Update 5 p.m.:
NWS now hoisted a Winter Storm Warning for 1-3 feet at lake level and 3-5 feet above 7000 ft. by Sunday. Finally up to my original guestimate from last weekend. That is an increase from this morning as the models are consisitent with 2-3 inches of liquid with high snow:water ratios. Below is an interesting quote by the NWS this afternoon, I have never heard them say this before:
"ONE FINAL NOTE...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS KNOWN TO PRODUCE SOME OF THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS ON RECORD IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. SO AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS...LIQUID FORECAST AMOUNTS MAY SLOWLY INCREASE AND THUS ANY OF THE TOTALS ABOVE COULD END UP BEING HIGHER."
Feeling more confident in the chances of reaching 5 feet on the summit.
More snow expeced Sunday night into Monday, how much is in question. Several inches or more on top of these amounts won't make much difference.
From This Morning:
Models this morning show the storm missing us to the North with just a sunny weekend ahead.
Just Kidding....Models have changed a little but I think you'll still like the forecast. Hope you have all read the Winter Storm Watch posted by the NWS. Makes me feel better when I'm not the only one throwing out big numbers.
If you look at a satellite of the Eastern Pacific today you can see the storm off the Canadian coast with a tight spiral and cold front draped down through Oregon. That has the winds already howling this morning so you will start to get the sense something is brewing today. The cold front is a slow mover though so we won't see the snow start until probably tomorrow night.
Main change to the forecast is to increase the snowfall over the weekend and lower it the beginning of next week. Net affect of that is we are still getting the same amount, just faster. Snow amounts with the initial cold front look a little higher tomorrow night into Saturday. 6-12 inches in the Village lake level & 1-2 feet above 7000.
Then after possibly a brief let up in intensity Saturday the main low comes in Saturday night into Sunday and dumps on us. Heavy snow and high snow ratios means we double down by Sunday. That brings the totals to 1-2 feet in the Village and 2-4 feet above 7000.
That isn't the end. Most models have one more wave moving through Sunday night into Monday. That could drop anywhere from several more inches to a foot on top of the already impressive totals. That brings potential storm totals of 1.5 - 3 feet in the Village and 2.5 - 5 feet above 7000. I think that 5 would only be a summit possibility. The wild card right now is to see how much we can get from the Sunday night and Tuesday storms.
The snow looks to end by Monday night, with the Tuesday storm now looking like an inside slider. I wouldn't expect much if the storm takes the track suggested this morning, except maybe some light snow showers. Better chance in Western Nevada.
The weather clears and we warm a little for the Thanksgiving Holiday. It is going to be great conditions for skiing and riding. Probably the best in 8 or more years. Temps at nigh with the snow on the ground could hit single digits, with Truckee possibly going below zero. That will make it take a lot longer to warm during the day and the snow guns can fire up. They may still need to because this is very powdery snow so it will pack down a lot.
NAO is forecast to start trending positive by the beginning of December. That should mean the blocking weakens and is only in affect for about a week. We may see storms return as early as the 28th or just after. Stay tuned.......BA