Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Windshield Cracker.....

Watch out with these kind of temps when you turn on the defroster.

Another cold morning with Truckee at -15 again this morning. Some places to the North of Reno are hitting -20. According to the NWS these are some of the coldest low temps in 11 years and 19 years in some spots. I also forgot to mention yesterday that it snowed on Monday all the way down below 500 ft. in elevation. There were places around Sacramento that had snow accumulation for the first time since 1976.

Dry and cold again today as storms line up off the West Coast. It's looking like any snow will hold off until later in the day Thursday. It will be light snow but it will be continuous into Sat. and then increase in intensity with the next storm. This mornings models are suggesting .5-.75 inches of liquid over most of the area from Thursday into Sat. morning. Snow ratios will be 12-15:1 on average. That would suggest about 5-10 inches of snow.

Models are very inconsistent with the storm moving in Saturday into Sunday. First problem is where the main part of the jetstream takes aim. Models have been back and forth on Tahoe or just to the South of Tahoe. Last night's models suggested 2 ft. over most of Tahoe and 4 ft. to our South. Other runs yesterday had the heavier snow over Tahoe. This morning's latest model runs have backed off slightly on the amount of precip for everyone. Still looking like in general we will get around 2 additional feet of snow Saturday into Sunday. We are still a few days away so hopefully we can get more consisitency on precip amounts by tomorrow.

With a negative NAO a trough is going to want to drop and hold over the Eastern U.S. next week. This will hold a ridge over the Western U.S. We will need an enhanced Southern branch of the jetstream to undercut the ridge again as with the storm this past Monday. Looking for the MJO to strenghthen again over the next week and for El Nino to start having more of an affect as well. Should see stronger storms return by Christmas week......BA

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