Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Ice Fog & Heat Waves.....

Drove to work this morning thru 30 degrees & ice fog in Truckee. A nice little taste of winter before we are in the 80's again by this weekend. Not that uncommon to have warm falls during an El Nino. The below-avg. temps that can be the case in El Nino winters are from the increase in storminess which obviously decreases the amount of sunny/warm days.

Looking at long-range models & pattern it looks like a a pretty sure bet that the rest of September will be dry. I feel good about waiting for the first snow. I think the drier the first half of fall is the wetter the second half will be. That is not backed by any scientific data, just my theory after having wet starts to fall the past few years & then dry second halfs of fall. Anyone just re-joining these discussions after the summer, refer back to my ideas of the conditions going into this winter & what it could mean for the upcoming winter in my July 19th posting.

El Nino update yesterday showed slight cooling again. SSTs in all regions are now below 1 degree above avg. Only good sign was some westerly wind bursts & convection in the central equatorial Pacific. The majority of forecast models now have El Nino maxing out at or below 1.5 degrees. About half now have El Nino peaking in Nov. & the other half peaking in Dec. This would mean that in the months where El Nino has the greatest affect, Jan-Mar, it would be waning.

That may not be a bad thing for us in Northern California as El Nino usually shifts the storm track into Southern California which is a 50/50 chance for us to have a big winter, same as La Nina when the storm track shifts to the Pacific Northwest. We could use something in between. Meanwhile, enjoy the extended summer the next couple of weeks. BA

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