Wednesday, February 9, 2011

The Revenge of La Nina.....

I haven't been posting everyday this week because nothing is changing and that is a very good sign for us. Consistency in the models everyday just increases confidence in the coming weather pattern next week. I hope you haven't given up on winter yet because La Nina is not happy that she has not had her chance yet to blast the West Coast with cold and snow during real winter thanks to the -AO and +PNA the past 6 weeks. She is ready for revenge and it is going to be sweet for us.

For Northstar the season isn't half over until this weekend so there is still plenty of winter headed our way. It's a stretch, but if we can get as much snow the second half of winter as we did the first half we will be talking over 500 inches of snow. Only need 4.5 feet to hit the seasonal average and we could easily get that by the end of the month.

I am ready to once again be the only weather person to start talking snowfall totals a week or more out. This is something I like to do because it gives you an idea of what may be coming even though the details can change.

So anyway let's get to the good stuff, the snowfall for next week and beyond. It looks like we are going to be in the perfect pattern the next 2 weeks or more of the ridge out at 160-170w and a nice long wave trough will sit in the East Pacific into the West coast. This will allow several low pressures to setup in the Northeast Pacific and spin waves of moisture into the West coast. Some of these will have subtropical moisture taps but the lows will spin in plenty of cold for all snow.

The first low will be in the Northeast Pacific by Monday and will send the first wave into the coast by Monday night. We should wake up to snowfall on Tuesday morning. The low will spin several waves of moisture into the coast with what looks to be 2 heavier bursts on Tuesday and Thursday. Preliminary estimates from the Euro for Tue-Fri is 2-3 inches of liquid which would be in the 2-4 foot range. That doesn't account for higher snow ratios that could occur with colder air. I think that is a good starting point but in the Tuesday-Saturday time frame that could be shooting low.

We should see a brief break sometime over President's weekend as the pattern reloads with a new ridge at 170w and a new low in the Northeast Pacific. Then we could do the same thing all over again the following week with similar snowfall amounts. Looking in the super long-range fantasy charts and the teleconnection forecast the pattern could reload a third time towards the end of the month. Even if it doesn't we should have gotten plenty of snow from the previous 2 weeks.

The long range can change but confidence in big snowfall next week is high and continues to increase daily as the models have been singing the same tune for over a week now. It's snowing again in Dallas today but if it's 80 degrees there next week and 70 on the East Coast we should be getting blasted with cold and snow. Stay tuned.......BA

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