Saturday, December 12, 2009


Don't you love surprises?

Heavy band of snow stayed over Tahoe last night producing more than double the anticipated totals! Northstar is reporting 8-13 inches in the last 24 hours, for totals of 9-15 inches the past 36 hours! At lake level the temps were above freezing yesterday and overnight so the snow didn't accumulate quite as fast. I got about 4 inches here on the North shore of the lake for a total of 5 with the storms. E-mail me more totals from your house on the Home site.

This is just the beginning. The biggest in the series of storms moves in this afternoon into tonight. An additional wave now looks to swing in behind this one tomorrow morning keeping snow going in to Sunday evening. Models this morning showing 1.5-2 inches of liquid over Tahoe. Snow ratios will start low with the warmer snow but rise tonight. Looking at an average snow ratio around 12:1 at lake level so 18-24 additional inches of snow in the Village, and 15:1 above 7000 ft. so 2-3 feet of additional snow on the upper half of the mountain.  That would put Northstar at 3-4 feet of total snow in the 3 day period ending Sunday night! This could put Northstar at over 100" of snow on the season and it's not even winter yet!

Weak ridge builds in on Monday, but now looks as if it won't be strong enough to prevent a storm from affecting us on Tuesday into Wednesday. This storm would be warmer with snow levels below lake level slowly rising towards 7000 ft. Models don't agree on how much energy breaks through the ridge but if the GFS has been right the past 24 hours we could add another foot to the mountain.

Bit of a break second half of the week. Models have been pretty consistent the past couple of days in suggesting a colder storm arriving next weekend around Sunday, so will have to watch that. Still watching for the strengthening jet to undercut the ridge to our North starting around Christmas or Christmas weekend, possibly with the help of the MJO. The last week of December could be very snowy. This could be a December to remember.....stay tuned....BA

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