Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Wed. Storm Update........

Storm last night fell apart as it moved over Tahoe as expected. Only a light dusting fell with maybe an inch on top of the mountain.  That's ok because there is more on the way!

Sun is back out today and tomorrow with temps warming tomorrow ahead of the next storm. It may get just cold enough tonight to make snow, but it will be warmer tomorrow night with the warm South winds ahead of the storm.

Storm moves into Northern CA on Friday. Right now it looks as if the snow will start to fall Friday afternoon or evening. Models all day yesterday were consistent with bringing up to 1.5 inches of liquid over Tahoe. Overnight they have sped up the storm a bit which would limit the amount of time the heavy snow falls. This morning's latest moels suggest up to .75 inches of liquid. Snow levels will be low and temps will be cold which will increase snow ratios and snow amounts. Temps above 7000 feet will be 20 degrees or colder Friday night during the heaviest snowfall. At lake level temps will be in the mid 20's. That would suggest 15-20:1 snow ratios. Using the latest models that would suggest 7-11 inches at the Village with 10-15 inches above 7000 ft.  That is about half of what yesterday's models had, but still a good dump to start the season. Hopefully the storm will slow down and bring the totals higher.

Storm on Sunday looks to brush us to the North. Some models suggest only a dusting while a few others suggest up to a few inches of additional snow. Starting Monday the ridge moves bringing a break in the storms for Thanksgiving week. Should have some cold temps at night for snowmaking.

The MJO, although a bit weaker than last week, is moving into phase 4 on it's way towards the West Pacific. Looking at long-range models they may be picking up on this as a nice tap of moisture across the Pacific may form for the first week of Dec. Instead of storms diving in from the North we could see a series of wet storms that week with the flow coming in right off the Pacific. Snow levels on current models stay below 6000 ft.

Have some internet repairs done tomorrow morning so I may not be able to post until the evening. May be a good thing because Friday morning I will have the final snowfall estimates, no more see-sawing. BA

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