Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Tuesday Update.......

Getting excited for the Friday storm. Models trending a bitter wetter this morning. Looking like the best opening weekend for Northstar in a while with powder on the slopes.

When a series of storms come in the first one usually splits or falls apart as it breaks down the ridge allowing subsequent storms to roll in. That will be the job of tonight's storm. It is a powerful storm, but it will quickly lose moisture as it swings through Tahoe overnight. Total snowfall looks to be around an inch at the lake with 2 inches above 7000 ft., but this storm's job is just to moisten the atmosphere for the next storm. It should be cold enough behind the storm to make snow the next couple of nights with inversions disappearing.

The next storm is looking to slow down a bit more. The snow should hold off until the day Friday and the heavy snow until Friday night. Models have been consistent the past 24 hours with bringing over an inch of liquid to the Tahoe Basin. This morning's models put a bull's eye right over Tahoe of around 1.5 inches. This is a cold storm with snow levels dropping to 4000 ft., so the snow ratios will be high. At 32 degrees it is 10" of snow for every inch of liquid. at 20 degrees that doubles. Looking at the total liquid and the temps Friday night I'd say this morning's models would lay about 12-18" at the village with 18-24" on the mountain. A few more days of fluctuations, stay tuned....

Sunday storm looks like it may come a bit farther South and has the potential to add a few more inches before the ridge moves in next week giving us a break in storm activity.

Just a note, these storms are not caused by El Nino. El Nino's affects aren't normally felt until we get into winter. These storms are more indicative of La Nina with the Pac NW getting the brunt of the storms and Northern CA getting the bottom. Looking at yesterday's El Nino update it has leveled off for a couple of weeks now. Forecast is for it to begin to fade this month. Other forces in the atmosphere are at work and hopefully will be bringing us a big year. BA

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