Wednesday, January 26, 2011

Rubber Band........

I am beginning to feel more confident that we are going to see some changes here over the next 2 weeks. We will still have to be a little more patient but good things will come to those who wait.

The MJO has not helped us here in the +PNA pattern, but just to show you I wasn't crazy here is a quote from the CPC MJO discussion on Monday. "Forecast MJO phases are also consistent with extension of the Pacific jet stream during the Week-2 period, but this is currently at odds with current numerical guidance." Basically, the phase and strength of the MJO over the past 2 weeks normally is consistent with the jetstream slamming CA by this week or next week, but the models show nada.

The MJO will first cause a ridge to build off the coast and then it will normally retrograde North or West allowing the jetstream into the West Coast. The MJO may have been the cause of this +PNA pattern and only hurt us not helped us this time. Jot that down in your weather notes for the next time we have a strong La Nina.

Weather has been described as a rubber band meaning that it pulls one way and then snaps back. Like all the cold in the East over the past month thanks to the -AO & NAO. That will eventually snap back and the pattern will flip. Most meteorologists thought that would happen in January, and they have been amazed at the length & strength of the cold in the East. Especially since this is a La Nina and that is not the normal pattern throughout La Nina winter. So everything is now on our side logically for a flip to cold and storms on the West Coast.

One of the things that will help is the PNA going negative again. Take a look at the forecast. 2nd week of February it could be back where we want it. The AO is already positive which will cut back on the flow of Arctic air being displaced Southward, & the NAO is beginning its climb back towards postive. That should all work together to change the overall pattern which should begin over the next 2 weeks.

What I do see in the models is the ridge trying to build further West next week and then further North week 2. I hate to say that I still don't see any storms on the horizon for the next 2 weeks, but it can't stay dry forever. I think the teleconnections are heading more in our favor over the next 2 weeks and that we will see a flip by mid-February. Stay tuned......BA

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