Sunday, December 18, 2011

Storms Starting to Show on Long-Range Forecast Models

We continue blowing snow and opening new terrain with the cold temperatures at night.  We will see continued dry weather this week as the ridge of high pressure stays anchored off the coast blocking all storm activity.  We will have cold nights and cool days this week with lows in the teens and highs in the 40's, with inversions at the higher elevations. 

We will see a little activity on Thursday when another shot of cold air drops into the Western U.S. just to our East.  That trough did have the potential to bring a light dusting but it looks like it will now stay dry.  We will see a little wind and colder temps for Thursday with highs only in the 30's.  We will warm back into the 40's for the holiday weekend.

Next week looks quiet as well as the ridge off the coast pushes inland over CA.  The pattern will begin to change next week as storms start to push into the Pacific NW up near Washington.  As we go towards New Years the jet stream and storm track will start to push further South down the coast.

When looking out more than a week it is better to look at overall pattern and not a specific storm.  The current pattern looks like it will continue to change going into the New Year.  Looking at some of the teleconnection patterns over the Arctic it appears that some Arctic air will push down the Coast the begginning of January.  That would also push the storm track South towards CA.

The forecast models are starting to show a storm around or just after the New Year.  For now we will have to rely on snowmaking as we wait for the pattern change to take place.  Stay tuned for continued updates as we watch for when the big snows will arrive.  BA

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