Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Don't Trust Everything You See....

Yesterday the new El Nino update came out. Things have held steady since last week. The SST's in two regions went down a tenth of a degree & up a tenth of a degree in the other two. The average remains at around .8 above avg. The ONI for June, July, Aug. is .7, so that is 2 months in a row now above .5 with 3 more to go for full fledged El Nino.

I know that some of you remember the models at the beginning of the summer predicting a huge El Nino. Some of you commented them to me when I said I didn't think the El Nino would be strong this year. In June the models showed that the SST's would be at 1.5 by August & 1.8 by Sept. They are still at .8. They also showed them going to 2.5 at the peak this winter & the latest models only go as high as 1.5. This is the problem with models, it makes you wonder how anyone trusts any climate model out more than a week or two, let alone 50-100 years from now.

The SOI, which we have been watching, is the difference in pressures between Tahiti & Darwin. During a strengthening El Nino this number should be trending negative. It was July into August, but the end of August into September it has been positive. The 30 & 90 day avergages should be positive in the next day or two. Also, the sub-subsurface temps continue to cool, especially in the Eastern equatorial Pacific. This would indicate a weakening El Nino. The models keep showing a sharp spike in the temps happening soon, but that is because they think El Nino should be stronger than it is right now. I am beginning to think this stays weak or briefly moderate. Joe Bastardi mentioned the same on his blog yesterday.

Although a stronger El Nino favors us for more precip, a weaker one keeps us in line with the conditions that were present going into the winter of 51-52. Since it has been almost 60 years since then there is not much proof that these conditions will repeat themselves, but that is what we will have to hold onto in hopes of a big year this year. The affects of the El Nino normally becoming greater in Nov. & Dec. & into the winter. The last few years we have had precip in Sept. & Oct., & then a dry Nov. I am hoping that we can flip that this year & have a wet Nov. & Dec. after a what looks to be a dry Sept. We'll see what happens in Oct., I'll keep you posted as I find new info. BA


Anonymous said...

Is el niƱo still on? Is it still looking like a wet year? I'm all in for it. It will be nice to have a wet year for a change. During the 06-07 period, we could never flush the toilet. Loving your blog. Hope you don't discontinue your blog like Ed Berry.

BA said...

Ha, I don't plan on discontinuing, I think Ed was maybe forced to stop by the people he works for for some reason.

Despite what you hear I think El Nino is not going to get very strong & then fade out over the winter. El Nino only promises us wet year when it is a strong one. I'm still watching for other reasons that we can have a big year, but ultimately noone really knows the future.

Skye said...

When do the ski resorts usually open? Here's the real question. When is there powder usually??? I have been really curious about the weather patterns here ever since I came up here for the early March big storm. When do you think the storms are usually strongest? I live down near San Francisco, so I don't get much snow, so the more precipitation, the better.