtions thru Christmas morning.
Over the weekend we have a pattern change to a more zonal flow which will warm temps into the 30's. Should be a nice day on Saturday with increasing clouds ahead of a small wet snowstorm possible for Sat. night. Will not get into details in the extended because the models are all over the place. Will have to see where the tropical activity in the Western Pacific heads and where the ridge sets up. Options are a ridge for the first week of Jan., or more cold storms with more moisture to work with. Let's deal with that after this big Christmas storm.
Will update tomorrow on snow projections. Travel safe. BA
Reports from areas along the crest were anywhere from 20-32" from the storm since Sunday. Unofficially here at the office in Truckee I measured 9" & 11" at my house at Northstar. That includes the 6-8" that fell overnight around town. So we got the high end of the projections, with some places more.
We will get a break today and it should be similar to Saturday with some sun and temps right around freezing with light winds. May be the best riding conditions all week if you are a fair weather rider.
On satellite you can see the next storm off the coast of Oregon diving down into Northern CA. The storm is splitting with most of the energy diving into SoCal, but it now looks like it will come far enough inland to give us some snow. Snow should start tonight and last thru the day tomorrow. Temps will be around freezing and snow levels will rise to near 6000 ft. briefly by the afternoon, so it will be a wet snow with not much accumulation in town and up to 6 inches on the mountain. Next storm is right on the heels of the Wed. storm with no break in precip but snow levels crashing and cold air along with heavy snow & strong winds arriving by Wed. night. Snow will last thru Christmas day, with lingering post frontal snow showers and cold air with lows in the single digits and highs in the low 20's thru Friday. Total liquid on the latest models from tonight - Friday is 1.5-1.75 over Tahoe. .5 of that is the Wed. storm which i totaled above. So 1-1.25 at 12:1 ratios in town and 20:1 on the mountain. Will go with 12 inches in town and 15-25 inches on the mountain. That is a storm total of 20-30 inches by Friday. Could be more if post frontal showers linger on Friday like last night. Should be 24-36 inches for areas along the Crest. Would not recommend going over Donner Pass after tomorrow afternoon as there will be blizzard condtions thru Christmas morning.
Over the weekend we have a pattern change to a more zonal flow which will warm temps into the 30's. Should be a nice day on Saturday with increasing clouds ahead of a small wet snowstorm possible for Sat. night. Will not get into details in the extended because the models are all over the place. Will have to see where the tropical activity in the Western Pacific heads and where the ridge sets up. Options are a ridge for the first week of Jan., or more cold storms with more moisture to work with. Let's deal with that after this big Christmas storm.
Will update tomorrow on snow projections. Travel safe. BA
Sunday, December 21, 2008
Sun. P.M. Update on snowstorms, There are plenty.........
Sorry for the delay in writing, was having some technical issues with the computer models.
So the warm front ahead of the main storm came thru this morning with wet snow that really didn't accumulate to much and it raised the snow levels to over 6500 feet. This is not the main storm. The cold front that will bring us the snow is just now entering North West CA. Snow should be on the increase heading into tonight and then it should dump as the cold front comes across us in the early morning hours. Snow will continue into Monday night as another small storm brings several more inches. Snow ratios will start at 10:1 then drop to 15:1 in town and 20:1 up high. Snow levels will fall below 3000 ft. as temps drop to around 20 up high and mid 20's in town. Highs will only be in the 20's everywhere tomorrow. Total liquid by Tuesday morning looks to be around .75-1 inch over the Tahoe area. Will go with 15:1 snow ratios as an avg. on the mountain which equates to 12-18 inches by Tuesday, with about 6-10 in Town, and 18-24 along the crest. Warm temps made a good base today so this will be base builder wet snow turning to fluffy powder by Monday.
Christmas Eve storm now looks to slide down the coast. Some models have it coming close enough to bring about .5 inches of liquid, so about 6 inches of snow. Others have it staying offshore and then coming in over SoCal and only bringing us some light snow showers if anything. Storm has lots of moisture with it so we will have to closely watch the track.
Christmas storm still looks cold and a little wetter than the past two days. Latest model this afternoon has about 2-3 inches of liquid with it. It will be a cold storm so could bring anywhere from 2-4 feet on the mountains and 1-2 feet in town. Will have to watch this closely because those amounts are because the model is showing us in a favorabe left exit region of the jet stream with this which could change if the track is a little different. Either way this week looks cold and snowy with at least 2 feet to as much as 5+ feet on the mountains by Friday with temps in the 20's all week.
Next weekend still on track for sunny and a little warmer with temps in the 30's. In the extended New Years week looks very cold and snowy with storms taking more of an over water path and tapping some subtropical moisture. That could be an interesting week. No signs of a ridge as far as I can see. Will update on Tuesday with snow totals from the storm and a beter handle on snow amounts expected from the two storms over Christmas. BA
So the warm front ahead of the main storm came thru this morning with wet snow that really didn't accumulate to much and it raised the snow levels to over 6500 feet. This is not the main storm. The cold front that will bring us the snow is just now entering North West CA. Snow should be on the increase heading into tonight and then it should dump as the cold front comes across us in the early morning hours. Snow will continue into Monday night as another small storm brings several more inches. Snow ratios will start at 10:1 then drop to 15:1 in town and 20:1 up high. Snow levels will fall below 3000 ft. as temps drop to around 20 up high and mid 20's in town. Highs will only be in the 20's everywhere tomorrow. Total liquid by Tuesday morning looks to be around .75-1 inch over the Tahoe area. Will go with 15:1 snow ratios as an avg. on the mountain which equates to 12-18 inches by Tuesday, with about 6-10 in Town, and 18-24 along the crest. Warm temps made a good base today so this will be base builder wet snow turning to fluffy powder by Monday.
Christmas Eve storm now looks to slide down the coast. Some models have it coming close enough to bring about .5 inches of liquid, so about 6 inches of snow. Others have it staying offshore and then coming in over SoCal and only bringing us some light snow showers if anything. Storm has lots of moisture with it so we will have to closely watch the track.
Christmas storm still looks cold and a little wetter than the past two days. Latest model this afternoon has about 2-3 inches of liquid with it. It will be a cold storm so could bring anywhere from 2-4 feet on the mountains and 1-2 feet in town. Will have to watch this closely because those amounts are because the model is showing us in a favorabe left exit region of the jet stream with this which could change if the track is a little different. Either way this week looks cold and snowy with at least 2 feet to as much as 5+ feet on the mountains by Friday with temps in the 20's all week.
Next weekend still on track for sunny and a little warmer with temps in the 30's. In the extended New Years week looks very cold and snowy with storms taking more of an over water path and tapping some subtropical moisture. That could be an interesting week. No signs of a ridge as far as I can see. Will update on Tuesday with snow totals from the storm and a beter handle on snow amounts expected from the two storms over Christmas. BA
Friday, December 19, 2008
No Need to Dream of a White Christmas......
What a difference a week can make! This time last week I was looking at a cam on top of the mountain and all I saw was dirt. As of this morning Northstar is reporting 9” overnight bringing the 7 day total just a couple inches short of 5 feet. We are well on our way to the over 100” December.
Storm coming down the coast last night was supposed to come down as far as the Wahsington/Oregon border and tap into some moisture sitting off the CA coast. Storm only came down as far as the Canadian border and then headed inland. Temps also didn’t get as cold as they would have because the storm didn’t come further south with the cold air. Snow ratios were closer to 15:1 than 20:1. These two factors made most locations end up about 5-10 inches less than what I was thinking. Will have to see the grand totals tomorrow morning. Up along the crest most locations reported over a foot so it was still a good storm.
Will not be as cold tonight as was thought before but should still get down near zero. Tomorrow is a sunny day with a high near 32 and lighter winds. Next storm comes in for Sunday afternoon into Monday. Liquid is looking to be 1.5-2 inches with this storm as it has a track more over water than the last few and will gather more moisture, but will be quick moving. Same amount of liquid as Monday’s storm but temps will be near freezing so snow ratios will be closer to 10:1. This would translate to 15-20 inches with a little more along the crest.
Tuesday looks like a little break before the next storm arrives. It was looking as if the ridge would retrograde back to 160w and the storm would tap subtropical moisture and really give us the hose with 6-8 inches of liquid. Bad news when we get that sort of connection is the snow levels rise. Yesterday the models showed the snow levels rising to 7500 ft. by Wed. night. Since last night the models have been showing the ridge holding at 150w and the storms coming down more from Alaska and hence being colder and snow levels staying below 6000 ft. This also makes them drier but still very moist because of their over-water trajectory. Models spreads for precip today have been wide showing anywhere from 1-4.5 inches of total liquid with around 10:1 snow to water ratios. This means anywhere from 10-45 inches from this storm with about a foot more along the crest. Will have to monitor this over the weekend and hopefully get a better idea of amounts. The storm would last into Friday before finally clearing out.
Christmas weekend looks sunny again then several more cold storms could dump on us New Year’s week before another sunny New Year’s weekend. I can’t think of a better pattern. Will continue to update snowfall predictions each day. BA
Storm coming down the coast last night was supposed to come down as far as the Wahsington/Oregon border and tap into some moisture sitting off the CA coast. Storm only came down as far as the Canadian border and then headed inland. Temps also didn’t get as cold as they would have because the storm didn’t come further south with the cold air. Snow ratios were closer to 15:1 than 20:1. These two factors made most locations end up about 5-10 inches less than what I was thinking. Will have to see the grand totals tomorrow morning. Up along the crest most locations reported over a foot so it was still a good storm.
Will not be as cold tonight as was thought before but should still get down near zero. Tomorrow is a sunny day with a high near 32 and lighter winds. Next storm comes in for Sunday afternoon into Monday. Liquid is looking to be 1.5-2 inches with this storm as it has a track more over water than the last few and will gather more moisture, but will be quick moving. Same amount of liquid as Monday’s storm but temps will be near freezing so snow ratios will be closer to 10:1. This would translate to 15-20 inches with a little more along the crest.
Tuesday looks like a little break before the next storm arrives. It was looking as if the ridge would retrograde back to 160w and the storm would tap subtropical moisture and really give us the hose with 6-8 inches of liquid. Bad news when we get that sort of connection is the snow levels rise. Yesterday the models showed the snow levels rising to 7500 ft. by Wed. night. Since last night the models have been showing the ridge holding at 150w and the storms coming down more from Alaska and hence being colder and snow levels staying below 6000 ft. This also makes them drier but still very moist because of their over-water trajectory. Models spreads for precip today have been wide showing anywhere from 1-4.5 inches of total liquid with around 10:1 snow to water ratios. This means anywhere from 10-45 inches from this storm with about a foot more along the crest. Will have to monitor this over the weekend and hopefully get a better idea of amounts. The storm would last into Friday before finally clearing out.
Christmas weekend looks sunny again then several more cold storms could dump on us New Year’s week before another sunny New Year’s weekend. I can’t think of a better pattern. Will continue to update snowfall predictions each day. BA
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Storm Update Thurs. A.M.
Still going with last nights projections. 10-15 inches in town, 15-20 inches on the mountain, and 20-25 along the Western crest. Closer you are to the western crest the more you get with this storm with shadowing from the mountains. Glad to not be living in Tahoe Donner anymore. Ridge top winds over 100 mph with the cold front tonight. Wouldn't recommend going over Donner Summit. Lighter winds in the valleys as the cold air in place won't allown winds to dive down. Coldest air so far this season settling in by Friday night with temps in town well below zero. Will update if snowfall projections change, otherwise will give preliminary totals in the morning. Will snow thru the day Friday.
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Cold, Snow, more snow, more cold, more snow............................
Ok, so it has been so busy lately with the arrival of winter that long range discussions have been put to the wayside. Let's take a look tonight at what is going on since this may be one of only two days without snow for at least the next 10 days.
The ridge is finally at near 150w with an amplified pattern allowing for cold shots to come down from the Arctic and storms to come down the coast along with the cold fronts. There is a ton of cold air up in the arctic. Arctic sea is growing at a record pace and cold and snow records are being broken all across the northern hemisphere. Just this week there was only the 3rd measurable snowfall on record since 1948 in New Orleans, 6 inches fell just north of the city, and the earliest measurable snowfall on record fell in Houston. Today it snowed from the foothills of San Diego & Las Vegas down to 1500 ft. and across the desert to Las Vegas, which reported its largest snowfall since 1978 with 6 inches and it is still snowing as we speak. 63 snowfall records & 115 low temp records were set in the month of October across the U.S. This cold has spared the West Coast up until this past weekend but no longer. Temps were recorded as low as -20 in parts of the Sierra & Western Nevada last night. Another shot of Arctic air will follow the Thursday night storm with what the NWS is calling the coldest air in a few years with lows down in the single digits in Seattle and Portland and well below zero in the Sierras.
It will warm a little on Sunday but still below normal ahead of the next storm with cold behind this one as well. The ridge may back up to 160w by Wed.(Christmas Eve.). This would put us more in line with the upslope of the trough instead of the downslope. This could allow a subtropical tap to be established adding tons of moisture into the storms that follow. This was discussed before as an option to us having some big storms Jan-Mar. Here is what Ed Berry had to say in his most recent discussion. "Speculation suggests a rendition of our La-Nina like state will continue through at least JFM, but with situations having anomalous subtropical jets and possibly even episodes of strong East Asian/North Pacific Ocean jets slamming the USA west coast." The only thing we have to watch with this situation is that the snow levels tend to be higher with the subtropical feed. Snow levels will be closer to 6000 ft. starting on Christmas. There is still tons of cold air coming down from the north during this period, so as of right now it looks like all snow for us, and LOTS of it. We may be stuck in this pattern into the New Year which is what the models suggest at this time as well.
Looking at Liquid amounts for the next few storms. Thursday night shows .5-.75 at the lake and 1-1.25 on the crest. This may go up if the storm can get a feed from another storm just off the coast. Snow ratios again will be close to 20:1 so will go with 10-15 inches in town, 15-20 up high and 20-25 along the Western Crest. Sunday nights storm is looking more moist with near 2 inches of liquid but with lower snow ratios of 10:1 going to 15:1. this would be another 2 feet or more for everyone. Christmas Eve storm (which may last several days) looks very impressive right now with 3 mor inches of liquid just by Christmas Morning. If it stay all snow that is another 2-3 feet with snow continuing. So right now there is the potential for 4-5 feet by Christmas Day with 6-7 feet along the Crest. Just to our South from Sierra at Tahoe down to Mono County there is a "Bulls Eye" of 8-10 inches of liquid over the next week which equates to over 100 inches of snow.
I am not making this stuff up, these are my conservative numbers given the pattern and how the models are handling the storms at this time. Looks like maybe a short break Christmas weekend before another cold shot with more snow the following week, another short break, then more cold and snow. I will do an update of snowfall potential on tomorrow nights storm in the morning. Hope you have a good stock of wax. BA
The ridge is finally at near 150w with an amplified pattern allowing for cold shots to come down from the Arctic and storms to come down the coast along with the cold fronts. There is a ton of cold air up in the arctic. Arctic sea is growing at a record pace and cold and snow records are being broken all across the northern hemisphere. Just this week there was only the 3rd measurable snowfall on record since 1948 in New Orleans, 6 inches fell just north of the city, and the earliest measurable snowfall on record fell in Houston. Today it snowed from the foothills of San Diego & Las Vegas down to 1500 ft. and across the desert to Las Vegas, which reported its largest snowfall since 1978 with 6 inches and it is still snowing as we speak. 63 snowfall records & 115 low temp records were set in the month of October across the U.S. This cold has spared the West Coast up until this past weekend but no longer. Temps were recorded as low as -20 in parts of the Sierra & Western Nevada last night. Another shot of Arctic air will follow the Thursday night storm with what the NWS is calling the coldest air in a few years with lows down in the single digits in Seattle and Portland and well below zero in the Sierras.
It will warm a little on Sunday but still below normal ahead of the next storm with cold behind this one as well. The ridge may back up to 160w by Wed.(Christmas Eve.). This would put us more in line with the upslope of the trough instead of the downslope. This could allow a subtropical tap to be established adding tons of moisture into the storms that follow. This was discussed before as an option to us having some big storms Jan-Mar. Here is what Ed Berry had to say in his most recent discussion. "Speculation suggests a rendition of our La-Nina like state will continue through at least JFM, but with situations having anomalous subtropical jets and possibly even episodes of strong East Asian/North Pacific Ocean jets slamming the USA west coast." The only thing we have to watch with this situation is that the snow levels tend to be higher with the subtropical feed. Snow levels will be closer to 6000 ft. starting on Christmas. There is still tons of cold air coming down from the north during this period, so as of right now it looks like all snow for us, and LOTS of it. We may be stuck in this pattern into the New Year which is what the models suggest at this time as well.
Looking at Liquid amounts for the next few storms. Thursday night shows .5-.75 at the lake and 1-1.25 on the crest. This may go up if the storm can get a feed from another storm just off the coast. Snow ratios again will be close to 20:1 so will go with 10-15 inches in town, 15-20 up high and 20-25 along the Western Crest. Sunday nights storm is looking more moist with near 2 inches of liquid but with lower snow ratios of 10:1 going to 15:1. this would be another 2 feet or more for everyone. Christmas Eve storm (which may last several days) looks very impressive right now with 3 mor inches of liquid just by Christmas Morning. If it stay all snow that is another 2-3 feet with snow continuing. So right now there is the potential for 4-5 feet by Christmas Day with 6-7 feet along the Crest. Just to our South from Sierra at Tahoe down to Mono County there is a "Bulls Eye" of 8-10 inches of liquid over the next week which equates to over 100 inches of snow.
I am not making this stuff up, these are my conservative numbers given the pattern and how the models are handling the storms at this time. Looks like maybe a short break Christmas weekend before another cold shot with more snow the following week, another short break, then more cold and snow. I will do an update of snowfall potential on tomorrow nights storm in the morning. Hope you have a good stock of wax. BA
Wed. A.M. Update....Bigger Storm Tomorrow.
Storm for tomorrow night now looks as if it will drag in some additional moisture from a storm sitting off of the coast. This could mean a heavy burst of snow Thursday night. Liquid on models close to 1" now with 20:1 snow ratios. Will have to see how much of this gets caught of on the crest. NWS has a winter storm watch in place for 1 foot at lake level and 2 ft. above 7000. Will cut back on that a little till the models come out this afternoon. Will go with 12-18 inches on the mountain by Friday evening. I will be posting a long range discussion later today. BA
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
A little break......
Snow has become spotty and showery this morning which will continue today and then end by tonight. With clear skies and snow on the ground the temps will dip below zero tonight.
Looking at snow totals around the different peaks it looks like a solid 4ft. being reported as of this morning across the entire western ridge. Northstar is reporting 2 1/2 ft. but my guess is that it was much closer to 3 or more. It can be hard to get completely accurate snow totals as some places measure once a day and then clear a clean spot to measure the next day which is the way it is supposed to be measured, and other locations just measure the total on the ground which can be inaccurate because of the settling of the snow each day and the weight being added on top crushing the snow below. Either way the models were very accurate with this storm with 3-4 ft. falling across much of tahoe and 2ft. or more in and around town.
We will get a break on Wed. before another storm moves in later in the day on Thursday. This storm is showing liquid equivalent near .5 inches, but this will be another cold storm with high snow ratios. The last storm was only 1.5-1.75 inches of liquid and look at how much snow fell. Thurs-Fri storm could drop another 10-15 inches. Will have a break on Sat. before another storm drops in on Sunday-Mon. This storm will start out warmer and then get really cold. We could be talking a couple of more feet.
We may be setting up for at least a two week pattern of being locked in the cold and having storms drop thru CA every couple of days with decent snows. I am sticking to my over 100 inches by the end of the month comment for now. Will have to watch the pattern evolve by the weekend. I have been on the East Coast since last Thurs. so I haven't even seen the snow yet, I will be back tomorrow and will discuss the long range pattern setting up and include some Ed Berry comments. BA
Looking at snow totals around the different peaks it looks like a solid 4ft. being reported as of this morning across the entire western ridge. Northstar is reporting 2 1/2 ft. but my guess is that it was much closer to 3 or more. It can be hard to get completely accurate snow totals as some places measure once a day and then clear a clean spot to measure the next day which is the way it is supposed to be measured, and other locations just measure the total on the ground which can be inaccurate because of the settling of the snow each day and the weight being added on top crushing the snow below. Either way the models were very accurate with this storm with 3-4 ft. falling across much of tahoe and 2ft. or more in and around town.
We will get a break on Wed. before another storm moves in later in the day on Thursday. This storm is showing liquid equivalent near .5 inches, but this will be another cold storm with high snow ratios. The last storm was only 1.5-1.75 inches of liquid and look at how much snow fell. Thurs-Fri storm could drop another 10-15 inches. Will have a break on Sat. before another storm drops in on Sunday-Mon. This storm will start out warmer and then get really cold. We could be talking a couple of more feet.
We may be setting up for at least a two week pattern of being locked in the cold and having storms drop thru CA every couple of days with decent snows. I am sticking to my over 100 inches by the end of the month comment for now. Will have to watch the pattern evolve by the weekend. I have been on the East Coast since last Thurs. so I haven't even seen the snow yet, I will be back tomorrow and will discuss the long range pattern setting up and include some Ed Berry comments. BA
Sunday, December 14, 2008
Sunday A.M. Update
Resorts around the area reporting from 6-12 inches from the storm already. Current radar shows the snow enhancing to our west as we speak. Snowfall should pick up in intensity as we go thru the day. Total liquid on computer models for the past day have been consistent with 1.5-1.75 inches. Just to the south of lake tahoe there is a zone that will get 2+". With snow levels crashing to 1500 ft. this evening snow ratios will remain high. Will once again bump up my snowfall projections to match the computer models. 36-48 inches in total possible by the time we get a break on Wed.
Next storm Thurs-Sat looks like less moisture as it comes down over land with current models showing .5-.75 inches of liquid. This will be a lower snow ratio storm so 6-12 inches is the call right now.
Christmas week we could begin two weeks of heavy snowstorms. Ridge will retrograde out to the magical 150w and storms will have an open door. If the pattern continues to go the way it looks right now we may have over 100 inches by the end of the month. Another update Tuesday morning with snowfall totals from around the area. Have fun and be safe!!!
Next storm Thurs-Sat looks like less moisture as it comes down over land with current models showing .5-.75 inches of liquid. This will be a lower snow ratio storm so 6-12 inches is the call right now.
Christmas week we could begin two weeks of heavy snowstorms. Ridge will retrograde out to the magical 150w and storms will have an open door. If the pattern continues to go the way it looks right now we may have over 100 inches by the end of the month. Another update Tuesday morning with snowfall totals from around the area. Have fun and be safe!!!
Friday, December 12, 2008
Friday PM Update......
So the change in the weather pattern we have been discussing for a couple of weeks is at our doorstep. It will make its arrival know with very strong winds, very cold air, and of course snow.
Looks like we are still on track with what was discussed on Wednesday. A few to up to 6 inches of fluffy snow that will blow all over on Saturday as the cold front arrives with unstable air. Looks like the winds will die down Saturday night with snow showers into Sunday. The snow should pick up in intensity Sunday night as a second storm comes down the coast enhancing the flow of moisture into the area.
Computer models earlier today were pretty consistant with 1-1.25 inches of liquid in total by Wed. Latest model tonight has us back up to 1.5-1.75 inches with the storm slowing and getting a little more moisture off of the ocean. Hopefully this is the trend. I shot low with my totals on Wed. to be safe with a guess of 1 inch of liquid by Wed. which translates to 20-30 inches of snow on the mountain. With the models consistantly a little higher all day and then even higher tonight I will notch my forecast up a little. Will go with 1.25 inches of liquid which translates to 25-38 inches of snow on the mountain. I think that 2-3 feet by the time all is said and done Wed. is a safe guess at this point and we can adjust up from there if models continue to come in wetter tomorrow. Remember this amount of snow is attributed more to the high snow ratios than actual high amounts of liquid. We would only be talking about a foot over 5 days if the temps were closer to 32 and not in the teens and 20's. This is Rockies champagne style powder. Snow levels will be below 2000 feet by Sunday.
After a break on Thurs. it still looks like another storm will arrive for the weekend with the same cold high snow ratio snows that pile up fast. Christmas week looks like some big storms could start rolling in off the ocean with lower snow ratios but lots of moisture and tons of snow. Will have to continue monitoring this situation. This is more than a week away so the model confidence can't be set too high, but it's been consistant so we could have a very snowy month all the way to the end. I'll keep you posted and adjust snow totals each day............BA
Looks like we are still on track with what was discussed on Wednesday. A few to up to 6 inches of fluffy snow that will blow all over on Saturday as the cold front arrives with unstable air. Looks like the winds will die down Saturday night with snow showers into Sunday. The snow should pick up in intensity Sunday night as a second storm comes down the coast enhancing the flow of moisture into the area.
Computer models earlier today were pretty consistant with 1-1.25 inches of liquid in total by Wed. Latest model tonight has us back up to 1.5-1.75 inches with the storm slowing and getting a little more moisture off of the ocean. Hopefully this is the trend. I shot low with my totals on Wed. to be safe with a guess of 1 inch of liquid by Wed. which translates to 20-30 inches of snow on the mountain. With the models consistantly a little higher all day and then even higher tonight I will notch my forecast up a little. Will go with 1.25 inches of liquid which translates to 25-38 inches of snow on the mountain. I think that 2-3 feet by the time all is said and done Wed. is a safe guess at this point and we can adjust up from there if models continue to come in wetter tomorrow. Remember this amount of snow is attributed more to the high snow ratios than actual high amounts of liquid. We would only be talking about a foot over 5 days if the temps were closer to 32 and not in the teens and 20's. This is Rockies champagne style powder. Snow levels will be below 2000 feet by Sunday.
After a break on Thurs. it still looks like another storm will arrive for the weekend with the same cold high snow ratio snows that pile up fast. Christmas week looks like some big storms could start rolling in off the ocean with lower snow ratios but lots of moisture and tons of snow. Will have to continue monitoring this situation. This is more than a week away so the model confidence can't be set too high, but it's been consistant so we could have a very snowy month all the way to the end. I'll keep you posted and adjust snow totals each day............BA
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Dust off the shovel & stack the wood!!!
So finally we can anticipate a big change in the weather starting Friday night. After one more mild night we will start to cool Thurs night a few degrees and then by Saturday high temps will be 20-30 degrees colder. We can definitely be sure of that and excited about round the clock snow making, till at least Wed. Lows in the teens and single digits with highs in the teens and 20’s. No more inversions with the colder temps the higher you go up.
The cold front along with its cold unstable air will generated snow showers Saturday that will only add up to a few inches of fluffy powder.
The uncertainty is the amount of snow we will get Sun-Wed with a storm that will follow the cold front. The jet stream is very amplified which means way up and way down. The jet goes into Canada, back out into the Pacific near Washington, and then back into Central California someplace over the weekend. The storm will slowly make its way off the coast near Washington on Sunday and then back thru CA by Tues. This will direct moisture over us with continuous off and on snow showers Sun-Tues. The amount depends on how far out over the water the storm goes, how fast it moves down the coast, and where exactly the jet comes back in over CA. Models disagree a little with some showing a slightly faster storm and not over the ocean as much, which is drier, and some that have a slower storm that goes out well over the ocean, which would be wetter. There will not be a significant moisture tap so snow will be light to moderate but the duration and high snow ratios could mean significant amounts.
Let’s talk some number possibilities from low to high. This will be a very cold period of snow so snow ratios will be around 15:1 at lake level, and 20:1-30:1 on the mountain. Models have shown between .5 inches of liquid up to 2.5 inches collectively over the 3 day period. He is a chart of what those numbers would be at .5, 1, 1.5, 2, & 2.5 inches from left to right.
15-1 7." 15" 22" 30" 37"
20-1 10" 20" 30" 40" 50"
30-1 15" 30" 45" 60" 75"
So as you can see with the cold temps and low moisture content of the snow it will pile up pretty fast over the period. Looks like worst case scenario on the Mtn. is 10” at the base and 15” on top. Best case scenario is over 4ft. at the base & 6+ ft. on top. I am going to go with around the 1” numbers of 20-30 inches by Wed. We’ll see if this storm can get to its full potential, it’s still early. I will update you with how much liquid models are predicting each day as we get closer.
In the extended the jet looks to flatten out a little. A small storm may affect us Thursday and then a bigger storm for the weekend that would have significant moisture to work with. We will have to wait a few more days to get a better guess on the track of that storm. It should stay cold and unsettled in general though as we go into Christmas week. Storm update on Friday as I’ll be in the air tomorrow. BA
The cold front along with its cold unstable air will generated snow showers Saturday that will only add up to a few inches of fluffy powder.
The uncertainty is the amount of snow we will get Sun-Wed with a storm that will follow the cold front. The jet stream is very amplified which means way up and way down. The jet goes into Canada, back out into the Pacific near Washington, and then back into Central California someplace over the weekend. The storm will slowly make its way off the coast near Washington on Sunday and then back thru CA by Tues. This will direct moisture over us with continuous off and on snow showers Sun-Tues. The amount depends on how far out over the water the storm goes, how fast it moves down the coast, and where exactly the jet comes back in over CA. Models disagree a little with some showing a slightly faster storm and not over the ocean as much, which is drier, and some that have a slower storm that goes out well over the ocean, which would be wetter. There will not be a significant moisture tap so snow will be light to moderate but the duration and high snow ratios could mean significant amounts.
Let’s talk some number possibilities from low to high. This will be a very cold period of snow so snow ratios will be around 15:1 at lake level, and 20:1-30:1 on the mountain. Models have shown between .5 inches of liquid up to 2.5 inches collectively over the 3 day period. He is a chart of what those numbers would be at .5, 1, 1.5, 2, & 2.5 inches from left to right.
15-1 7." 15" 22" 30" 37"
20-1 10" 20" 30" 40" 50"
30-1 15" 30" 45" 60" 75"
So as you can see with the cold temps and low moisture content of the snow it will pile up pretty fast over the period. Looks like worst case scenario on the Mtn. is 10” at the base and 15” on top. Best case scenario is over 4ft. at the base & 6+ ft. on top. I am going to go with around the 1” numbers of 20-30 inches by Wed. We’ll see if this storm can get to its full potential, it’s still early. I will update you with how much liquid models are predicting each day as we get closer.
In the extended the jet looks to flatten out a little. A small storm may affect us Thursday and then a bigger storm for the weekend that would have significant moisture to work with. We will have to wait a few more days to get a better guess on the track of that storm. It should stay cold and unsettled in general though as we go into Christmas week. Storm update on Friday as I’ll be in the air tomorrow. BA
Tuesday, December 9, 2008
Udate
Here is the link from the NWS for their special weather statement regarding the upcoming cold & snow.
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?wfo=rev&sid=rev&pil=sps
Will trend temps down a couple of degrees once again tonight and tomorrow night. May squeek by just getting down to 32 degrees at 8000 ft. the next two nights. Clear sailing from there. Temps this weekend look to be highs in the 20's and lows in the 10's in town, and highs in the 10's and low in the the single digits up high. Latest computer output for precip this weekend is around .5 inches of liquid. with snow to water ratios possibly around 20:1 we could get 6-10 inches on the mountains thru Tuesday of very light and fluffy powder. Storm Tuesday is trending towards coming onshore in SoCal. I am watching Thursdays storm, it looks like a better track.
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?wfo=rev&sid=rev&pil=sps
Will trend temps down a couple of degrees once again tonight and tomorrow night. May squeek by just getting down to 32 degrees at 8000 ft. the next two nights. Clear sailing from there. Temps this weekend look to be highs in the 20's and lows in the 10's in town, and highs in the 10's and low in the the single digits up high. Latest computer output for precip this weekend is around .5 inches of liquid. with snow to water ratios possibly around 20:1 we could get 6-10 inches on the mountains thru Tuesday of very light and fluffy powder. Storm Tuesday is trending towards coming onshore in SoCal. I am watching Thursdays storm, it looks like a better track.
Monday, December 8, 2008
We're Almost There!
Not any changes to speak of. Cold tonight, should be in the 20’s from top to bottom. Ridge moves back in for Tues-Thurs and creates more mildish (it continues to be a few degrees colder everyday than models are forecasting) weather with big inversions. Lows should not go below freezing for two nights above 7000 ft. Thursday night a storm comes down inside of us and helps to begin pushing the ridge offshore. This is now possible because the low pressure helping to for the Rex Block kicked out across the country over the weekend. Temps should be in the 20’s again top to bottom Thursday and Friday night.
During the day on Saturday an Arctic front moves thru from north to south ushering in the coldest air of the season. This will erase inversions and temps will finally be colder the higher you go instead of warmer. As the ridge moves out to 140w we will be stuck in the cold at least until the middle of next week if not much longer. Storm is coming down over land for the weekend, but the air will be so cold it will be very unstable and snowshowers should persist thru the weekend. Snow levels will be very low, well below 5000 ft. so lots of powdery snow piling up fast but only up to maybe 6 inches over the weekend.
Ridge looks to continue migrating at towards 150w next week with the chance for significant snowfall Tues & again Thurs. I will get into more details about accumulations for the weekend and next week on Wed. BA
During the day on Saturday an Arctic front moves thru from north to south ushering in the coldest air of the season. This will erase inversions and temps will finally be colder the higher you go instead of warmer. As the ridge moves out to 140w we will be stuck in the cold at least until the middle of next week if not much longer. Storm is coming down over land for the weekend, but the air will be so cold it will be very unstable and snowshowers should persist thru the weekend. Snow levels will be very low, well below 5000 ft. so lots of powdery snow piling up fast but only up to maybe 6 inches over the weekend.
Ridge looks to continue migrating at towards 150w next week with the chance for significant snowfall Tues & again Thurs. I will get into more details about accumulations for the weekend and next week on Wed. BA
Saturday, December 6, 2008
Saturday Update.....
Marginal snowmaking again tonight up high with big inversions and much colder in the valleys. Storm is coming down inside of us Sunday night and will bring colder air. Inversions will not be as strong Sunday & Monday nights and temps will be in the 20's to up over 7500 ft. The ridge moves back in one last time Tuesday-Thurs. Will be hard to get below freezing above 7000 ft. Low humidity will be our best friend once again. Will cool a few degrees Thursday night and a few more Friday night, with inversions disapearing as a huge arctic trough gets ready to crash in from the north.
Models aren't sure whether the trough comes down just off the coast over water and brings us significant snow along with the cold or over land with just snow showers. They are leaning towards the over land idea right now. Will get into more details in a couple of days when the storm track is better defined and we can start looking at snow amounts.
Not trusting the models beyond a week right now, but they do show several storms and the cold locking in place thru the extended. Have had better luck reading Ed Berry's take on the extended atmospheric patterns. Here's his summary from today's discussion.
" Models have now generally caught on to what some would describe as a large amplitude reverse/negative phase of the PNA teleconnection by week-2. I think it is probable this situation may persist the rest of this month per above. As discussed in past postings, particularly weeks 2-4 there should be episodes of significant precipitation along the USA west coast associated with “cold” digging troughs!"
He has plenty of examples of why this should be the case and I will get into those as well as give an update on how next weekends cold and snow is shaping up. It only gets better from here. Keep praying, it's working........BA
Models aren't sure whether the trough comes down just off the coast over water and brings us significant snow along with the cold or over land with just snow showers. They are leaning towards the over land idea right now. Will get into more details in a couple of days when the storm track is better defined and we can start looking at snow amounts.
Not trusting the models beyond a week right now, but they do show several storms and the cold locking in place thru the extended. Have had better luck reading Ed Berry's take on the extended atmospheric patterns. Here's his summary from today's discussion.
" Models have now generally caught on to what some would describe as a large amplitude reverse/negative phase of the PNA teleconnection by week-2. I think it is probable this situation may persist the rest of this month per above. As discussed in past postings, particularly weeks 2-4 there should be episodes of significant precipitation along the USA west coast associated with “cold” digging troughs!"
He has plenty of examples of why this should be the case and I will get into those as well as give an update on how next weekends cold and snow is shaping up. It only gets better from here. Keep praying, it's working........BA
Thursday, December 4, 2008
Exorcising the Rex Hex.
We have gotten really lucky the past couple nights as some storms coming down to our East thru the Rockies have kept the wind coming from the NE rather than the NW. This has allowed us to be a little colder than was expected and we have had marginal snowmaking temps. There have been some big inversions, but 15 degrees in the valley and then the upper 20’s to just above freezing as you go up the mountain. We should get one more night tonight similar to the past two. Then it looks like the temps will struggle to get below freezing above 7000 feet for Friday and Saturday night as the ridge moves in off of the ocean and the winds switch.
There is a lot of buzz this morning in the weather world about the possible pattern change. This is most likely because the weather models have started to show the changes I talked about on Monday. The Rex Block will gradually start to make its westward shift starting next week. The initial impacts will be felt starting Sunday night as we begin to lose the inversions. The temps won’t be all that cold, 28-32 degrees at night, but it will be the same temp from the valleys up. As we go thru the week the temps should gradually start to cool.
If we keep praying and the Rex keeps shifting West, true Arctic air may finally be able to come in for the week of the 14th. The Rex Block can actually be our friend if it sets up out at about 150 longitude, and the northern branch of the Jet gets fueled and goes up and over into CA. Ed Berry talked about the westward retrogression of the ridge in Monday’s post and now I can see it happening on the models. Still won’t get excited about storms but they are on the models for the week going into Christmas. I’ll get into more details if the models can be consistent thru Monday. BA
There is a lot of buzz this morning in the weather world about the possible pattern change. This is most likely because the weather models have started to show the changes I talked about on Monday. The Rex Block will gradually start to make its westward shift starting next week. The initial impacts will be felt starting Sunday night as we begin to lose the inversions. The temps won’t be all that cold, 28-32 degrees at night, but it will be the same temp from the valleys up. As we go thru the week the temps should gradually start to cool.
If we keep praying and the Rex keeps shifting West, true Arctic air may finally be able to come in for the week of the 14th. The Rex Block can actually be our friend if it sets up out at about 150 longitude, and the northern branch of the Jet gets fueled and goes up and over into CA. Ed Berry talked about the westward retrogression of the ridge in Monday’s post and now I can see it happening on the models. Still won’t get excited about storms but they are on the models for the week going into Christmas. I’ll get into more details if the models can be consistent thru Monday. BA
Monday, December 1, 2008
"Wicked Ridge of the West"
After a big start we finished Nov. with 81% of normal precip and 2.5 degrees above normal. That is the first time since 2002 that we had over 50% of normal precip in Nov. We had 3 inches of snow in town. The only time we ever had more than a foot of snow in the past 10 years is Nov. 2003 when we got 14 inches, which all fell on the first day of the month. We have averaged about 1.4 degrees above normal for Nov. over the past 10 years. These figures are kept for the town of Truckee.
We normally don’t get cold and snowy till the Boreal Winter season kicks in the third week of December. Last year I had run figures that showed over the past 10 years in each month Dec-Feb we have averaged a few degrees below normal.
I had a conversation with one of the meteorologists with the National Weather Service this week about the upcoming winter and our prospects for getting out of what he even referred to as “The Wicked Ridge of the West from Hell”. Let me quote his response to me. “What I will be monitoring is for convection to initially intensify across S. Africa then shift into the SW and central Indian Ocean during the next few weeks. Tropical forcing then may become focussed ~80-120E as part of a quasi-stationary state. I think one of the better possible scenarios for the west coast is continued retrogression (as a response) such that cold troughs may then dig to your west by mid-late December.”
I will get into details about the next 10 days of weather at the bottom but to save you time a quick summary, Sunny with Big Inversions.
I want to focus on the middle of December forward. There is a lot of discussion going on about the retrogression of the ridge going into the middle of the month. The tropical forcing as per above should cause the ridge to retrograde out to about 140 longitude by the middle of next week. 150 is the magical spot for storms. 140 will allow the cold being seen by most of the country to be able to start spilling back into the West. The coldest airmass so far this season is set to pour into the middle of the country the middle of next week. If this retrogression pans out hopefully we can get our hands on some of that.
What could follow for the second half of December is summed up well in this paraphrase from Ed Berry’s atmospheric discussion from Saturday. “By the latter half of December suggests a continued westward shift of the ridge perhaps to 150W and troughs initially impacting the USA West Coast. The latter should bring welcome precipitation to hopefully most of the West Coast (be patient out there – good things come to people who wait!). What is unclear is what’s in store for JFM; however, a rendition of what was observed during the winter of 2007-08 with added subtropical westerly wind flow may be an option.” That would mean last years non-stop snow Jan-March on steroids. This option has been in the cards for a couple of months already.
The next ten days will feature a storm brushing us to the north and cooling us by ten degrees as compared to today, for the rest of the week. Temps will be cold in the valleys but strong inversions will form. High pressure takes back over for the weekend which should warm us a few degrees. It gets a lot more interesting there after. Keep praying, I’ll be the first to let you know about cold and snow. I do see storms on the models for the week of the 14th, but that is to be thrown in the trash right now as the models are not to be completely trusted until we get into true winter. BA
We normally don’t get cold and snowy till the Boreal Winter season kicks in the third week of December. Last year I had run figures that showed over the past 10 years in each month Dec-Feb we have averaged a few degrees below normal.
I had a conversation with one of the meteorologists with the National Weather Service this week about the upcoming winter and our prospects for getting out of what he even referred to as “The Wicked Ridge of the West from Hell”. Let me quote his response to me. “What I will be monitoring is for convection to initially intensify across S. Africa then shift into the SW and central Indian Ocean during the next few weeks. Tropical forcing then may become focussed ~80-120E as part of a quasi-stationary state. I think one of the better possible scenarios for the west coast is continued retrogression (as a response) such that cold troughs may then dig to your west by mid-late December.”
I will get into details about the next 10 days of weather at the bottom but to save you time a quick summary, Sunny with Big Inversions.
I want to focus on the middle of December forward. There is a lot of discussion going on about the retrogression of the ridge going into the middle of the month. The tropical forcing as per above should cause the ridge to retrograde out to about 140 longitude by the middle of next week. 150 is the magical spot for storms. 140 will allow the cold being seen by most of the country to be able to start spilling back into the West. The coldest airmass so far this season is set to pour into the middle of the country the middle of next week. If this retrogression pans out hopefully we can get our hands on some of that.
What could follow for the second half of December is summed up well in this paraphrase from Ed Berry’s atmospheric discussion from Saturday. “By the latter half of December suggests a continued westward shift of the ridge perhaps to 150W and troughs initially impacting the USA West Coast. The latter should bring welcome precipitation to hopefully most of the West Coast (be patient out there – good things come to people who wait!). What is unclear is what’s in store for JFM; however, a rendition of what was observed during the winter of 2007-08 with added subtropical westerly wind flow may be an option.” That would mean last years non-stop snow Jan-March on steroids. This option has been in the cards for a couple of months already.
The next ten days will feature a storm brushing us to the north and cooling us by ten degrees as compared to today, for the rest of the week. Temps will be cold in the valleys but strong inversions will form. High pressure takes back over for the weekend which should warm us a few degrees. It gets a lot more interesting there after. Keep praying, I’ll be the first to let you know about cold and snow. I do see storms on the models for the week of the 14th, but that is to be thrown in the trash right now as the models are not to be completely trusted until we get into true winter. BA
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