Thought I'd start with an interesting figure. After having 98% of average precip in Dec. for the Tahoe basin our snowpack as of our last storm on Jan. 2nd is 85% of average as compared to 55% the same time last year. The snow season is still early and we have plenty of time to get some big storms to catch up and even go ahead of average.
Not much change for the next week, possibly exactly a week starting today. The large ridge will drift to a postion directly over us today and stall. Today should be the warmest day as the winds stay light. Temps started out at 10 degrees this morning in Truckee, but by this afternoon everyone should be well into the 50's. Models even indicate a layer of warmer air in the 60's between the valleys and the crests, so that could be a decent portion of the mountain for skiing today, so dress in layers. Temps won't be as warm as today but mild in the 50's thru the weekend. Saving grace for snowmakers will be very low dewpoints in the single digits!
Pattern change is very evident now on the models as they are catching on to the idea of a retrgression in both the PNA and the ridge along the West Coast. The latest model run this morning shows the trough in the East beginning to move offshore starting Monday the 19th. This will allow a progressive flow to start up once again. At the same time it shows the ridge over the West coast beginning to shift East and another ridge forming out at about 140w in the Pacific. This allows the cold arctic air to sink westward into our area by the middle of next week. With the ridge in this location storms would come down just to our East drawing down some very cold air, and possibly setting off some snow showers with the cold unstable air.
Models also catching onto the idea of further retrogression of the ridge in the Pacific out to near 150-160w by the week of the 25th. The PNA is also forecasted to be negative by this time. This allows the cold air to stay as well as opens the storm door to storms coming in straight off the ocean with moisture. The models should continue to catch onto this pattern change and become more consistent once the change begins to take place. I will keep you updated on the coming cold and snow, until then get out and wash your car or do something to jinx the warm weather. BA
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Posts
4 comments:
I am going to wash my car right now!
Love your blog!
I don't know anything about meteorology, but reading your blog is both fascinating and applicable. Keep it up!!
Once again your the only guy I trust round these parts, thanks for making this drought livable!
It's a dangerous job putting your neck on the line predicting so far out but someone has to do it. I haven't had a powder day yet this year. I was out of town both storms, but still had to shovel it when I got home. So I want it to storm as much as anyone.
Post a Comment