Saturday, November 5, 2011

Round 2....

Since the mountain isn't open yet we have not received the official snowfall from yesterday's storm.  Estimating from webcams I would say we picked up around 8 inches at the base lodge and close to a foot at the summit.

Just as the skies are clearing from the first storm the clouds are approaching for storm number 2.  We should see the snow begin falling this evening and continue overnight.  Snow showers may linger into the day on Sunday.  I am expecting that we pick up similar totals from what we saw with the first storm.  That means we should have close to a foot for a 3 day total at the base and 18 inches or more at the summit.

The ridge that has been sitting out in the Pacific around 150w 40n is going to surge North and cut off the next storm that is approaching from the jetstream. That will create a cut-off low that will spiral down the West coast during the week.  The question has been when and where does this low come inland. I could get you excited one day and disappointed the next as the models change their mind becuase since these storms are cut off from the main flow and nothing is steering them it's almost impossible to forecast their path.

Currently we have a split decision with the GFS currently bringing the low into Southern CA and missing us and the Euro and Japanese models bringing it in to Central CA. We just have to wait and watch this very closely. The when seems clearer as there is another cold front and weak storm very similar to the ones this weekend dropping down the coast next weekend that will push the cut-off low inland starting Friday. So if the current GFS is right and the low comes in to the South we just get more cold and light snow. If some other runs of the GFS from yesterday and the other models are right then we could have a merge of the cut-off low, which will have a lot of moisture by then, and the cold front from the North right over Tahoe next weekend.

If that happens we could be talking 2-3 feet of snow, but PLEASE don't say BA said we're are getting 2-3 feet next weekend. It could be a total miss but it could also come together just right like the Euro is showing and the Euro has a better track record in the long-range during the Fall. I will be tracking this closely all week.

After next weekend the ridge is forecasted to stay out around 150w. You can see up top and on the sidebar that the teleconnections stay favorable for a Western trough with the -PNA and the MJO looping around into the Western Pacific. The shots of cold with light snowfall pattern could continue into the 3rd week of the month.  While all of this is happening we should be continuing to make snow so opening day is looking good right now.

Stay tuned.....BA

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