Wednesday, December 2, 2009

Heard the Hype Yet?

Quick Nov. re-cap. Temps were 0.3 degrees below normal and we only had 32% of average precip.

Cold temps this week have kept the snowpack on the mountain from melting very much, so we will have a good base to start with this weekend. Snowmaking conditions have been ideal all week and Northstar has continued to add terrain. The same weather should continue until Friday.

Saturday, a cold front comes in from the North and could possibly spark off some snow showers, but not more than a dusting. Sunday night another cold front brings even colder air into the region dropping snow levels near 3000 ft. Meanwhile the low over the Rockies retrogrades back towards the West Coast and couples with the jetstream coming across the Pacific. This should lead to a cold powdery snow event Sunday night into Monday. A little early to talk amounts, but current model estimates are showing around 6-10 inches at lake level and 10-15 inches on top of the mountains. This is just the beginning of an active pattern.

Possible break Tuesday and then the strong jet, juiced by the remnants of typhoon Nida and the active MJO in the Western Pacific, slams into the West Coast. The jet stays aimed at the West Coast as another storm comes in for Friday and another for Sat./Sun. This could be a 5 day period of very heavy precip amounts. Yesterday the EC model was suggesting up to 19 inches of liquid over the Sierra in the 5 day period. That seems a bit excessive to me with the minimum snow amount where it stays all snow being 15 ft. Models are in a big of disagreement on how warm the storms get, but this mornings GFS model trended even colder and keeps snow levels below lake level all week. Confidence is greatly increasing in the liklihood of big storms next week, just have to iron out the details of snow levels and amounts. Either way I think the Sierra is in for at least several feet of snow, even in areas where it goes from snow to rain back to snow.

Looking longer range, the pattern looks to possibly stay active but become more typical with storms every few days with breaks in between. Stay tuned for more details on the storms next week.....BA

No comments: