Thursday, December 3, 2009

Brrrrrring It On!

Over the next few days the posts will just be tweaking the details on the upcoming stormy pattern developing this weekend.  Quick note on Northstar, they been taking advantage of the cold by hammering the snowmaking and have lots of trails with a good base for the snow to fall on.

Want to first emphasize the cold air that is coming in this weekend. Usually I just jump straight to snow talk, but there is really cold air coming with the cold fronts this weekend. Highs in the 40's the next three days will be replaced with highs in the 20's on the mountains Sunday and the 30's at lake level. Monday will be even colder with the mountains possibly staying in the teens and the mid 20's at lake level. This will make any snow that falls very powdery.

Could see some light snow showers Saturday and Sunday with the arrival of the cold air and instability, but nothing significant. A storm coming down from Canada associated with the reinforcing shot of cold air Sunday night, will have a better shot of bringing accumulating snowfall. It should be able to tap some moisture off the ocean and bring snow to the area Sunday night and Monday. Models are still split on the amount of precip the storm brings. The snow to water ratios will be high with the cold air in place so it won't take that much for a decent amount of snow to fall. Latest GFS model has the bulk of the moisture going into Southern CA, but still gives us enough moisture for a general 6-12 inches across Tahoe. If the European model is correct that would go up.

Looks like Tuesday could be the one day with a break before a series of storms hit the West Coast starting Wednesday. Models today suggesting that typhoon Nida does not have as much of an affect on the jetstream so amounts of moisture wouldn't be outrageous. Still, we have an active MJO (an area of convective storm activity) located in the Western Pacific that will be juicing the jetstream and helping to add lots of subtropical moisture. Losing Nida may be a good thing as the less warm moisture the better for snow levels. We could be seeing a storm on Wed., Fri., and Sun., with increasing energy with each storm. There won't really be a break between storms so we may have 5 days straight of snowfall.

Details should become more clear over the weekend with regards to amounts and snow levels. Right now snow levels still don't look to get above 7000 ft. and several feet of snow seem likely. Stay tuned....BA

Anyone still watching the sleeping sun? Only 13 more days this month to tie last years record breaking year of 2nd quietest sunspot year in the last 100 years.

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