Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Fire Up the Guns....

The cold front blasted through today and now it is cold.  The highs on the mountain tomorrow will be in the 20's which means around the clock snowmaking.  Temperatures will stay cold through the weekend.

We are going to be in the cold dry pattern here for a little while so we will make the best of the cold and watch the terrain expand.  We have a second shot of some colder air on Saturday and then it will warm slightly into the 40's to start next week. 

We will stay in a similar pattern next week with another cold trough coming down from Canada around mid-week bringing more cold and possibly some light snow.  That pattern will continue with consecutive shots of cold into the following weekend.

In order to get some snow into CA we are waiting for the pattern to change.  Currently there is a large area of high pressure spinning off the Pacfic NW coast sending storms coming across the Pacific ocean up into Alaska and Canada.  This is common in a positive PNA (Pacific North American) teleconnection pattern which we are currently in.

Forecasts continue to show the PNA trending back towards negative around mid-month which would favor a trough off the West Coast and opening the storm door.  Right now we will have to wait and watch the pattern evolve.

Looking at the forecast models they do show the ridge of high pressure in the Pacific shifting back from 130w in the Pacific to 140w by the 7th and then 150w by the 12th.  The further back the ridge moves the easier it is for storms to drop down off the West Coast and then into CA.  If the ridge moves back past 150w then the storm door really starts to open.

Right now it looks like things will become more favorable for snowfall beyond mid-month.  I would expect that as the jetstream continues to strengthen in the Pacific it will push further South down the Coast.  The closer we get to true Winter the more snow that should begin to make its way into Tahoe.

Dont' forget that some of the bigger snowfall seasons in history didn't start until January.  07-08 comes to mind as a recent season that didn't see much snow until January and then had above average snowpack by February.  BA

No comments: