Friday, December 16, 2011

Beautiful Weather Continues

The weather over the next 10 day looks like it is going to remain pretty tranquil.  The temperatures will be in the 30's on the mountain with lows in the 20's at night.  The dry air actually makes for optimum snowmaking conditions.  The natural snow will return as the tranquil weather can't last forever.

The forecast models are showing a pattern change starting to take place in about 10 days.  The ridge of high pressure just off the coast has been pushing all of the storms up into Western Canada.  The trough we need along the West Coast for snow has been centered up near the Aluetian Islands with the jet stream coming underneather into Wester Canada.

It looks like as we go into the last week of the month the trough may shift into the Gulf of Alaska.  That would shift the jet stream further South down the coast into the Pacific NW.  In the long-range the models are not as accurate, but they have been consistent in showing the ridge continuing to flatten the last week of the month with jetstream pushing further South and storm activity returning.

There is some stratospheric warming beginning to take place near the Arctic.  If that continues towards the end of the month we should see an Arctic outbreak of cold push into the West.  That could help to drive the trough down the West coast.  I've never seen a snow drought last more than 6 weeks so we should see this pattern flip by the end of the month and going into January.

In Tahoe it only takes one week of the Westerlies breaking through and dumping on us to get us a significant snowpack.  Stay tuned as we continue to monitor any signs of significant snowfall returning.  Meanwhile enjoy the beautiful weather and fresh snow from the snow guns as we continue to expand terrain.  BA

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