Tuesday, October 20, 2009

A Slippery Morning.....

Got a few inches up on top of the mtn. yesterday as is evident on the cams this morning. It snowed in town but didn't really stick. It did get cold enough for the wet decks & cars to freeze overnight as I found out as I slid down the stairs to my car this morning. Temps will begin to warm today & be in the 60's tomorrow thru Sunday.

Looking for a change in the pattern next week. Several storms are going to be coming in to our North. Going to have to watch them closely because one is most likely going to come far enough South to give us some snow, probably one closer towards the last weekend of the month. The storms going by to our North should keep the temps on the cooler side.

This map show the 3-month precip forecast that the National Weather Service (NWS) just put out. You can see that they are projecting a wet fall & start to winter for all of CA!

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In Monday's El Nino update region 1+2 warmed back to an even 0, region 3 stayed the same, region 3/4 warmed a tenth to .9, & region 4 warmed 2 tenths to 1.2. The SOI has also gone very negative the past 2 weeks & the 30 & 90 day average is now negative. There is also a warm Kelvin wave heading across the Pacific. This all suggests possible further strengthening of El Nino in the next couple of weeks. We will have to see at the end of the month how close the running average gets to 1.

8 comments:

memacooley9 said...

Stay snow worthy! Always err on the side of colder and more snow! Winter is coming and we need motivation!

Kipp Cooley

Anonymous said...

"This all suggest further strengthening in the next couple of weeks." Do you mean strengthening of incoming storms? of El Nino?

BA said...

El Nino

Kipp said...

El Nino, always unpredictable, could be wet, dry, warm, or cold. Let just stay snowtivated and hope. Anyone know any fancy dances?

BA said...

Kipp,

Have you been follwing the blog all fall? I've been suggesting that El Nino could mean a dry winter for us unless it fades away.

BA said...

I'm definitely snowtivated.

Kipp said...

I have come to conclusion that this El NiƱo has created a level of uncertainty and we all love that? Keeps us on our toes!

BA said...

Yes, definitely. It is very exciting, & we can add it to our toolbag of history at the end of the season.