Thursday, December 10, 2009

Round 2......& 3.......

Storm is still sitting off the CA coast this morning. Looking at the satellite images it looks pretty wimpy. What will help to enhance the snowfall with this first storm will be the warmer air overriding the cold air already in place over the area. That alone can create snowfall. Models have been consistent with .5-.75 inches of liquid with the first storm which should begin by tonight and last into Friday night. With warmer air the snow ratios will be much less than the last storm, but snow levels will stay below lake level. Looking at 6-9 inches in the Village and 7-10 inches above 7000 ft. by Friday night.

Next storm is much stronger and will be on the heels of the first. The models have been trending further North towards Tahoe with the strongest area of the jetstream. Last night's GFS had the heaviest snow just to our North as opposed to our South yesterday, and this morning it has the bull's eye over Tahoe. The NAM this morning also agrees on bringing the heaviest precip over Tahoe. It would snow heavily from Friday night into Saturday night and snow showers could linger most of the day Sunday with additional energy from the storm moving through. If the models hold and the strongest part of the storm moves over Tahoe we are looking at an additional 2+ inches of liquid over Tahoe which would be 2+ ft. of snow.  Should have more confidence in the totals by tomorrow.

Starting Monday the ridge builds in and tries to deflect storms to our North. It will also raise temps and snow levels. The EC model suggest the storms are far enough South to bring us some light precip but the GFS keeps the storms to our North. My feeling is that we want the storms to stay to our North because the snow levels could be above 7000 ft. if we do see precip. Still thinking that the storms return Christmas week and could be bigger than the storms this week. Stay tuned.....BA

No comments: