Monday, November 22, 2010

3 Down, 1 To Go.......

Update 5 p.m.:

Storm is looking nice on Satellite this afternoon with a curl forming off the Washington Coast. This storm has a nice tap across the ocean that is going to bring quite a bit of snow tonight ahead of the Arctic Front. Snow should start later this evening with heavy snowfall overnight and heaviest tomorrow morning with as the Arctic front passes. With the cold air we will have high snow ratios. NWS has upgraded their Winter Storm Warning to 10-20 inches at lake level & 2-3 feet above 7000 ft.

I am still thinking 10-20 at the base and 20-30 on top. This will put Northstar close to 25% of their annual average, and it's not even Thanksgiving yet! I knew a week ago when forecasting a storm this big this early in the season no one would believe it, but also it's been over a decade since it's happened and over 2 decades since a La Nina this strong in Nov. After a bit of a break in December we should see a bunch more of these type of storm cycles Jan.-March.

From This Morning:

Right on track Northstar picked up another 12-17 inches in the last 24 hours. That brings 3-day totals to over 4 feet at the base and over 5 feet on top. We may see a few inches today from passing snow showers before the final storm moves in tonight.

An Arctic front is working it's way down the West Coast today. That will increase snow showers again tonight and then bring a period of heavy snowfall tomorrow. This storm will be drawing moisture from the ocean so it will bring decent accumulations. Models this morning are all showing 1-1.5 inches of liquid with snow ratios running 15-20:1 at lake level, and 20-25:1 above 7000 ft. with this arctic air. That means another 15-20 inches at the base and 20-30 inches on top by Tuesday afternoon. We won't have the complete totals until Wednesday morning since it will be falling during the day Tuesday. That would bring 4 day totals to over 5 feet at the base and close to 7 feet on top. Looks like you have to go back to 1997 to find a storm series this big in November.

The arctic air will make things really cold the rest of the week, especially at night with clear skies and snowpack. The forecasted lows in Truckee are below zero Tues-Thurs nights. If the forecast holds that will break records set back in 1966. We will start to warm by Friday night as the next storm approaches.

Models are still all over the place with this weekends storm. The teleconnections over the East say we should have blocking form for December, but the strong jet in the West and negative PNA beg to differ. This battle may be what the models are struggling with. Either way we look to get at least light to moderate amounts of snowfall down to lake level by Sunday. Stay tuned.....BA

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