Sunday, November 6, 2011

Cold & Snowy Pattern to Resume Next Weekend...

We ended up getting less snow than forecasted as the cold front fell apart as it hit the Sierra.  There were no good orographics and we basically just got some light snow showers.  We picked up an inch or two at the base and maybe 3-4 inches up top.  Good news is that the snow guns continue to crank.

Snow Showers will continue today with cold temperatures in place but only expecting light accumulations. We will stay cold through Tuesday with highs only in the 30's and lows in the teens at the base and the 20's up top. Snowmaking should continue in full force.

Then as a cut-off lows spins down the coast it will draw up some warmer air Wednesday and Thursday with temps up into the 40's and close to 50 in the Village on Thursday. We are going to continue to play this back and forth game with the cut-off low as today all the models bring it into Southern CA as a miss to us.

I think that we still have plenty of fun ahead without the cut-off so lets just pretend that it doesn't exist for now and look at the pattern next weekend. We have another cold storm diving down the coast bringing lots of cold air and this one has the potential to tap some decent moisture from off the ocean.  It's less than what we saw yesterday with the possible merge with the cut-off, but if it comes down over water instead of land we could measure in feet not inches.

Either way it looks like another cold and snowy weekend on tap for next weekend. The ridge looks like it will continue to sit out North of Hawaii and it's stuck there with the ridge in the East and the ridge in Asia. The PNA forecast stays negative as well so I think that we are stuck in this cold and snowy pattern until about Thanksgiving.

Like I said with my winter forecast the main highlight of this winter should be cold and that cold will fluff our snow giving us the possibility of breaking the average snowfall. But that means lots of fluffy powder so although we will get lots of cold and some snow here in November it really won't help with base building. It should mean that there is plenty of snowmaking to be open on time, but i wouldn't suggest going in the trees just yet.

Looking at the super long-range we should see more cold storms drop down the coast with one the week of the 13th and another by the following weekend and the next right before Thanksgiving. So for now cold and snowy is the word for November. There are no really big storms on the horizon though, I think those will hold off until Winter. Once we hit January and February we should see this same sort of pattern but with colder air and bigger storms.
Stay tuned.....BA

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