Friday, December 12, 2008

Friday PM Update......

So the change in the weather pattern we have been discussing for a couple of weeks is at our doorstep. It will make its arrival know with very strong winds, very cold air, and of course snow.

Looks like we are still on track with what was discussed on Wednesday. A few to up to 6 inches of fluffy snow that will blow all over on Saturday as the cold front arrives with unstable air. Looks like the winds will die down Saturday night with snow showers into Sunday. The snow should pick up in intensity Sunday night as a second storm comes down the coast enhancing the flow of moisture into the area.

Computer models earlier today were pretty consistant with 1-1.25 inches of liquid in total by Wed. Latest model tonight has us back up to 1.5-1.75 inches with the storm slowing and getting a little more moisture off of the ocean. Hopefully this is the trend. I shot low with my totals on Wed. to be safe with a guess of 1 inch of liquid by Wed. which translates to 20-30 inches of snow on the mountain. With the models consistantly a little higher all day and then even higher tonight I will notch my forecast up a little. Will go with 1.25 inches of liquid which translates to 25-38 inches of snow on the mountain. I think that 2-3 feet by the time all is said and done Wed. is a safe guess at this point and we can adjust up from there if models continue to come in wetter tomorrow. Remember this amount of snow is attributed more to the high snow ratios than actual high amounts of liquid. We would only be talking about a foot over 5 days if the temps were closer to 32 and not in the teens and 20's. This is Rockies champagne style powder. Snow levels will be below 2000 feet by Sunday.

After a break on Thurs. it still looks like another storm will arrive for the weekend with the same cold high snow ratio snows that pile up fast. Christmas week looks like some big storms could start rolling in off the ocean with lower snow ratios but lots of moisture and tons of snow. Will have to continue monitoring this situation. This is more than a week away so the model confidence can't be set too high, but it's been consistant so we could have a very snowy month all the way to the end. I'll keep you posted and adjust snow totals each day............BA

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