Thursday, November 10, 2011

A Miss this Weekend But Thanksgiving Could be White

The track of the storm off the coast continues to be further and further South down the coast before coming inland this weekend. The cold front dropping down the West Coast for this weekend has been trending more North and East of us. That means that basically the two storms are going to circle us with precip and leave us dry in the middle. We should see clouds and maybe some light snow showers on Sunday and Monday but nothing more than a dusting to a couple of inches on the mountain.

The good news is that the cold air will be reinforced so temperatures will continue to be in the 40’s during the day and the 20’s at night into next week. With the cold temps at night the snowmaking will continue on the mountain.

Next week the weather models are in agreement that the ridge of high pressure out in the Pacific will shift slightly East, just enough to keep the trough along the West Coast from digging far enough South to bring us any storms. It should stay cool however and this is just the pattern evolving into what should be a series of storms with the biggest being around Thanksgiving.

Taking a look at the long-range global teleconnection forecasts for the next two weeks things seem to be falling into place for the perfect pattern to get some storms in here starting the end of next week. The weather models do show a reaction in the pattern as the ridge in the Pacific looks like it is going to retrograde out to a position just South of the Aleutian Islands by next weekend.

What that all means is that the trough will be able to dig down the West coast and with a nice wavelength the door will be open to bigger storms. Currently the long-range models have a storm or two for next weekend of moderate size and then a bigger one for Thanksgiving. Although the models have been all over the place the past couple of weeks, they have been very consistent all week on the pattern for the week of Thanksgiving. Keep your fingers crossed that this forecast holds. BA

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