Wednesday, November 17, 2010

On Track.........

Update 4 p.m......

NWS just posted a Winter Storm Watch for 1-2 feet at lake level and 2-4 feet above 7000 by Sunday afternoon. That doesn't include the snow showers Monday & storm Tuesday. Looks like 1-3 feet at lake level and 2-5 feet above 7000 is on track by Tuesday. Hope you're ready!

From This Morning.....

We're getting closer, and things are on track for a significant snowstorm. It is not just the strength of the storm that will make it so impressive, it's the duration and the very low temps that will pile up the snow.

Snow piles up twice as fast at 20 degrees than it does at 32 degrees. 2" of liquid at 32 degrees is 20 inches but at 20 degrees it is 40 inches & 15 degrees it's 50 inches. So even though 2-3 inches of liquid with this storm is not an extreme amount, the temps above 7500 ft. will be at 15-20 degrees for most of the storm. That means snow ratios on top of the mountains will be running at 20-25:1. Snow ratios in the Village will be 12:1, but by Sunday & Monday night we could see 25:1 snow ratios down here as well.

The storm will come in several waves. The first will come Friday night in the form of a cold front that drops the snow levels well below lake level. Then Saturday night the snow increases in intensity again as the main low really starts to draw in moisture off the ocean. The main low passes over us Sunday with snow showers lingering into Monday. Today all models have a final piece of energy diving in Tuesday. The Euro and the NOGAPS models have a bullseye of 3-4 inches of liquid over Tahoe by Tuesday night. The GFS is a little weaker with the final piece on Tuesday so we are at 2-3 inches with them.

The wild card in all of this is the time of day the heaviest snow falls and where the snow bands setup between the waves. The snow is going to pile up twice as fast at night. Using the latest model runs this morning we are still looking at lowest end 18 inches in the Village with up to an extreme of 3 feet. Above 7000 ft. minimum of 2 ft. and an extreme of 5 feet. What would push us to the extreme would be the Tuesday storm. 2-3 feet by Monday and if the Tuesday storm takes the right track over us add a foot. If it slides inside of us add only a few more inches.

We will re-analyze again tomorrow, stay tuned........BA

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