Saturday, December 18, 2010

Day 2......

Northstar is having an incredible start to the season with the stronger storms not allowing Northstar to be shadowed by the crest. Therefore, Northstar has now received 56% of their annual snowfall average with the 27 inches that fell in the past 24 hours. The snow mixed with rain overnight in the Village, but it was all snow at the base lodge with 16 inches accumulating. We are just getting started with an even bigger storm expected to push through tonight and Sunday.

Don't let your guard down yet as one of the strongest 24 hour storms in about 3 years prepares to move in tonight. Precip will be lighter today ahead of the storm tonight. After snow levels drop to lake level today we could see 3-6 inches accumulate by evening in the Village. Above the base lodge we should see another 6-12 inches by this evening. Then tonight a strong wave moves in and it dumps. Should see another 18-24 inches tonight and then 18-24 more tomorrow above 7000 ft. for a 24 hour total of 3-4 feet. It could be the biggest 24 hour total since January 3rd-4th 2008. In the Village 6-12 inches tonight & another 6-12 inches tomorrow. This is a little low in the Village only because some models suggest a brief mix to rain again in the early morning hours before going back to snow Sunday morning. Several more inches should finish us off Sunday night for 48 hour snowfall totals of 3-5+ feet above the base lodge, and 2-3 feet in the Village by Monday morning.

On Monday the snow levels are well below lake level and snow showers should continue with several more inches expected. Then things get a little more confusing as the trough off the coast digs really deep on Tuesday. Models are split on weather we have a break on Tuesday because the subtropical jetstream pulls away from the Polar Jetstream and moves the precip South of us, or they stay merged and the moisture is pulled back North for more heavy snowfall. Today let's go in the middle and say it stays colder with snow levels below lake level and light snow Tuesday before the cold front swing through with heavier snow on Wednesday. With that solution we are looking at 2-3 more feet instead of the doubling down on the 3-6 feet from this weekend that was the trend a couple days ago. Will have to watch this closely because it will make a big difference on the amount of snow we receive.

We look to dry out starting on Thursday and lasting into Saturday. That will provide much better driving conditions for all of the people coming up for Christmas weekend and the incredible skiing conditions. Looks like a colder storm is still on tap for Sunday that could bring a foot or more to the resort. By the end of the month and into the new year the ridge in the Pacific may set up around 150-160w which is our ideal location for colder storms to drop in from the North. Stay tuned..........BA

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