Sunday, December 21, 2008

Sun. P.M. Update on snowstorms, There are plenty.........

Sorry for the delay in writing, was having some technical issues with the computer models.

So the warm front ahead of the main storm came thru this morning with wet snow that really didn't accumulate to much and it raised the snow levels to over 6500 feet. This is not the main storm. The cold front that will bring us the snow is just now entering North West CA. Snow should be on the increase heading into tonight and then it should dump as the cold front comes across us in the early morning hours. Snow will continue into Monday night as another small storm brings several more inches. Snow ratios will start at 10:1 then drop to 15:1 in town and 20:1 up high. Snow levels will fall below 3000 ft. as temps drop to around 20 up high and mid 20's in town. Highs will only be in the 20's everywhere tomorrow. Total liquid by Tuesday morning looks to be around .75-1 inch over the Tahoe area. Will go with 15:1 snow ratios as an avg. on the mountain which equates to 12-18 inches by Tuesday, with about 6-10 in Town, and 18-24 along the crest. Warm temps made a good base today so this will be base builder wet snow turning to fluffy powder by Monday.

Christmas Eve storm now looks to slide down the coast. Some models have it coming close enough to bring about .5 inches of liquid, so about 6 inches of snow. Others have it staying offshore and then coming in over SoCal and only bringing us some light snow showers if anything. Storm has lots of moisture with it so we will have to closely watch the track.

Christmas storm still looks cold and a little wetter than the past two days. Latest model this afternoon has about 2-3 inches of liquid with it. It will be a cold storm so could bring anywhere from 2-4 feet on the mountains and 1-2 feet in town. Will have to watch this closely because those amounts are because the model is showing us in a favorabe left exit region of the jet stream with this which could change if the track is a little different. Either way this week looks cold and snowy with at least 2 feet to as much as 5+ feet on the mountains by Friday with temps in the 20's all week.

Next weekend still on track for sunny and a little warmer with temps in the 30's. In the extended New Years week looks very cold and snowy with storms taking more of an over water path and tapping some subtropical moisture. That could be an interesting week. No signs of a ridge as far as I can see. Will update on Tuesday with snow totals from the storm and a beter handle on snow amounts expected from the two storms over Christmas. BA

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