Wednesday, December 7, 2011

More Active Weather Beginning This Weekend

We have been stuck with the ridge of high pressure off the coast now for 2 weeks keeping the storms away from CA.  The good news has been the cold shots of air coming down from Canada that has allowed for good snowmaking conditions.  Beginning this weekend and go forward the pattern should become more active with the chances for snow increasing.

There is not really anything in the overall weather pattern to create blocking or locking in a pattern over the next couple of weeks.  We will see a very progressive pattern of troughs and ridges bringing the chance for snow with the troughs.  This will be a nice change from the constant ridge we have had.

The ridge that has been sitting off the coast will shift East as another ridge forms further West in the Pacific around 160w this weekend.  The ridge will then move East towards a position off the coast again, but in between we will see a cold trough dive down the coast Sunday and Monday.

The cold is for sure but the exact track of the wave that will split off of the trough is not.  It looks like we will see some light snow Sunday night as the cold front moves through and then we will have to watch the low that splits off and comes down the coast.  Some of the models bring it down to our West and then inland over Tahoe on Monday bringing more light snow and other bring it in to our South missing us.

It looks like the ridge will move back in the Pacific again the middle of next week allowing another storm to dive in from the Northeast Pacific on Thursday.  This would bring a shot at slightly more snow.  The latest GFS forecast model run showed the possibility of high pressure forming in the Gulf of Alaska and supressing the jetstream South with this storm which would bring a much bigger storm so we will have to watch that.

This progressive pattern looks to continue with more storms possible the weekend of the 17th and into the week before Christmas.  As the jetstream continues to strengthen and the jetstream flattens across the Pacific the storms should pick up some more moisture and bring bigger snowfalls later in the month.

The good news is that the pattern will be turning more interesting.  Chances of light snow beginning this weekend and chances for bigger snows the following weekend.  Stay tuned....BA

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