Monday, November 30, 2009

Perfect Ingredients.......

Finally some consistency on the potential onslaught of storms next week from the models over the past day. The perfect ingredients may be coming together for a prolonged stormy period. More on that in a minute.

High pressure ridge has parked near the West Coast and will stay there all week. Dry weather and cool temps in the 40's on the mountains to near 50 at the Lake. Inversions will be present but overnight lows should be cold enough for snowmaking on a good portion of the mountain.

With the Arctic Oscillation being negative you will see the cold air over the Arctic be displaced Southward over the continent. Shots of Arctic air will be coming into the country during the week. Just an example is that there will be snow tonight all the way into Mexico along the Southwest border of Texas. As the high pressure ridge shifts and builds along the West Coast of Canada towards the end of the week, some of that cold air will move into CA next weekend. The cold front may bring some snow showers over the weekend, but doesn't look like much at the moment since the front is coming in from the North and East over land.

Meanwhile, the jetstream will be strengthening across the Pacific, with a little help from what was typhoon Nida, the MJO, and El Nino.  It will be forced under the high pressure building along the West Coast of Canada  and will slam right into CA.  This has been the theory for a couple of weeks looking at the teleconnections. Have been waiting for the models to catch on and they have started to. Let's hope they continue to. Last week they couldn't decide if we get 10 feet of snow next week or dry weather all week.

The past few winters we have not had a prolonged snow event, just one really big storm or two each year. Next week could begin a prolonged snow event meaning at least a week long. Below is a map of estimated precip for Dec. 8th - 16th, put together using several model outputs. The pink is over 5 inches of liquid. A little early to talk about any details as we are a week away, but snow levels are a concern when you get these big storm events. Looking at a few model runs the snow levels fluctuate throughout the week but never get above 7000 ft. Let's hope that is the case as well if this pattern sets up next week. Keep up the snow dances and prayers, they may be answered very soon.....BA

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