Saturday, December 6, 2008

Saturday Update.....

Marginal snowmaking again tonight up high with big inversions and much colder in the valleys. Storm is coming down inside of us Sunday night and will bring colder air. Inversions will not be as strong Sunday & Monday nights and temps will be in the 20's to up over 7500 ft. The ridge moves back in one last time Tuesday-Thurs. Will be hard to get below freezing above 7000 ft. Low humidity will be our best friend once again. Will cool a few degrees Thursday night and a few more Friday night, with inversions disapearing as a huge arctic trough gets ready to crash in from the north.

Models aren't sure whether the trough comes down just off the coast over water and brings us significant snow along with the cold or over land with just snow showers. They are leaning towards the over land idea right now. Will get into more details in a couple of days when the storm track is better defined and we can start looking at snow amounts.

Not trusting the models beyond a week right now, but they do show several storms and the cold locking in place thru the extended. Have had better luck reading Ed Berry's take on the extended atmospheric patterns. Here's his summary from today's discussion.

" Models have now generally caught on to what some would describe as a large amplitude reverse/negative phase of the PNA teleconnection by week-2. I think it is probable this situation may persist the rest of this month per above. As discussed in past postings, particularly weeks 2-4 there should be episodes of significant precipitation along the USA west coast associated with “cold” digging troughs!"

He has plenty of examples of why this should be the case and I will get into those as well as give an update on how next weekends cold and snow is shaping up. It only gets better from here. Keep praying, it's working........BA

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