Not too much to go over today. The MJO managed to go through the cycle in the perfect pattern to bring a break through of big storms, but the westerlies have not been able to break under the ridge as of yet. A few model runs over the weekend suggested a break through of storms next week, but the majority still favor a continued ridge.
Other than that we have a negative NAO and positive PNA pattern. That means the ridge will sit along or near the West Coast blocking any storms for the time being and will bring nice weather.
It has been over 3 weeks now since the last storm. It looks like we will finish January with less than 12 inches of snow at the resort. Even with the dry month we still have an above average snowpack, and most of CA is still 100-200% above average for precip.
This weekend we may see an inside slider storm that would bring some colder air and maybe a snow shower or two. As we go into the first week of February the NAO is forecasted to go positive which will hopefully allow the trough to move off the East coast. The PNA is forecasted to stay positive but hopefully we can see some retrogression or weakening of the ridge by the end of next week that would allow some storms to dive in. No sign of a big storm yet, but I doubt February will be as dry as January. Stay tuned....BA