Tuesday, November 1, 2011

It's That Time Again......

It's November 1st and it's time to start up the weather discussions for another exciting season. We have some weather to talk about right off the bat.

There is a cold and snowy pattern coming up starting tomorrow and lasting about a week. I have been watching this pattern change coming and you will feel it when you walk outside tomorrow, and then see it on Thursday.

The first part of this change will be the colder air from the first cold front moving in tonight. Highs will only be in the 40's for the next two days. Then with the ridge out near 150w we will have a few cold lows drop down the coast bringing us snow. Snow levels will be well below lake level through the period and it looks like 3 possible storms. The first coming in on Thursday and then another for Saturday and then the final one the middle of next week.

None of the storms have much moisture, but with this first one the air is so cold that we will get some help from the high snow:water ratios. Right now it looks like around .25-.5 inches of liquid but with temps dropping down to 20 degrees or lower Thursday night we could see 20:1 snow ratios or better. So that means 5-10 inches are possible above up top where it's coldest with probably 4-8 inches up on the mountain and 2-4 inches in the Village by Friday.

That starts up about a week of this cold and unsettled weather pattern. Another weak cold storm looks to drop in for Sunday and another around next Wed. and snow amounts look be even less with these storms. Throughout the period I would expect Northstar to continue adding to the totals with snow making.

Looking long-range there really isn't too much going on that will help to continue the pattern. It looks as if the ridge-trough pattern globally will shift East and the ridge will be back off of our coast to possibly bring back milder temps and drier weather around mid-month. Looking at some of the seasonal weather models they are suggesting the trough with its cold and snowy weather shift East for the second half of November. They also suggest an above average and drier than average December for the West Coast before a flip to cold and snowy in January.

That would line up will with analogs from history and with La Nina. Many times in La Nina Winter doesn't really start to get going until after Christmas. Of course those are super long-range models and so you take them with a grain of salt. My forecast has been for a later start to Winter this year despite a few shots of cold and snow here in the Fall. It may just be that.

Looking at today's La Nina update from NOAA the water off the coast looks to have stopped warming finally this week and maybe even cooled a little. In the ENSO region the La Nina regions 1+2 & 4 warmed with 1+2 neutral now, but the water in the middle in regions 3 & 3.4 cooling slightly to -1.1. Forecasts are still for strengthening of La Nina going into Winer but now the modles have backed off on the peak strength. I said I didn't buy into the strenght when we looked at the forecast a couple of weeks ago and now the models are pulling back. I am only expecting a moderate La Nina this Winter and my snowfall forecast of average to 5% above average are based on that.

Stay tuned for updates on the snow this week....BA

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