Monday, August 10, 2009

Weekly El Nino Update.....

I think I'm going to try & post on Mondays when the new El Nino info comes out, unless some other major weather event is happening. Until the snow season start of course & then it's back to posting everyday.

Today's El Nino report shows the temps cooling slightly again. This is interesting for a couple of reasons. First, this is the point in which most of the computer models show El Nino starting to strengthen going into the 09-10 winter. For two weeks now the temps have been heading downward, which I believe could be caused in part by the cold Pacific surrounding the warm area. Secondly, there is a burst of Westerly winds in the Western Pacific, an increase in moisture & convection along the dateline, & the 30 day avg. of the SOI is finally going negative since the 6th. These would all indicate that El Nino is going strong & creating the effects that it should. The next couple weeks should be interesting as I would expect the Ocean temps to rise, especially with a burst of winds from the Western Pacific.

The effects of El Nino on our area usually get stronger the later we go into the winter, but it could help in feeding what are normally moisture starved storms in the fall.

I finally have the precip totals for July. The Tahoe Basin reported 23% of avg., & the Truckee River Basin reported 32% of avg. The individual station totals are interesting in the summer with the isolation of thunderstorms. Some areas can have no rain which is what a bunch of reporting stations showed, & some reported a ton of rain. 2 stations in Truckee reported practically no rain while one just north of Northstar at 6500 ft. reported 182% of avg. Another outlier was the South Lake Tahoe airport at 150% of avg. The Lake Tahoe Basin is 78% of avg. on the water year & the Truckee River Basin is now 87% of avg.

Also, many of you have noticed the cold start to Aug. Thanks in part to the cold storm the end of last week we have started the first 1/3 of the month at 7.7 degrees below avg. On our way to yet another below avg. month. BA


Mat said...

Hey Bryan, couldn't find out how to email you directly, but I wanted to get your opinion on something.

Do you think this will affect the 09-10 Winter Outlook?

Anonymous said...

Hey Bryan, haven't seen any updates in the last couple weeks and just curious if there is any updates about the possibility of el nino and the effects it's existence/non-existence will have on the 09-10 season?

Keeping my fingers crossed for a killer season! Thanks!